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. ...Gold
Charts R Us from Harry Schultz, posted Jan 10, 2003
Welcome to GCRU #45 on Jan 8, 2003. Another exciting gold week. NY gold broke up from an 8-day symmetrical triangle, made a new high, & has now pulled back to correct it (& presumably confirm the pattern). But below 345 the S/T will abort & we'll inch a bit lower, eg, 335. I advised last Wed to take partial profits, which proved useful advice. We're now back into the re-load your pistols stage-at present correcting prices or/& at new highs. I get mixed emotions in gold mkts these days. When it goes up I'm happy for my long positions. But when it falls, I'm happy as it may fall enough to hit my buy orders well under the mkt --- which would be bargains. If U adopt the same order-strategy,
U too can always be happy! Naturally, U've noticed bullion has been leading gold shares. Some thought shares always lead; some thought bullion always leads. Neither is correct. They take turns, as I've mentioned off&off over last 39yrs. I have positions in both so I don't mind. If U have only shares, cheer up; charts say shares will soon catch up. But also note that U have another option for buying the actual bullion. Not only taking delivery from Comex but also U can buy a smaller size bar (1 kilo) from Chicago (CBOT). See "The Midas Touch" by Jim Sinclair for details, on most web sites [click]. Or ask your gold broker. A loyal but impatient reader, MG, asks why derivatives didn't kick in & slaughter the hedgers as we said it will at price levels recently touched? Answer: 1st, it takes time for bank wheels to grind. If U miss a car payment they don't take the car away the next day. 2nd, we've only just reached the critical derivative level. It has to HOLD here for some time to impact the miner's banks. Bullion banks probably assume gold will slip back below critical levels, & allow some leeway. And they're trying to make that happen! 3rd, How do we know that it is not occurring? Hedged mines can shut down their risk control programs & just slowly go broke. How do U know what's happening inside a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs by the name of J. Aron & company in London? They don't hold a press conference to tell U they're nailed to the wall. Isn't a $400mil loss (& growing) for NEM enough of an example? But they changed their accounting rules so U can't see it! Didn't U recently see Ashanti (biggest hedger) on NYSE "biggest loser" list recently, down 8% on the day? It's starting to happen! Rome didn't fall in a day. But it fell. The dominos are starting. PS: just heard Oz mine Sons of Gwalia is imploding due its hedge position. PPS: the rising gold price may be partly the result of hedgers covering in panic. It's happy days in the unhedged gold world & for U & I. Gold bless U. Your personal alchemist, Uncle Harry [ Editor's
note: FYI gold stocks covered are: Schultz Gold Index, February
Gold, Agnico Eagle, Goldcorp, Glamis Gold, Meridian Gold, Gold
Fields, Repadre Cap Corp, Eldorado, Royal Gold, Viceroy Resources,
Tocqueville Gold Fund, Northern Gold, Tan Range, Harmony and
Novagold. A bargain at $300 for 3 months, go on, treat
yourself!
]
Price in 4-day closing break
below Dec uptrend. In-house Spinner indicator finally confirming
bearish downside cross(es) in MACD plot lines. Despite a slightly
higher high in price since last week, momentum indicators gave
excellent lead signals for profit taking on 1/3 trading
positions. Note that momentum lines have already worked off a substantial portion of overbought conditions despite limited downside in price, & have plenty of scope to base out in positive territory for a new rally leg. Premature to speculate on length/depth of corrective action in gold shares, but widespread support coming from June-Dec consolidation formations likely to limit downside in price, irrespective of time cycle. ... NOTES: H = unchanged. Betwn = between. Ystdy = yesterday. H&S = head & shoulders. RS = relative strength. 1dc = 1-day close. 2dc = 2-day close. Australian mkts are 1 day ahead of US time. GCRU - Gold Charts R Us (18 gold charts each Wed, with buy/sell guidelines) - from Harry Schultz - sent weekly by Email - $US100/mo for 3, 6, 9, or 12-month subscription periods (fax +$120 per 3-months) - you can subscribe here. ### Who is Harry Schultz? Chevalier Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS, is the highest paid investment consultant in the world at US$2,400/hour-US$3,400/hour on weekends (International Edition Guinness Book of Records 1981-2002). To keep in touch with developments around the globe, Harry draws from correspondents in many countries, plus mountains of international newspapers, magazines, and other data. At the top command posts of Harry's elite HSL team are Chief Market Analyst, Paul Griffiths, and Research Editor/geopolitical analyst Gordon Frisch. Loyal HSL subscribers in 90 nations are much more than simply names and addresses; Harry and his team consider them part of their cherished global family. Mr. Schultz is regularly quoted in books, articles, and interviews and by other newsletters (the "alternative press"). Arthur Hailey, a longtime personal friend and HSL subscriber, based his character Lewis Dorsey in the bestseller The Moneychangers, directly on Harry Schultz. Harry has lived for extended periods in 18 nations, and shorter periods in many others. Knighted five times, Harry is a man for all seasons and a true citizen of the world. Contact: E-mail:
HSLmentor@racsa.co.cr ________________ |
