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Silver AnalogPeter Vogel This week two investment firms came out expressing their disbelief that silver has any more upside, so investors may start getting nervous and begin asking the same question. Back on Feb 12, 2014 I wrote an article titled “Coffee to Outperform Precious Metals” and within the article I stated that Coffee looked to reach $1.75 per pound – today it reached $1.78. I had recommended buying the Coffee ETF – JO @ 23.28 and selling it at 32.99 for a 47% profit in 21 days. What I did not mention in that article was the interesting similarities between the charts of Coffee and Silver. Often times you can get what is called an ‘analog’, which simply means a representation of data that is similar when compared to data of a different origin. Coffee and Silver are the two sets of data of different origin that are being compared in the chart below, from year 2001~2014, with coffee represented by the orange line and silver by the black line. The coffee price scale is on the left side of the chart and silver on the right. What is most interesting, is that of the 7 paired bottoms (coffee=red arrow:silver=blue arrow), coffee bottomed before silver 6 times during significant moves, which coffee subsequently followed. You will no doubt notice that the most recent move in coffee has been one of the most significant advances during the last 13 years. This begs the question, is silver next? The coffee price has almost reached its 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2 year decline. For silver to achieve the same level, it would have to go to just over $30 per ounce. Although I have never been a big fan of analogs, given that so many commodities are rallying strongly, there is little reason for silver or gold to be excluded. (Click on image to enlarge)
### Peter Vogel About Peter Vogel: The Writer of this Blog began his investment career in 1981, first as a Floor Trader and then as an Investment Advisor for a major securities firm. During that time he acquired several securities and options licenses and became registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). He also co-founded a venture capital organization that helped finance and commercialize a number of new technologies. Since the beginning of his 33+ years of investing, he developed his own style of technical analysis by focusing on ratio analysis and money management techniques, creating methods that often allow him to buy near precise turning points with confidence. His decision to publish this information stems from recognizing the abundance of misinformation and bad analysis that exists and the need to help investors understand how to understand and view the markets and invest properly. Some of his favorite trading mentors are Larry Williams, Martin Pring, Thomas DeMark and William O’Neil. When it comes to deciding whether or not to use an investment writer’s service, you should understand that their background or so-called “proprietary” gimmickry really does not matter. The evidence in this statement bears itself out by the simple fact that Michelle Williams at the age of 17 won the World Trading Championship in 1997 making a 1000% return, which has not been surpassed since. The only thing that matters is whether their service can help you make money. 321gold Ltd |
