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Get Your Kicks On Route 66

Morris Hubbartt
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Sep 14, 2012                                                             

US Dollar Blown Shoulder Chart

• I said a week ago: “If the dollar doesn’t bounce, the move lower could become violent, and a panic into the metals could occur.”

• The dollar has declined violently, and the metals are rocketing higher. My technical work points to a much lower dollar, in the coming months.

• In the shorter term, the likely outcome will be another 2-3 weeks of “price digestion”, followed by a resumption of the powerful down trend.

• The dollar began forming a head & shoulders top pattern in June, but it was too weak to form much of a right shoulder. Instead, an ominous series of bearish triangles appeared, and the dollar entered a vicious downtrend.

• I have been looking for a fundamental event to usher in a major new bear leg in the dollar, and the announcement of QE3 yesterday is just what the doctor ordered.

• My short term target of 78.50 has almost been acquired. Avoid the dollar.

Gold Big Targets Chart

• The daily chart is now a little bit overbought, but it can stay that way, for months. The gold sector has probably put in a major bottom, so very light profit taking is all that is required right now.

• The monthly and weekly chart indicators are beginning to move up from deeply oversold conditions. It is not a good time to be a top caller.

• The full stokes (Stochastics) indicator is moving out of the oversold area. I consider this to be a major buy signal.

• In the big picture, my analysis suggests that the price targets of $1850 in 2012, $2300 in 2013, and $4500 in 2015, will all be acquired.

Gold Summer Breakout Chart

• This weekly chart suggests that gold will consolidate for a few weeks, and then rise to my $1850 target price, by November or earlier.

• The MACD rise seems to be just getting started, and it could run higher for many months.

• Note the Ultimate oscillator, at the top of the chart. It indicates that this move higher is nearly completed. I’m projecting that gold will now tread water for 2-3 weeks, and then quickly rise to $1850.

GDX Route 66 Chart

• My technical analysis suggests that gold stocks, like bullion, seem nearly ready to enter a quiet period, just as traders begin to get excited. I expect a few weeks of price consolidation now.  

• My $52 target was acquired yesterday, and there is “technical room” for a further push towards $54-$56.

• My January 2013 target is $66, and possibly higher. This number is based around my $1850 target for gold. If gold moves higher than $1850, look for GDX to rise to $72, in the same timeframe.  

• If you are heavily invested in gold stocks, you may be starting to get your kicks, on route 66!

GDX 60 Minute Channel Chart

• GDX should begin to trade surprisingly quietly, for the next few weeks.

• The rise to my $52 target price yesterday created an overbought condition on some short term indicators. Note the spike on the CCI indicator that I highlighted with a red circle.

• While GDX is now a little overbought, yesterday’s price action also took it above the price channel, and that can cause momentum-based hedge funds to buy aggressively.

• It’s possible that GDX could run right to $54-$56 before any meaningful correction occurs. Gold stock accumulators should be ready to buy in the $47.50 area.

GDXJ Tag & Bag Chart

• In the shorter term I continue to look for a move higher in the next few sessions. That should carry GDXJ to $25-$27. Once this target area is “tagged and bagged”, I expect several weeks of corrective action.

• Please note the RSI indicator at the top of the chart. It is difficult to see, but a tiny non-confirmation has just occurred. GDXJ could easily rise 10-15% higher, before this technical event has any bearing on the price action.

Silver Fib Action Chart

• On this weekly chart you will notice that silver is trading at about $34. This is a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, from the previous bull move.

• Although this price may prove to be somewhat of a challenge, the set-up of the key MACD indicator suggests this resistance should soon be cleared aside. Rather than a “big correction”, I’m predicting modest consolidation, for a few weeks.

• From there, I expect a powerful move, to about $45. The painful period of accumulation seems to be over, and a rise above $34 should usher in a period of great happiness, for silver investors!

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