   |
|||
The "Zig-Zag" Fed Zaps the US Dollar, Ignites Gold RallyBy Gary Dorsch The Fed's June 29th communiqué was riddled with ambiguity about the future direction of US interest rates, and perhaps the only thing that everyone understands correctly, is that Fed chief Ben Bernanke zig-zagged from its hawkish rhetoric of June 5th. The Fed did leave itself some room for maneuver for hiking rates further, but the growing consensus is the Fed is going on vacation this summer. At a time when the US capital markets require $3.2 billion every business day to cover the country's external deficits, foreign currency traders who bought the US dollar since Bernanke's hawkish outburst on June 5th, wanted to hear Captain James T. Kirk, preparing his crew for an epic battle against the global inflation dragon. Instead, what traders heard on June 29th, was a two-handed Princeton economist, whose tough rhetoric about fighting inflation, had come down several notches from just 24-days earlier. One the one hand, "Moderation in the growth of aggregate demand, should help to limit inflation pressures over time. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained." However, on the other hand, "the high levels of resource utilization and prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures," the Fed said. The June 29th propaganda that "Inflation expectations remained contained," stands in sharp contrast to Bernanke's tough rhetoric on June 5th. The Fed "must continue to resist any tendency for increases in energy and commodity prices to become permanently embedded in core inflation. These are unwelcome developments. The medium term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny. Possible future increases in these prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook," Bernanke said. Bernanke's balancing act pleased everyone except short sellers betting on a tougher Fed. The Dow Jones Industrials soared 217 points in a knee jerk reaction, its best day in two years, and Treasury note prices rebounded about 1% on short-covering. Faced with a choice of defending the US dollar or defending US home prices, Bernanke dropped the greenback, catapulting gold 7% higher or $40 per ounce, silver soaring 10% or $1 per ounce, and crude oil jumping $2 per to $74 per barrel.  But "Helicopter"
Ben Bernanke's reputation as a super-dove on monetary policy,
has been impacting the global money markets since his nomination
to lead the Fed on October 24th. Since then, the gold market
in US$ terms has advanced by 33% to roughly $620 per ounce, while
the US Treasury's 10-year note yield has climbed roughly 70 basis
points to 5.15%, a four year high. The American public has turned
against the Fed's 2-year campaign of interest-rate increases,
concerned about rising mortgage payments, and deflating home
prices. A Bloomberg/LA Times poll conducted June 24th to June
27th, showed by a 65% to 22% margin, Americans oppose another
rate increase by the Fed. High home prices allow US households
to keep on spending and not saving. The US personal saving rate,
as a percentage of disposable income, slipped to a negative 1.7%
in May. A pause in the Fed's rate hike campaign in August comes at a critical time when the Bank of Japan is laying the ground work for a quarter-point rate hike to 0.25% on July 14th. The BOJ is set to raise rates for the first time in six years as the Japanese economy is posting 57 months of solid growth, and is finally pulling out of deflation, with core consumer prices rising for seven straight months through May. "Monetary policy decisions should be made early, and changes should be made in small increments. But at the same time, it should be done in a gradual manner. Changing interest rates will prevent an overheating in the economy, minimize swings in economic cycles, and lead to a long-lasting expansion, said BOJ chief Toshihiko Fukui told the National Press Club on June 20th.  Foreign currency traders knocked the dollar 2-yen lower to 114.50-yen, after the Fed's zig-zagged and signaled it was close to the end of its rope of raising rates. The upcoming week's main event will be US non-farm payrolls data for June, due on July 7th. Also, traders want to see if the BoJ has enough independence to buck the ruling LDP party, which wants rates kept at zero percent. Japan's government has 774 trillion yen ($6.7 billion) of outstanding debt, or 150% of its GDP, and wants to avoid paying higher interest rates. "Monetary policy is up to the BoJ, but the bank needs to continue working as one with the government to insure that the economy will not go back into deflation," said LDP Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe on July 3rd. "The BOJ needs to continue zero interest rates for the time being to support the economy," and to keep the yen weak. Japanese Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano told the BOJ on July 3rd, to keep the overnight loan rate at zero percent. "Looking at growth data and other economic indicators, it's accurate to say that conditions are not in place for an end to abnormal monetary policy, and that they are just starting to fall into place," he said.  Japan's Nikkei rebounded 10% from a panic bottom low of 14,000 on June 13th, to above 15,500, on ideas the Fed is done raising rates for now. Meanwhile, Japan's jobless rate fell to 4.0% in May, an eight-year low, and consumer core prices were 0.6% higher from a year earlier, reinforcing expectations the BoJ will raise interest rates on July 14th. The number of salaried Japanese employees rose above 55 million for the first time ever last month. The recent turmoil in the Nikkei-225,
which sliced off $864 billion of market value in four weeks,
won't deter the BOJ from hiking rates. "Central banks in
three major industrial nations have clearly changed course on
monetary policy. As the markets realize this, it is natural for
traders to be more cautious. There is no indication that falls
in share prices have affected the real economy. Recent falls
in share prices are within reasonable adjustments to earlier
rises that had been prompted by loose monetary conditions,"
said BOJ chief Fukui on June 20th. Bank of Korea meets on July 7th to discuss Rate hike Across the Sea of Japan, traders are waiting on the Bank of Korea's July 7th policy meeting, amid speculation that the central bank will authorize another quarter-point rate hike to 4.50%. The BOK shocked the markets on June 8th, and raised its overnight call rate target by a quarter-point to 4.25%, the fourth rise since October. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong-tae explained, "The BoK views the economy as continuing to exhibit upward momentum, with exports, private consumption and capital investment all growing." "Although a strong won and a fall in farm product prices have helped contain inflation, oil prices will likely remain firm and with the recovery in domestic demand lasting more than a year, inflation pressure will grow. We will have to keep watching the trend in real estate prices because they continue to increase despite various efforts by the government to curb them," BoK chief Lee said. South Korean exports in June jumped to a record $28.27 billion in June, or 19.2% higher from a year earlier, led by increased shipments of flat screens and ships. Imports rose 22.1% in June from a year earlier to $26 billion, thus generating a trade surplus of $2.28 billion, just below a $2.42 billion surplus a year earlier.  BoK chief Lee Seong-tae indicated
on June 12th, that the central bank will tighten its monetary
policy again to absorb liquidity in the market. "While effectively
coping with economic conditions, we are going to run our monetary
policy in a way to preemptively react to inflationary pressure,"
he said. South Korean consumer prices rose 2.6% in June from
a year earlier, and the annual core inflation rate of 2.2% was
its highest since hitting 2.3% in June 2005. "Should the need be for a more aggressive interest-rate adjustment, there is nothing to stop us from taking that decision. I would not rule out a higher adjustment to rates than 25 basis points, nor a faster pace of rate increases than once per quarter," the ECB's Garangas added. Euro-zone interest rates do not suit the real economy and must rise further, said Bundesbank chief Axel Weber on June 30th. "We have to normalize monetary policy, this no longer fits with the real economy, and normalization is necessary to rein in liquidity dynamics. Markets have understood that the ECB will act when necessary, only under this condition can we anchor inflation expectations."  In his final confession as the ECB chief economist, Otmar Issing admitted on May 28th, that, "very expansive monetary policies led to a strong increase in liquidity globally and in the Euro area. The high liquidity contains an inflationary potential." Issing confessed after the Dow Jones AIG commodity index doubled from its 2001 low, and leaves the ECB far behind the commodity inflation curve. That opens up the possibility of a surprise ECB quarter-point rate hike on July 6th to 3.00%. Private lending in the Euro zone hit a record high of 11.4% YoY in May, raising pressure for higher interest rates. Euro money growth also kept up its healthy pace, with M3 expanding at an 8.9% year-over-year rate, its highest in just over three years and up from 8.7% in April. Super easy money in Europe, in turn, fuels speculation in commodities and contributes to global inflation. The ECB is not stuck in a fixed pattern of interest rate rises and a quick change in policy is always an option, warned Luxembourg's central banker Yves Mersch on June 28th. "Vigilance for the Euro system requires keeping all options open, including a quick change in policy of the Euro system if warranted by new incoming information. There is no pattern of historical monetary policy decisions that would simply be repeated mechanically or extrapolated into the future," he warned.  The tough ECB jawboning helped to put a floor under the Euro at $1.25, before the Fed's zig-zag on June 29th launched the Euro towards $.128. Clearly, the ECB is lingering far behind the monetary inflation curve, and could decide to move faster or more aggressively in lifting its repo rate this summer, while the Bernanke Fed goes on vacation, and watches the US Dollar get zapped. The United Arab Emirates is sticking with plans to convert up to 10% of its $23 billion in foreign currency reserves into Euros. Central bank chief Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi said on July 2nd, the bank could also convert up to 10% of its reserves into gold. "I don't think it's appropriate to buy gold now, it's too expensive. The appropriate time might come very soon. We could go up to 10%," he said. The central bank controls only part of the foreign exchange reserves of the UAE, an oil-exporting federation of seven emirates. Other major holders include the investment arms of the emirates' governments. Suweidi said the US dollar continued to suffer from pressure due to its twin budget and trade deficits, and the Euro was an attractive currency, because the interest rate level in the Euro has gone up. Swiss National Bank Tracking higher ECB Rates The Swiss National Bank will hike interest rates again, if the Swiss economy keeps growing at its above average pace. "If the economic situation continues to develop favorably, further corrections to the level of our benchmark rates will be needed," SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth said on June 20th. "Despite our latest correction, Swiss monetary policy is still not a hurdle for the economy." The SNB raised its official interest rates by 25 basis points on June 15th, aiming for 1.5%, the mid-point of a 1.0% to 2.0%, 3-month Libor target band. Swiss factory orders soared 15.5% in the first quarter, and Switzerland is enjoying one of the strongest first-quarter growth rates in Europe. Swiss economic output rose 0.9% in the first quarter of 2006, in line with a 3.5% annual expansion rate. The Swiss economy rose just 1.9% last year  The Swiss jobless rate dipped to 3.3% in May, from 3.5% in April. Unemployment should settle at 3% by December, said SNB chief Roth. But signs of inflation are picking up amid higher capacity utilization. Swiss producer prices rose 2.4% in May from a year earlier, while import prices were 3.7% higher. Roth estimated the country's potential output growth rate, or the maximum speed at which an economy can grow without stoking inflation, at a mere 1.5 percent. The SNB usually coordinates its monetary policy with the ECB, in order to maintain a stable Euro /Swiss franc exchange rate. Exports make-up about half of Switzerland's economy and two-thirds of its exports are sold to the European Union. Both ECB and SNB lending rates are still hovering near historic lows, providing a cheap source of financing worldwide for hedge fund traders and corporate takeover artists.  The SNB is expected to continue lifting its Libor rate target by 25 basis points at each of its next two meetings, in September and December to 2.00%, and extending into 2007 to match the ECB. That could lift the Swiss franc against the dollar as the US rate rise cycle ends. Unlike other major central banks, the SNB has kept a relatively tight rein on its M3 money supply, expanding at 3.5% annualized rate in May, and could slow towards 1-2% growth as the SNB tightens liquidity further. SNB vice deputy Niklaus Blattner hinted on June 15th, that the sell-off in the Swiss Market Index won't deter further rate hikes. "We've seen a rapid increase in the last three years in equity markets, which, as we pointed out, couldn't be explained easily from fundamental factors. It's plausible that one day there should be a correction, but that does not mean there should be a fundamental explanation," he added. South African rand rebounds from 2-1/2 year low on higher Gold A broad sell-off across emerging
markets, a sharp correction in gold prices, and worries over
South Africa's widening current account deficit, all conspired
to hammer South Africa's rand to a 2-_ year low of 13.30 US-cents
last month. Yields on South Africa's benchmark 10-year bond soared
140 basis points to as high as 8.80%, as the plunging rand generates
inflation pressures in the local economy.  South Africa is the world's largest gold miner, and is more exposed than any other country to slumps in the gold price because its deep level mines are the highest cost producers in the world. However, with gold rebounding 10% above its climactic low near $560 /oz, the rand is bounced back into favor, changing hands at 14 US-cents, but still finding resistance at 7-rand per US$. The rand is one of the most volatile currencies in the world, with average daily trade volume climbing from $3.8 billion in the first quarter of 1998 to $13.8 billion in the third quarter of 2005. The problem is that more than half of the daily trade in the rand takes place offshore and is often driven by foreign portfolio and speculative flows. Japanese investors were large buyers of SA rand bonds last year, and were unwinding the "yen carry" trade as the BOJ tightens liquidity at home. US Dollar is
chronically weak despite Fed rate hikes  While the Fed has restored
the fed funds rate to 5.25%, a five year high, the US dollar
index remains 24% below it levels of 2001. What has unfolded
over the past two years, is the US Treasury forced to offer higher
interest rates to foreigners, to prevent the US dollar from falling
under its own weight.  Because exchange traded commodities
are mostly denominated in US dollars, the Federal Reserve has
a special role to play to defend the US dollar, and prevent global
commodity inflation from spreading into producer prices. Gold
traders have known for a long-time, that the hard dollars and
cents flowing through the commodities markets, are a more reliable
indicator of real time inflation, rather than inflation statistics
fashioned by government apparatchniks.  Maybe the Fed is not too concerned
about a weak US dollar, because the Euro and British pound are
under the supervision of inflationist central banks. For instance,
the Euro M3 money supply is exploding at an 8.9% annualized rate,
while the UK's M4 money supply is 11.8% higher from a year ago.
It's only a matter of time until Japan's ministry of finance
starts to threaten intervention on behalf of the US dollar, and
a half-percent BOJ overnight loan rate would still be abnormally
low. "Commodity
Super Cycle" led by Crude Oil  Higher crude oil prices are
a nightmare for G-10 central bankers, because they trigger secondary
knock-on inflation effects in oil importing nations. World oil
demand should soar 37% from this year's almost 86 million barrels
per day to 118 million bpd by 2030, the US government's top energy
forecasting agency predicted on June 20th. The United States,
China and India together will account for half of the projected
increase in world oil use by 2030.  In a letter to Rep Brad Sherman
on March 21st, Fed chief "zig-zag" Bernanke said "Although
US trade deficits cannot continue to widen forever, these deficits
need not engender a precipitous decline in the dollar, nor should
such a decline, were it to occur, necessarily disrupt financial
markets, production or employment." Since then, two Fed
rate hikes have put the global stock and commodities markets
on a wild roller-coaster ride, but the US dollar remains chronically
weak. To read
our analysis and forecasts, and learn about the basic fundamentals
of how markets work for the CRB index, global interest rates, major
foreign equity markets, and their underlying US-listed ETFs,
foreign exchange rates, gold, copper, crude oil and other markets,
Subscribe to the Global Money Trends magazine.
Please click on the hyperlink below to place an order now. |
