Gold Charts R Us Profits are still the name of every game Harry Schultz Archives posted January 12, 2004 Welcome to GCRU #95 on Jan 7, 2004. Every day has been Christmas for gold advocates these last few days! We have to thank the US Dollar for doing gold & us this favour. It fell ever deeper. Oh ye of little faith-in the US$---that's us. Bullion broke out of its upwedge, on the upside, thus removing a chart worry. Bullion continues to lead gold shares. None of the pure gold share indices rose to a new high on Monday (5th) when bullion rose $8.70. But they were close. Tuesday morning brought sharply higher bullion (+$8) in Far East & Europe but NY surprised everyone by opening unchanged (even as $ didn't gyrate but remained locked down)! Gold shares also unchanged at Tues open. Even so, gold & shares seems in tune with each other, now. Our Spinner indicator is turning positive in most stks. One more dip followed by strength in timing lines will pull most confirming lines over zero & corroborate the likelihood of a sustainable leg up, possibly of several weeks. Any worries? Well, the monthly bullion chart is more overbought than it has been in 12yrs or more & the 1996 peak was 420, so 420 is a chart resistance level. The glass ceiling has inched up $8. As I said last wk, every stk or index tends to overshoot its resistance levels & then pulls back. We can hope this time is different. But let's not nail our portfolio to it. Profits are still the name of every game. But to capitalize on such upsurges (for which we are grateful), the prudent trader can move his stops up daily (even intra-day), rather than just grabbing any/every profit available. Or some of each. When a profit is big enough, it's foolish not to take it, IMO. But for positions of only modest profit, try tightening the screws on your stops while this surge lasts. Obviously no surge lasts forever (this one looked/looks a worry at/from mid-Tues) & U wont forgive yourself if U fail to either take the big profits or move stops up tight on the rest, to preserve the gains. Is it too late to buy? No, but every chart is a different option. Eg, in the big Monday jump, there were 10 stks of those I monitor that had chart breakouts (BVN, BGO, GLG, GRZ, HMY, IMG, MDG, NEM, RNG, TAN) & 3 that failed to do well despite the surge (GG, GSC, NSU). Some golds closed near their low of the day even tho up on day. Those concern me. My Monday favourites were BVN & NEM & I bought more of each on Tues at the open. But of course, I'll stoploss them since buying into surges is a bit risky. Yet a stop removes most of the risk. I also liked RNG (RioNarcea) & bought more of that on Monday. I didn't marry any of them. I'm only engaged, for the duration of the price romance - be it 6mos or 2 days. My hunch is I'll be stopped out (at a profit) in about a week. But whatever; let the good times roll. We hope. There is one other worry, other than the one mentioned up top, ie, why did gold rise $8.00 Tues AM in Europe & Asia only to lose all that in NY, while silver was up $6 & plat rose. Only gold fell among the bullish metals & comods. Why? Obviously a massive selling operation took place & is still in effect. By who? Presumably by the same cartel that had been holding gold down for years, supported by the US Treasury, who admit to selling "if necessary" (Goldspin said so before Congress). What better place for them to decide to stop or slow the rise than at the 1996 prior high zone-920ish (with gold at technically overbought levels). I would guess they plan to fight at this level for as long as they can, hoping many recent gold buyers will get discouraged & sell, helping their cause. This supports the GCRU philosophy of taking profits when they are available, for tomorrow, who knows? Gold's bull mkt is strong enough to roll over the cartel, but they can make it costly now&then for investors who still believe in fairy tales, like buy&hold. Most people can't add 2 & 2. DJIA rose 25% in 2003. But the US$ fell aprox 25% in 03. So those investors really earned 00%. If U invest in any US$ denominated items, stocks, bonds, gold or oil, U must earn MORE than the $ falls to show a true profit. Nasdaq average rose 50%, so minus the 25% $-fall, these investors made a real gain of 25%. Canadian gold stocks are C-$ denominated, & the C$ has been rising for some time. Investors in Cda golds or Oz golds thus have an edge over US-based golds. Thanks for your letters. Here's a grand one: "Dear Uncle Harry, Happy new year to the Greatest Guru anywhere around! U may wonder how your disciples did in 2003. Yours truly is happy to reveal: My Trading Book shows: 43 round trips, with 33 wins (76.7%) & 10 losses (23.3%). US$89,904 gross profit. Less $36,101 commissions/expenses to my bankers & their NY/Canadian brokers. Net profit: $53,803. (for the above I converted C$ to US$) "U, Uncle Harry, have factually "GIVEN'' me US$53,803, for which I am thankful beyond your recognition. Without your guidance the US$54K (in my pocket) would've been an illusion. Now that $54K are facts, showing up on bank statements. These figures may appear as bread crumbs to most GCRU members, but this little mouse is proud of the above & deeply grateful. I do NOT use lightly the expression 'U have GIVEN me'. Now, I must find a prof, honest broker who doesn't cream off my profits to the above extent. That's my next chore. My very best, Jean Richard Varmer." Gold Corp is under performing, so I'm moving it to the back of GCRU til it recovers. Replacing it with Inmet, the most spectacular performer of them all. Via con trend. Wishing U a gold-glowing '04, your alchemist gold guru Uncle Harry. PS: Well, dear reader, Christmas came to a close yesterday, Tuesday, in the gold mkt. It didn't crash but it shut down the spurt. 2 of the 3 gold indexes & 11 of the golds I monitor had 1-day reversals. That means a price slow down, shorterm. This morning, Wed, the euro is falling in Europe, the US$ rising, & bullion is off a bit. It's back to profit-grabbing time. Or via stops: very very tight. PPS: "buying on strength" means the mkt climate and, at minimum, buying only if price of your stock is up on the day & preferably the gold price also. Lots LOTS more follows for subscribers! Email this page to a friend ### Who is Harry Schultz? Chevalier Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS, is the highest paid investment consultant in the world at US$2,400/hour-US$3,400/hour on weekends (International Edition Guinness Book of Records 1981-2002). To keep in touch with developments around the globe, Harry draws from correspondents in many countries, plus mountains of international newspapers, magazines, and other data. At the top command posts of Harry's elite team are Chief Market Analyst, Paul Griffiths, and Research Editor/geopolitical analyst Gordon Frisch. Loyal HSL and GCRU subscribers in 90 nations are much more than simply names and addresses; Harry and his team consider them part of their cherished global family. Mr. Schultz is regularly quoted in books, articles, and interviews and by other newsletters (the "alternative press"). Arthur Hailey, a longtime personal friend and HSL subscriber, based his character Lewis Dorsey in the bestseller The Moneychangers, directly on Harry Schultz. Harry has lived for extended periods in 18 nations, and shorter periods in many others. Knighted five times, Harry is a man for all seasons and a true citizen of the world. 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