Why we like those Wretched Gold Stocks Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre The Texas Hedge Report May 13, 2005 Courtesy of www.texashedge.com Gold and silver mining stocks carry with them far greater risk than does the bullion. Mining is an utterly wretched business - don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It's an extremely capital intensive and cyclical business whose hallmarks have been a sickeningly low return on assets for nearly two decades now. In buying a mining stock, one is not getting a Coca Cola or a Walgreen's where steady earnings and free cash flow growth are the norm. Rather, especially after the brutal years in the 90's, many of these companies' profits are anemic and are only now beginning to rebound. In addition to metal price risk, one also has to face operational risk in a mining stock. Say, for instance, gold goes to $500, but a mining company gets squeezed by high energy costs, rising local currencies, or poor mining results, an investor in a gold mining company runs the risk of missing out on the metal's appreciation if he is in the wrong stock. How frustrating that would be. However, along with operational risk comes operational reward. Let's compare physical bullion appreciation vs. a hypothetical miner below. First we look at the unlevered gains an individual would achieve from physical ownership (again futures and leverage could magnify gains or losses but we would not recommend it on an individual level). $425 Current Spot Gold . . % increase $500 Spot Gold  17.6% $600 Spot Gold  41.2% We can see from above that an increase from the current gold level of $425 an ounce to $500 yields a 17.6% increase and an increase to $600/oz. would yield a profit of 41.2% - all of which are taxed at the higher collectible rate. A miner's profit could expand on an equal physical price appreciation at a far greater rate: XYZ Mining Company - Mines 1 oz. annually at $ 350 total production costs, 100 shares outstanding Here one can see the benefits of operational leverage - an equal metal price increase as above increases the miner's earnings 100% and 233% respectively. The leverage obviously cuts both ways, but if gold and silver rise as we believe they will, a lot of the mining stocks will be big beneficiaries. more follows for subscribers. . . May 12, 2005 Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre Archives Texas Hedge Report Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre email: admin@texashedge.com For more information, go to http://www.texashedge.com. Recent Gold/Silver/$$$ essays at 321gold: Apr 04 Gold Stocks Strong As Stk Mkt Implodes  Morris Hubbartt 321gold    Apr 04 Gold Stocks Defy Markets  Adam Hamilton 321gold    Apr 02 The Dogs of War are Howling for Gold  Bob Moriarty 321gold    Apr 01 Tariffs & Supreme Currency Gold  Stewart Thomson 321gold    Mar 31 41st Anniversary of Eiffel Tower Flight  Bob Moriarty 321gold    Mar 30 Stk Mkt Carnage & Soaring Gold  captainewave 321gold    321gold Inc