What's Behind the Global Stock
Market Melt-down?
By Gary Dorsch
Editor Global Money Trends magazine
May 23. 2006
Do you believe in conspiracy
theories? Sometimes they are difficult to refute. Such was the
case last week, just after the Euro had soared towards a 12-month
high of $1.30, and the British pound, itself ridden with large
trade and budget deficits, stood mighty tall at $1.90, with traders
setting their sights for $2 for the pound. The US dollar lost
7% in just six weeks against America's main trading partners,
and was 28% lower since January 2002, to stand just 1% above
its 1995 low.
Then on Sunday May 14th, currency
traders in London, picked up an obscure report from the UK's
Observer newspaper, that indicated the International Monetary
Fund was in behind-the-scenes talks with the EU, Japan, the US,
China and other major powers to arrange a series of top-level
meetings to tackle imbalances in the global economy, and address
the dollar sell-off that was rattling global stock markets.
Fearing a surprise rescue package
for the US dollar, London currency traders began to lock in profits
from the Euro's six week old rally to just shy of $1.30. As always,
the first line of defense in the currency market is jawboning,
and finance officials in Europe, Japan, and the US were out in
full force, talking the Euro and Japanese yen down, and the US
dollar up. Timely jawboning by G-7 finance ministers, helped
to keep a lid on the Euro just below $1.30, and rescued the dollar
at 109-yen.
G-7 central bankers understand
that a weaker US dollar can exert upward pressure on the cost
of US imports, which rose 2.1% in April, and account for 17%
of Americans purchases. And a sharply higher Euro and Japanese
yen against the US dollar, also subtracts from profit margins
of European and Japanese exporters, which is unraveling the EuroStoxx-600
and Nikkei-225 stock market rallies. European and Japanese central
bankers have worked very hard to inflate their equity markets
for the past four years to stimulate consumer demand through
the "wealth effect."
G-7 central bankers and finance
officials are also alarmed by gold's spectacular surge against
all major currencies over the past eight months, a clear signal
that global investors have lost confidence in the purchasing
power of fiat (paper) currency. A global flight from G-7 government
bonds and into gold since September 2005, has lifted bond yields
to multi-year highs in Japan and the US, the world's largest
debt markets, and in a long delayed reaction, triggered big shake-outs
in global stock markets in mid-May.
However, a guardian angel came
to the rescue a half-hour before the London a.m. gold fix on
May 15th, by unloading a big chunk of the yellow metal, hitting
all bids $35 per ounce lower to the $680 level. Within hours
of the gold sell-off, dazed gold traders were hearing Japan's
finance minister Tanigaki and the ECB's Noyer threatening intervention
on behalf of the US dollar, and conducting jawboning exercises
about the virtues of currency stability for the global economy.
Then on May 19th, leaving gold
bugs on a sour note heading into the weekend, US Treasury Secretary
John Snow insisted on CNBC television that the Bush administration
still backed a strong dollar. "It's a policy we've made
clear, that Japan signed on to, the statement coming out of the
G-7 finance ministers' meetings, which said open, competitive
markets are the best way to set currency values," Snow said,
adding, "I say our policy is the strong dollar."
Gold tumbled as low as $638 per ounce on May 22nd, on concerns
that the Bernanke Fed would back up the Treasury's rhetoric about
a strong US dollar, by lifting the fed funds rate 0.25% to 5.25%
at its June meeting. "I have full confidence that Chairman
Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are committed to price-stability
and understand that this is their number one priority,"
Snow added.
Foreign Central Banks Switching
out of US Dollars
The United States needs to
draw in more than $3 billion every working day just to break
even from external deficits, and prevent the US dollar from falling
further and keep interest rates from rising too far. The US current
account deficit is the broadest measure of trade, including financial
transfers along with goods and services, and widened $136.9 billion
from 2004 to $804.9 billion in 2005, representing 6.5% of US
gross domestic product, up from 5.7% in 2004.
However, Treasury data showed that central banks only bought
a net $1.6 billion of US stocks and bonds in March, the lowest
since they were $14.4 billion net sellers in March of 2005. Japan,
the largest foreign holder of US government debt, sold a net
$18.2 billion in Treasuries in February, but still holds a total
of $640.1 billion. China bought a net $1.6 billion in US debt
in March and holds $321.4 billion. Middle East oil kingdoms recycled
$16.8 billion petro-dollars through British banks, and UK holdings
rose in March by $16.8 billion and total $251 billion.
Nowadays, the US dollar is heavily dependent upon its role as
the world's reserve currency, used for transactions in internationally
traded commodities such as copper, crude oil, and gold. Therefore,
foreign central banks must stockpile US dollars, which account
for more than two thirds of all central bank reserves worldwide.
This special reserve status means that the US dollar is always
in demand, whatever the underlying strength of the US economy,
or the level of US interest rates.
But the US dollar's counter trend rally from January 2005 to
March 2006, that rode on the back of 16 quarter-point rate hikes
by the Federal Reserve, started to unravel in April, following
news that Sweden's Riksbank has cut its US dollar holdings,
from 37% to 20%, with the Euro's share rising to 50 per cent.
Kuwait, Qatar and United Arab Emirates also said they were buying
Euros. Central banks in China and Japan hold less than 2% of
their combined $1.75 trillion of foreign currency reserves in
gold, and instead, hold depreciating US bonds.
But it was Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who on April
21st, dropped the biggest bombshell on the US$ at the annual
meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, by
openly questioning the dollar's pre-eminence as the world's absolute
reserve currency. The Russian central bank raised the Euro's
weight in the currency basket against which it targets the ruble,
by 5% to 35% on August 1st, 2005, reducing the dollar's share
to 65% from 70 percent.
"The US dollar's recent volatility and the US trade deficit
cause significant changes in the international situation and
that is why we do not understand the US dollar at the moment
as the universal or absolute reserve currency. The international
community can hardly be satisfied with this instability. Whether
it is the US dollar exchange rate or the US trade balance, it
definitely causes concerns with regard to the dollar's status
as a reserve currency," Kudrin declared.
The EU-25 is dependent on Russia
for 25% of its gas and 25% of its oil imports and sales of raw
materials to the EU providing most of Russia's foreign currency
and over 40% of the revenue for the Russian federal budget. It
might only be a matter of time, before Moscow asks for Euros
instead of US dollars for Urals oil. Iran's hardliner Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad said on May 5th, that the Islamic republic still
plans to open an Oil Bourse on the island of Kish within two
months, and his close ally Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is also threatening
a switch to Euros for oil transactions.
If Russia, Iran, and Venezuela decide to switch to Euros for
future oil transactions, it could force the Federal Reserve to
hike the fed funds rate to much higher levels to defend the US
dollar in the foreign exchange markets. That in turn, could crush
the US housing sector and rattle the S&P 500 stock index.
Such a conspiracy theory is a dollar bear's dream, but could
happen if the US crosses the red line of using military force
to shut down the Ayatollah's nuclear weapons program.
In retrospect, the seeds of the latest US dollar crisis were
also planted by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke on March 21st,
when he signaled that the Fed could live with a weaker dollar
to help correct the US current account deficit.
"Although US trade deficits
cannot continue to widen forever, these deficits need not engender
a precipitous decline in the dollar, nor should such a decline,
were it to occur, necessarily disrupt financial markets, production
or employment," Bernanke said in a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman,
a California Democrat. However, two months later, the US dollar
came under heavy speculative attack, sparking fears of higher
inflation, and triggering a 4.5% panic ridden shakeout in the
S&P 500.
Sliding US dollar Rattles
European and Japanese stock markets
Germany, which accounts for
a third of the Euro zone economic output, has relied heavily
on its strong export performance to power growth as high unemployment
and weak consumer spending held back the domestic economy. The
German economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% in the
first quarter of this year, while exports soared 3.2 billion
Euros in February to a record high of 72.9 billion Euros, or
18% higher from a year earlier.
However, the surging Euro fueled concerns that its rise may begin
pricing out European exporters and could stall the Euro area's
gradual economic recovery. "If we were to have a lasting
strong appreciation in the Euro, then of course that would slow
our exports. And exports in Germany remain a very important pillar
of our economic development," said Wolfgang Franz, president
of the ZEW institute.
Similar to the tumultuous experience
of the US benchmark S&P 500 index, the surging Euro contributed
to a more severe 9% shake-out in the German DAX-30 index from
a 5-year high of 6150 to as low as 5600 on May 22nd. Because
the Chinese yuan is pegged to the US dollar, the Euro's surge
is also subtracting from export profits in yuan. Conversely,
a weaker US dollar inflates the profits of S&P 500 companies,
which earn 40% of their revenue from abroad.
Jumping to the rescue of the German DAX-30 stock index on Sunday,
May 21st, German Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Mirow said, "The
whole story is to be seen through the panorama of the US dollar.
We do not want to see abrupt changes of exchange rates. So at
the level of $1.27 to $1.30, we esteem that there are no acute
problems for Germany," he said.
German finance minister Peer Steinbrueck added, "The development
of the Euro can be absorbed easily by Germany. Energy imports
become cheaper. I can live with the current development."
Germany has been the world's top exporter for the last three
years, with much of its foreign sales driven by technology companies
competing in high-end, high quality markets.
France's Finance Minister Thierry Breton said on May 17th that
the French economy could absorb the rise in the Euro's to $1.30
but signaled that further strong gains would not be welcome.
"We constantly discuss these risks on exchange rates, notably
within the G7. It is true that we must be attentive."
Japanese financial warlords
on Red Alert
Millions of words have been
written about Japan's ministry of finance and its heavy handed
interventionist policies in the foreign exchange and Japanese
bond market. The MOF is on 24-hour alert for signs of dollar
weakness or lower bond prices that could undermine the benchmark
Nikkei-225 stock index.
The US dollar's slide from 118-yen on April 10th, to as low as
109-yen on May 17th, was the catalyst for a 10% slide for the
Nikkei-225 from its 5-year highs of 17,600 set in early April
to 15850 on May 22nd. A lower US dollar subtracts from earnings
of Japanese exporters and multinationals with operations in the
US, which is why Japan's financial warlords spend so much time
trying to manipulate the yen's value.
"The foreign exchange market should reflect the economic
fundamentals and the excessive volatility in forex would have
a negative impact on growth in the economy including Japan,"
said Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's foreign currency chief. Japan
holds a whopping $640 billion of US Treasury bonds, so the US
Treasury cannot tell Tokyo to keep its hands off the US dollar,
nor can it call China a currency manipulator, while Beijing holds
$321 billion of US Treasury debt.
Japan's economy grew at faster
than expected 1.9% rate in the first quarter, heading for its
longest postwar expansion, as consumers and companies became
optimistic for the first time in almost 16 years in April, (contrarian
signal?) Wages have risen for six of the past seven months. Unemployment
is at a seven-year low of 4.1 percent. But the Nikkei's 10% setback
since the start of the second quarter puts the future of Japan's
longest economic expansion in doubt.
Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui commented on May 19th, "The
global economy, including the United States and China, continues
to expand firmly. Although signs have not become clear yet, there
is some upward pressure on prices. Central banks are gradually
making an adjustment in their loose monetary policy. It is still
uncertain whether such steps could contain inflationary risks.
There is also uncertainty on whether there will be a soft landing
in the global economy or whether a slowdown will be too much."
The Nikkei-225 fell 1.8% on
May 22nd, to close below the psychological 16,000 level for the
first time in more than two months. In Singapore, Japanese yen
Libor futures for December 2006, rallied 4 basis points to 99.32,
for an implied yield of 0.68%, still discounting a hike in the
BOJ's overnight loan rate to half-percent by year's end. The
BOJ has withdrawn 16 trillion yen ($150 billion) of excess cash
from the local banking system since March 9th, when it announced
the end of its ultra easy policy.
"The process of drawing down current account deposits is
proceeding well," said Fukui on May 19th. "If we go
on at this rate, without disrupting markets and if transactions
among market participants go smoothly, we will be able to finish
the process of absorbing excess funds in the next few weeks.
For now, our target is to guide the overnight call rate at around
zero percent."
"We will reduce (excess cash) to below 10 trillion yen ($90.10
billion) for sure. I would use figures like 6-7 trillion yen
or my previous comment about a level somewhat below 10 trillion
yen, but we do not have a specific target in mind," Fukui
said. Still, a possible Nikkei-225 meltdown could persuade the
BOJ to leave its overnight loan rate at zero percent for a long
time.
"We have no preset idea on the specific timing for exiting
zero interest rates. It is highly possible that the accommodative
financial conditions will be maintained for some time following
a period in which the overnight call rate is at effectively zero
percent. Through and beyond this stage, the bank will adjust
the level of interest rates gradually in light of developments
in economic activity and prices," Fukui said.
No doubt, Japan's financial warlords will keep a close eye on
the Nikkei-225 and the dollar /yen exchange rate, before lifting
rates above zero. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe
said May 19th, that he wanted the BOJ to support the economy
by keeping interest rates at zero. "We want them to work
together with the government to make sure we depart from deflation.
We want them to support the economy sufficiently from the monetary
policy side by keeping rates zero."
Global Stock Markets Hooked
on the Gold Standard
The big-3 central banks and
their finance ministries still have the ability to jawbone foreign
exchange rates, or if necessary, execute outright intervention
to battle with speculators. However, the most shocking development
in the global markets over the past few years was the natural
evolution of a worldwide de-facto gold standard that is just
starting to impose discipline upon abusive central bankers.
In other words, brazen attempts by central bankers to inflate
their equity markets by pumping up their money supply, has been
matched by higher gold prices. For instance, the emergence of
the gold vigilantes in Europe became evident in September 2005,
when the price of gold rose above a four year resistance area
of 350 Euros per ounce, and zoomed to as high as 570 Euros on
May 11th, 2006.
Interestingly enough, the gold
market closely attached itself to the monetized EuroStoxx index,
and then outpaced the EuroStoxx to the upside. In other words,
the impressive EuroStoxx-600 rally was just an optical illusion
in hard money terms, and was more reflective of the ECB's ultra-easy
money policy. If the ECB was forced to lift its repo rate above
the true rate of inflation, both gold and the EuroStoxx index
would begin to unwind some of their speculative froth.
Under the leadership of Jean "Tricky" Trichet and his
cohort, Bundesbank chief Axel Weber, the ECB abandoned one of
the key pillars of the Euro zone monetary policy, keeping the
M3 money supply close to a 4.5% growth rate. Instead, the annual
growth in M3 picked up to 8.6% in March, its highest since July
2003 and the third straight monthly rise in the pace of expansion.
Loans to the private sector, which further pushes up liquidity,
grew 10.8% in the year, the fastest growth since 1992. Mortgage
growth topped 12.1%, the highest since 1999.
To prevent strong loan demand from lifting the cost of money,
the ECB inflated the M3 money supply, and in the process, also
inflated the EuroStoxx-600 market and watched the price of gold
soar 74% from 316 Euros to as high as 570 Euros /oz. Although
both asset markets rose in tandem to profit from monetary inflation,
the EuroStoxx-600 index lost 26% to the price of gold since September
2005.
But loose money policies in expanding economies can usually lead
to higher inflation, and Germany's producer price index jumped
0.7% in April, or 6.1% higher from a year ago, its fastest rate
of inflation in 24-years.
It is not difficult to figure
out why German producer prices are soaring, one just needs to
follow exchange traded commodities in the DJ AIG Commodity index.
The ECB's primary mission was to inflate the Euro zone stock
markets, but a lot of extra cheap money was finding its way into
commodities such as crude oil and copper. The ECB waited for
more than two years to reverse its half-point repo rate cut in
June 2005, always leaning on the side of easy money.
The ECB is aware of the inflation situation, but did not lift
a finger to counter the explosive growth in M3 at their monthly
meeting in April and May 2006. ECB chief economist Otmar Issing
said on March 20th, that inflationary risks are to the upside.
Issing indicated that too much cash is circulating in the economy.
"In the last quarter M3 money supply growth has moderated
but we can't forget what's already happened. A large liquidity
build-up has developed and we can't ignore it," he said.
However, the ECB's strategy
blew-up when benchmark 10-year German bund yields began to take
their cue from rising gold prices, reflecting higher inflation
in Europe. Since the last ECB repo rate hike to 2.50% on March
3rd, German bund yields jumped 50 basis points to as high as
4.07 percent, and deflated the monetary bubble in the EuroStoxx-600
index. In the end, the ECB's strategy of inflating equity markets
with cheap money might just lead to the Stagflation trap.
Alarmed by the collapse of the Euro relative to gold, Bundesbank
chief Weber left open the possibility of a half-point repo rate
hike in June. "All options are always open. We are in an
environment where we have a very strong liquidity dynamic. It
has increased despite the two rate moves, and we have more liquidity
than is needed to finance non-inflationary growth. We have to
brake the liquidity dynamic and that will play a role in our
decisions," he said on May 7th.
However, after witnessing a
550-point mini meltdown in the German DAX-30 index over the past
nine trading days, the ECB brain-trust would probably settle
on a baby-step quarter-point rate hike to 2.75%, then move to
the sidelines for three more months. The German DAX-30 was hovering
at five-year highs thanks to forecast-beating corporate profits
and an unprecedented rise in takeover activity. But the latest
fall of 500-points was its worst week since July 2002.
At the end of the day, it was the failure of the ECB to rein
in the explosive M3 money supply growth in a timely fashion,
which ultimately led to the Euro's 65% collapse against gold,
which then sent German bund yields 60 basis points higher to
above 4.0%, which in turn, led to the brutal adjustment in the
EuroStoxx-600 index.
When left to their own devices, free of central bank intervention,
global markets tend to exaggerate moves and increase volatility
in bonds, stocks, currencies and commodities. However, markets
do have internal self-correcting mechanisms that can eventually
reverse over extended movements or deflate asset bubbles. All
too often however, central bankers try to postpone the eventual
day of reckoning, through intervention, interest rate adjustments
and jawboning exercises, but in the end, there is no place to
run or hide. The markets will prevail!
Japanese financial warlords
cornered by de-facto gold standard
Under the regimen of the de-facto
gold standard, all clandestine attempts by the interrventionsi
Japanese ministry of finance to pump up the Nikkei-225 index
or to weaken the yen, could be met with sharply higher gold prices.
Since the BOJ adopted its ultra easy money policy in March 2001
and pegged its overnight loan rate at zero percent, gold climbed
160% to as high as 80,660-yen on May 11th.
If Tokyo's financial warlords intend to be serious players in
combating the "Commodity Super Cycle" with a tighter
monetary policy, it must also accept a stronger yen against the
US dollar, and a lower Nikkei-225 stock index. Since the BOJ
began to withdraw 16 trillion yen ($146 billion) of excess cash
from the banking system on May 13th, the US dollar has declined
from 118-yen to as low as 109-yen last week, while the Nikkei-225
has surrendered 10% over the past six weeks.
By dismantling of quantitative
easing, Japanese bond yields are starting to track the direction
of gold and the "Commodity Super Cycle." The recent
surge in gold to 80,600 yen on May 11th, pushed JGB yields towards
the 2% barrier. And in a natural chain reaction, the surge in
JGB yields to 2% triggered a 10% loss for the Nikkei-225, which
in turn, knocked gold 10% off its highs to 71,800 yen on May
22nd. A slide in gold prices to 71,800-yen knocked JGB 10-year
yields toward 1.83 percent.
Still, Japan's financial warlords are not comfortable with allowing
market forces to control interest rates. Vice Finance Minister
Koichi Hosokawa said on May 22nd, the Bank of Japan should keep
interest rates at zero to support the economy. "We would
like the BOJ to support the economy by keeping interest rates
at zero so that the economy overcomes deflation completely and
does not fall back into deflation again."
The BOJ also buys 1.2 trillion
yen ($10.24 billion) in Japanese government bonds outright per
month, and that is having a big impact on keeping long-term interest
rates down. Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said it was too early
to debate when interest rates should be raised. Any cut in the
BOJ's outright JGB buying could help push up long-term interest
rates, and would be very bad news for the Nikkei-225.
Federal Reserve must choose
between the US Dollar and Home prices
The Federal Reserve will do
what it takes to maintain its credibility, which is central to
preserving the integrity of the US dollar, said Dallas Federal
Reserve chief Richard Fisher on April 11th. Alluding to the Fed's
dual role of insuring inflation doesn't "raise its ugly
head" while still promoting the fastest possible growth,
Fisher said, "We seek to get it right. And the answer to
your question is we will do what gets it right."
Fisher said the US dollar is "a faith-based currency, the
currency of the world and we must maintain its integrity. I will
spend every ounce of energy doing that. I have no doubt that
my colleagues will do exactly the same," said Fisher, who
is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee. But since
Fischer made his pledge to back a strong US dollar, the greenback
plunged by as much as 7% against a basket of key currencies,
heightening concern among America's biggest financiers.
About half of the $805 billion US current-account deficit last
year was financed by foreign central banks, with those of oil-exporting
nations playing a major role. OPEC plus non-OPEC oil exporters
deposited a combined $82 billion US dollars into BIS reporting
banks in the third quarter of 2005, the largest-ever quarterly
placement.
OPEC holdings of Treasury notes and bonds stood at $84.9 billion
in February 2006, up from $52.7 billion in July, and an even
bigger chunk of petrodollars are recycled through London via
British banks. British holdings of US Treasury notes and bonds
have soared more than $100 billion since June 2005 to $251 billion.
To protect the US dollar's status as a world reserve currency
for oil exporters, the Bernanke Fed is under pressure to lift
the fed funds rate by a quarter-point to 5.25% in June. Failure
to do so, could spark a renewed assault against the US dollar,
and re-ignite inflation fears, lifting gold prices and US bond
yields. However, a tighter Fed money policy could also deflate
the US housing bubble, the greatest source of savings for many
US households, and risk an economic slowdown or recession.
Fed chief Bernanke told Congress
that his March 24th decision to stop reporting the M3 money supply
measure was designed to save the US taxpayer's money. However,
the yield on the US Treasury's 10-year note has surged 40 basis
points higher, since the Fed abandoned M3 reporting. Without
the transparency of M3 reporting to monitor the Fed's money printing
operations, traders sold US bonds and turned to gold in April,
as a safe haven from the US central bank.
Asked if the rising price of gold, increasing bond yields, a
falling US dollar meant that the Fed chief Bernanke had a credibility
problem, US President Bush told CNBC television on May 5th, "No.
This guy's sound, he's smart, he's capable. You might remember,
when I first nominated him, he was well received by most accounts
as being a sound thinker who will be independent from the politics
of Washington."
But deep seated doubts about
Bernanke's future handling of the M3 money supply convinced the
gold vigilantes to bid the yellow metal $260 higher to as high
as $730 /oz, which in turn, persuaded the US bond vigilantes
to jack-up 10-year Treasury yields by 80 basis points towards
4.19 percent, the highest in four years. Uncertainty over the
status of the US housing bubble under the duress of 5% plus Treasury
yields, in the background of a plunging US dollar, led to a violent
nine-day shakeout in the S&P 500 index in mid-May.
Can Central bankers derail
the "Commodity Super Cycle" and gold?
It would probably take a sustained
global stock market sell-off of 10% or more to knock the "Commodity
Super Cycle" and gold off their four year upward trajectory.
Evidence of a slowdown in the booming Chinese and Indian economies,
caught in the downdraft of a global economic slowdown, and signs
that G-7 central banks are tightening their money supplies in
a meaningful way, are also pre-requisites for calling an interim
top in commodity indexes.
The catalyst for a sustained global stock market decline might
be weaker US housing market. "In combination with rising
interest rates, affordability is becoming much more difficult
and therefore as you would expect some cooling in (housing) markets,"
said Fed chief Bernanke on May 18th. Up to 40% of US home loans
were of non-traditional types such as adjustable rate and no-money-down
mortgages in 2005, Bernanke noted. "Some people will soon
be faced with adjustable rate loans re-pricing under less favorable
conditions," added Chicago Fed chief Michael Moskow.
The end of excessive monetary
stimulation by the big-3 central banks, the Fed, the ECB and
the BOJ, and fears that mounting inflationary pressures worldwide
may require more aggressive rate tightening has unsettled global
financial markets in recent weeks. Morgan Stanley's All-World
stock market index has fallen about 8% fallen from its early
May peak. Buoyant commodities also have gone into retreat.
The global stock market melt-down has whipped up fears of a global
economic slowdown and weaker demand for the stars of the "Commodity
Super Cycle." Crude fell below horizontal support at $69
per barrel and extended losses to $67,40 /bl. gold lost $70 per
ounce to $645 /oz from a week ago. The Dow Jones AIG Index of
19-commodities fell 7% over the five days, the most since December
1980.
Commodity related stocks were also hard hit. Alcoa fell 8% over
the five days to $31.98 /share, Phelps Dodge, the world's largest
publicly traded copper miner, lost 13% to $83.06; Australia's
Rio Tinto fell 11% to $US 212.02/ share, and Newmont Mining (NEM),
the second largest gold miner, lost 9% to $51.07.
International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato said on May 22nd,
that the latest market adjustments, demonstrate the risks from
inflation and global imbalances, referring to the huge US current
account deficit and China's virtually fixed exchange rate. "Some
have suggested global imbalances are not a serious threat. Last
week, shows that is not the case. The markets are very aware
of global risks. One of them is inflation, and another is how
to resolve global imbalances in a measured manner."
Undoubtedly, bargain hunters
could emerge from the sidelines to pick up battered blue chip
stocks after a brutal correction. If correct, bargain hunting
rallies in global stock market indexes could also be accompanied
by gold rallies and a battalion of other commodities markets.
That in turn, would exert upward pressure on inflation and global
bond yields. It is going to be a lot tougher to make money in
the global stock markets in the months ahead, under the regimen
of a de-facto gold standard.
Has gold seen its highs
at $730 per ounce?
Gold is a proven itself to
be a more viable hedge against monetary inflation than blue chip
stocks, and has greatly outperformed global stock market indexes
for the past four years. However, gold and other commodities
are not immune from big melt-downs in global stock markets. One
needs to go back to 2002 and the first quarter of 2003 to recall
similar stock market declines.
Within the context of a four-year
bull market, gold exhibited wide swings and big corrections along
the way. For many years, European central bankers dumped their
gold to break the psychological link between gold prices and
bond yields. On September 21st, 2003, the Dutch central bank
indicated that it had sold 1,000 tons of gold and had 700 tons
remaining for sale. "We have sold more than 50% of our gold
reserves, which is a signal of how we see gold," said Dutch
Central Bank Governor Nout Wellink. The Dutch raised 10 billion
Euros from the gold sales.
Are the big-3 central banks ready to tighten their money supply
to combat inflation? Can the bank of Japan lift its overnight
loan rate above the ridiculously low level of zero percent, over
the objections of the ruling LDP party? Is Jean "Tricky"
Trichet about to lift the ECB's repo rate by three-quarter points
to 3.25% as futures markets predict? Is Fed chief Ben Bernanke
prepared to deflate the US housing bubble with rate hikes beyond
the neutral rate of 5.00%?
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Gary Dorsch
SirChartsAlot
email: editor@sirchartsalot.com website: www.sirchartsalot.com
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Mr Dorsch worked on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for nine years as the chief Financial Futures Analyst for three clearing firms, Oppenheimer Rouse Futures Inc, GH Miller and Company, and a commodity fund at the LNS Financial Group. As a transactional broker for Charles Schwab's Global Investment Services department, Mr Dorsch handled thousands of customer trades in 45 stock exchanges around the world, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, the Euro zone, London, Toronto, South Africa, Mexico, and New Zealand, and Canadian oil trusts, ADRs and Exchange Traded Funds.
He wrote a weekly newsletter from 2000 thru September 2005 called,"Foreign Currency Trends" for Charles Schwab's Global Investment department, featuring inter-market technical analysis, to understand the dynamic inter relationships between the foreign exchange, global bond and stock markets, and key industrial commodities.
Copyright © 2005-2015 SirChartsAlot, Inc. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: SirChartsAlot.com's analysis and insights are based upon data gathered by it from various sources believed to be reliable, complete and accurate. However, no guarantee is made by SirChartsAlot.com as to the reliability, completeness and accuracy of the data so analyzed. SirChartsAlot.com is in the business of gathering information, analyzing it and disseminating the analysis for informational and educational purposes only. SirChartsAlot.com attempts to analyze trends, not make recommendations. All statements and expressions are the opinion of SirChartsAlot.com and are not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Our opinions are subject to change without notice. SirChartsAlot.com strongly advises readers to conduct thorough research relevant to decisions and verify facts from various independent sources.
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