Gold Charts R Us
Profits are still the name
of every game
Harry Schultz
Archives
posted January 12, 2004
Welcome to GCRU #95 on Jan 7, 2004.
Every day has been Christmas for gold advocates these last few
days!
We have to thank the US Dollar for doing gold & us this favour.
It fell ever deeper. Oh ye of little faith-in the US$---that's
us.
Bullion broke out of its upwedge,
on the upside, thus removing a chart worry. Bullion continues
to lead gold shares. None of the pure gold share indices rose
to a new high on Monday (5th) when bullion rose $8.70. But they
were close. Tuesday morning brought sharply higher bullion
(+$8) in Far East & Europe but NY surprised everyone by opening
unchanged (even as $ didn't gyrate but remained locked down)!
Gold shares also unchanged at Tues open. Even so, gold
& shares seems in tune with each other, now.
Our Spinner indicator
is turning positive in most stks. One more dip followed by strength
in timing lines will pull most confirming lines over zero &
corroborate the likelihood of a sustainable leg up, possibly
of several weeks.
Any worries? Well, the monthly
bullion chart is more overbought than it has been in 12yrs or
more & the 1996 peak was 420, so 420 is a chart resistance
level. The glass ceiling has inched up $8. As I said last wk,
every stk or index tends to overshoot its resistance levels &
then pulls back. We can hope this time is different. But let's
not nail our portfolio to it. Profits are still the name of every
game. But to capitalize on such upsurges (for which we
are grateful), the prudent trader can move his stops up daily
(even intra-day), rather than just grabbing any/every profit
available. Or some of each. When a profit is big enough, it's
foolish not to take it, IMO. But for positions of only modest
profit, try tightening the screws on your stops while this surge
lasts. Obviously no surge lasts forever (this one looked/looks
a worry at/from mid-Tues) & U wont forgive yourself if U
fail to either take the big profits or move stops up tight on
the rest, to preserve the gains.
Is it too late to buy? No,
but every chart is a different option. Eg, in the big Monday
jump, there were 10 stks of those I monitor that had chart breakouts
(BVN, BGO, GLG, GRZ, HMY, IMG, MDG, NEM, RNG, TAN) & 3 that
failed to do well despite the surge (GG, GSC, NSU). Some golds
closed near their low of the day even tho up on day. Those
concern me.
My Monday favourites were BVN
& NEM & I bought more of each on Tues at the open. But
of course, I'll stoploss them since buying into surges is a bit
risky. Yet a stop removes most of the risk. I also liked RNG
(RioNarcea) & bought more of that on Monday. I didn't marry
any of them. I'm only engaged, for the duration of the price
romance - be it 6mos or 2 days. My hunch is I'll be stopped out
(at a profit) in about a week. But whatever; let the good times
roll. We hope.
There is one other worry, other
than the one mentioned up top, ie, why did gold rise $8.00 Tues
AM in Europe & Asia only to lose all that in NY, while silver
was up $6 & plat rose. Only gold fell among the bullish
metals & comods. Why? Obviously a massive selling
operation took place & is still in effect. By who? Presumably
by the same cartel that had been holding gold down for years,
supported by the US Treasury, who admit to selling "if necessary"
(Goldspin said so before Congress). What better place for them
to decide to stop or slow the rise than at the 1996 prior high
zone-920ish (with gold at technically overbought levels). I would
guess they plan to fight at this level for as long as they can,
hoping many recent gold buyers will get discouraged & sell,
helping their cause. This supports the GCRU philosophy
of taking profits when they are available, for tomorrow,
who knows? Gold's bull mkt is strong enough to roll over the
cartel, but they can make it costly now&then for investors
who still believe in fairy tales, like buy&hold.
Most people can't add 2 &
2. DJIA rose 25% in 2003. But the US$ fell aprox 25% in 03. So
those investors really earned 00%. If U invest in any
US$ denominated items, stocks, bonds, gold or oil, U must earn
MORE than the $ falls to show a true profit. Nasdaq average
rose 50%, so minus the 25% $-fall, these investors made a real
gain of 25%. Canadian gold stocks are C-$ denominated, &
the C$ has been rising for some time. Investors in Cda golds
or Oz golds thus have an edge over US-based golds.
Thanks for your letters. Here's
a grand one: "Dear
Uncle Harry, Happy new year to the Greatest Guru anywhere around!
U may wonder how your disciples did in 2003. Yours truly is happy
to reveal: My Trading Book shows: 43 round trips, with 33 wins
(76.7%) & 10 losses (23.3%). US$89,904 gross profit. Less
$36,101 commissions/expenses to my bankers & their
NY/Canadian brokers. Net profit: $53,803. (for the above I converted
C$ to US$)
"U, Uncle
Harry, have factually "GIVEN'' me US$53,803, for
which I am thankful beyond your recognition. Without your guidance
the US$54K (in my pocket) would've been an illusion. Now that
$54K are facts, showing up on bank statements. These figures
may appear as bread crumbs to most GCRU members, but this
little mouse is proud of the above & deeply grateful. I do
NOT use lightly the expression 'U have GIVEN me'. Now, I must
find a prof, honest broker who doesn't cream off my profits to
the above extent. That's my next chore. My very best, Jean Richard
Varmer."
Gold Corp is under performing,
so I'm moving it to the back of GCRU til it recovers.
Replacing it with Inmet, the most spectacular performer of them
all. Via con trend.
Wishing U a gold-glowing '04,
your alchemist gold guru Uncle
Harry.
PS: Well, dear reader, Christmas came
to a close yesterday, Tuesday, in the gold mkt. It didn't crash
but it shut down the spurt. 2 of the 3 gold indexes & 11
of the golds I monitor had 1-day reversals. That means a price
slow down, shorterm. This morning, Wed, the euro is falling in
Europe, the US$ rising, & bullion is off a bit. It's back
to profit-grabbing time. Or via stops: very very tight.
PPS: "buying on strength" means
the mkt climate and, at minimum, buying only if price of your
stock is up on the day & preferably the gold price also.
Lots LOTS more follows for
subscribers!
Email this page to a friend
###
Who is Harry Schultz?
Chevalier
Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS, is the highest paid investment consultant
in the world at US$2,400/hour-US$3,400/hour on weekends (International
Edition Guinness Book of Records 1981-2002).
To keep in
touch with developments around the globe, Harry draws from correspondents
in many countries, plus mountains of international newspapers,
magazines, and other data. At the top command posts of Harry's
elite team are Chief Market Analyst, Paul Griffiths, and Research
Editor/geopolitical analyst Gordon Frisch. Loyal HSL and GCRU
subscribers in 90 nations are much more than simply names and
addresses; Harry and his team consider them part of their cherished
global family.
Mr. Schultz
is regularly quoted in books, articles, and interviews and by
other newsletters (the "alternative press"). Arthur
Hailey, a longtime personal friend and HSL subscriber, based
his character Lewis Dorsey in the bestseller The Moneychangers,
directly on Harry Schultz.
Harry has lived
for extended periods in 18 nations, and shorter periods in many
others. Knighted five times, Harry is a man for all seasons and
a true citizen of the world.
Contact: E-mail:
HSLmentor@racsa.co.cr
Fax: Costa Rica (506) 272-6261
Fax: Switzerland (41) 21 652 0525
Mail: POBox 622, CH-1001-Lausanne, Switzerland
2-week
trial $45 -- yes, sign
me up!
______________
321gold Inc
|