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Two Presidents: parallel lives, parallel fates?William R. Thomson US President George Bush (Bush43) and Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) would, at first glance, seem an odd couple. The first, Bush43, is the President of the world's hegemon; the second, GMA, is the President of a small, struggling South East Asian nation. But first glances are deceptive. The reality is that their fates are intricately intertwined as has been the fate of the Philippines since the US first landed there in 1898. As if to symbolize this relationship, both arrived in office on 21 January 2001 in disputed circumstances and both face the increased possibility of exiting office at elections scheduled in May this year in the Philippines and November in the United States. Both Presidents are unique in being the children of past presidents. In Bush's case he is only the second president in US history to the son of a past president. The previous case being that of John Adams and his son, John Quincy Adams, two hundred years before. In GMA's case, she is the only offspring of a past President of the Philippines to occupy Malacanang Palace. Her father, President Diosdado Macapagal, was in office from 1961-65. Running for re-election, he was defeated by Ferdinand Marcos, who was running for the office for the first time. They are both the children of privilege, educated at the top schools, Harvard and Yale in Bush's case, Georgetown in GMA's, and trained from an early age to aspire to public office. Whilst Bush affects a populist Texan demeanour, he like GMA reflects his background and lacks the common touch. In his controversial election in 2000, Bush famously lost the popular vote but was elected by a razor thin margin in the electoral college after the US Supreme Court, packed with Republican appointees, declared him the victor in the hotly disputed Florida election, whilst refusing to allow a state-wide recount and disallowing various appeals. To add to the conspiratorial air of things, Bush's brother, Jeb Bush, the Florida Governor, controlled the Florida count and the family's Svengali James Baker, the former Secretary of State to Bush's father, masterminded the legal process. GMA was elected Vice President, in her own right, in the 1998 election that brought President Estrada to power. When he was removed, as the result of a middle class uprising against his incompetent, corrupt rule, GMA was declared president by the Philippine Supreme Court after the Armed Forces had switched allegiance to her. Since coming to power both Presidents have had to struggle with the effects of a global recession triggered first by the meltdown from the bubble economy of the late 1990s in the US and its after effects combined with the so-called war on terrorism, in the aftermath of September 11. President Bush has overseen the most dramatic deterioration in the nation's finances as he first slashed taxes then piled on both domestic and defence expenditures to meet newly perceived threats and buy off special interests. The currency is now in the midst of a severe decline as it adjusts to a record current account deficit and the economy is failing to produce sufficient jobs to reduce unemployment. GMA has had her own insurgency in the south to handle and has failed to get a hold of national finances as the country's tax revenues have plunged and the fiscal deficit mushroomed. Of equal importance, whilst personally honest, she has singularly failed to get a grip on corruption, which is now, by common acceptance, at near record levels. But she has, like her father before her, firmly aligned herself with the United States in the war against terrorism, expecting American military and developmental assistance in return. This decision is controversial in the Philippines in its own right, but of more importance is whether she can show progress in raising the living standards in the country. In this, her record is poor, both in absolute terms and by comparison with her neighbours such as Thailand and Malaysia. Their fight for re-election President Arroyo Efforts are underway to discredit him saying that he in ineligible because, as the illegitimate son of an American mother, he should have taken her nationality and cannot be classified as a native born Filipino, a constitutional requirement for the Presidency. As far-fetched as the case may seem, the decision is in the hands of the Philippines Supreme Court, most of whom owe their loyalty to GMA. A decision is expected this week. If it goes against Poe he can be expected to appeal - to the courts and to the masses. An unfavourable decision could well lead to civil disturbances if Poe's supporters believe the election is being stolen from them. At that point, the military could once again influence events and a former police general and current Senator and presidential contender, Panfilio Lacson, might play an important role. Although popular among the Filipino Chinese community, he is feared as a potential strong man. But GMA has some important cards in her favour. The Church supports her as does the US Administration. (Throughout their contentious history, the candidate supported by the US has never failed to win. Uniquely, in the last election, when Estrada won, the US had a hands-off policy.) GMA is also the first sitting President since Marcos to face re-election and, therefore, the first to control the counting procedures under the Commission on Elections. A decision to drop electronic voting machines in favour of paper ballots has already been taken recently. GMA's position would be considerably enhanced if the candidate of the middle classes, former Senator Raul Roco, could be persuaded to stand down. The final result is therefore uncertain at this point but Mrs. Arroyo's candidacy is severely troubled. Peace and continuity would best be served by her winning but that does not appear easy in a fair election at this moment. If she fails, she will go down like her father after one term because she was seen as ineffectual although, in fairness, good governance is presently severely constrained by the constitutional set-up that protects the wealthy few with their entrenched and vested interests. Constitutional change is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for progress. Without it the threat of civil instability cannot be discounted in the medium term. President Bush Suddenly, he faces the prospect of facing a war hero opponent with credible political experience. The wider societal trends may be turning again in the Democrats favour. The Republicans have always been split between the authoritarian conservatives and the free market libertarians. Reagan was the latter. Many of Bush's supporters in 2000 thought he was also. Instead, in the wake of 9/11, his opponents claim his policies have a McCarthyist anti-civil rights authoritarian tinge, and are in thrall to the large corporations at the expense of free competition. In what is expected to be a close election, the critical factor is likely to be turnout of the candidates' core voter blocks. The Democrats are motivated, if only to get Bush out, whilst some of Bush's supporters from 2000 are demotivated. History does not favour Bush. The Adams family served only one term each. In addition, Bush is the fourth President in US history to lose the popular vote but be elected on the basis of the electoral college. All the previous three such presidents served just one term. William R. Thomson Bill Thomson is Chairman of the Siam Recovery Fund and advises governments and several asset management companies and institutions in Asia. He was formerly Vice President of a major international bank in Asia and is a former US Treasury official. He writes widely and we really appreciate his words of wisdom at 321gold. 321gold Inc |
