ref: 15328.

Editor's note: One of Harry Schultz' right-hand men, Paul, sent me an HSL Harry Schultz Life Strategies newsletter. It was the most comprehensive, informative and fascinatingly-wise newsletter I've ever read, and it had me rivetted.

So I asked if we could post an HSL at 321gold, and Uncle Harry kindly sent us a goodly chunk of the Dec 9th 2002 issue. I want to point out that this is not the complete HSL. The Full Monty also has: International stock recommendations with buy/sell stops; The HSL Investment Box; the HSL Model Portfolio; a World Markets Analysis section; HSL Market Predictions (HSLP); a superb section on Futures Trading; 'In a nutshell' asset allocation advice, and finally, Top (stock) Picks of the Month.

You can get Harry Schultz' advice for as little as US$246 for an 8-mos trial-peek subscription. Or normal 1 year price of US$332. Or a lifetime sub for just US$2,447. HSL is available via e-mail, fax, or mail. You can subscribe online via credit card. OR subscribe via fax or mail. HSL is published "as needed," approx. monthly, with online updates, as necessary. Harry considers all of his subscribers as family, hence you are treated to all aspects of 'family care,' from healthy living and listening to what you have to say, to asset preservation and sensible money management. HSL is an ADMH (absolutely, definitely, must have!).

 

Harry Schultz Life Strategies
~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 80 nations)

Harry Schultz
Sample of HSL #629 Dec 9, 2002
posted March 3, 2003
.

Big Picture U like it short & concise? Here it is. Deflation is a sell. Inflation is a buy. Stocks are a buy (but there's a bull trap at end of short path). Bonds are a sell. Gold bullion is a buy, at low support levels. Silver is an avoid. US$ is a sell. Euro is a hold. Ethics are a sell. Earnings are a sell. Is that short enough? We can shut down here & just tell jokes for the next 11 pages, or I can connect the dots. Actually, the backup is pretty gripping drama. Griping for some.

Deflation? Yes, we've got a lot of it these days, courtesy of the Great Mall of China. World's biggest mall, where everyone shops because nobody can beat their prices! Even the Great Wall of China can't hold back the tidal wave of deflation coming at the West. This is not like the monetary deflation of 1929-33. This is business deflation & monetary inflation. In 1929-33, bank failures & ineptitude caused a major monetary deflation in terms of money supply & liquidity. Not so now. The US fathead Fed is terrified of deflation (rightly so). Therefore, in the most outrageous & blatant fiat money promoter statement in modern times (unequalled since the days of John Law in France), a Fed governor (speaking for the elitist string-pullers), Ben Bernanke, told the world "The US govt has a printing press that allows it to produce as many US$'s as it wishes at essentially no cost."

He explains the Fed could inject vast sums into the economy to combat deflation even if interest rates drop to zero (read that as zero is coming). Greenspin, the turncoat ex anti-fiat advocate, said "There is virtually no meaningful limit to what we could inject were that necessary." He gave the game away saying "Our conclusion is that we are not close to a deflationary cliff." Which means we are at cliff edge! And that's why deflation is now a sell & inflation a buy. The US printers of unbacked paper money have said they plan to keep their printing presses rolling full speed. That will push the $ value down & gold value up, deflation down & inflation up. In transition between the two stages we'll have slumpflation.

Meantime, the bear mkt rally powers ahead, which I indicated here last time was technically logical. Note how quickly fear reversed back to greed. The herd loves to be burned twice. They won't be disappointed. Nasdaq traditionally leads the rest of the mkt up & down. So watch it for early warning signs. Stay on board, but with stops, as this is against the main trend. With stops, the risk is minimal. ···What about earnings? Don't ask. A graph of S&P forecast earnings growth shows a steady upswing from Nov 01 to a peak at Jan 02, & a steady downturn ever since, losing half its Nov-Jan gain. But those are facts. What appears in the press/TV are spins, as bad as in the dot.con days.

Typical: GM reported pro forma (ie, make-believe) profit of $1.24/share. On a net basis, GM lost $804m or -$1.42/share. GM has a pension shortfall of -$20-30B (depending on assumptions). GM's last 5yrs earnings total about $20B. Ergo, subtract the pension shortfall & 5yrs earnings are zero. Citigroup derived $843m of its earnings from sale of its HQ. Net was $3.92B vs $3.18B, so HQ sale was critical. Citi beat silly estimates by a penny & stock soared 13% on the day. JNJ beat estimates, but on a reduced share count. UIS earnings up 300% with sales down 3%.

Bill Murphy says: "Earnings transparency doesn't exist. Wall St doesn't want earnings clarity. It wants rally, no matter the duplicity." CEO's won't change the system as they're part of it. Leopards/spots. "AXP beat estimates by a dubious 1 cent. How? By reserving 5.8% less for uncollectable loans. Stock rose 3.4%. Some credit card issuers take the hits, others finagle. As Uncle Miltie said 'U can fool some of the people all the time, but that's good enough' [for stock mkt fiddlers]." Ethics have not materially improved in Wall St & it wasn't just a few people who were conning the public. Earnings are still spun & "arranged." Fiddling is entrenched in CEO corporate USA.

"The Federal Reserve Act lets us print all we'll need. And it won't frighten the people. It won't look like stage money. It'll be money that looks like real money." -US Treasurer Woodin, March 7, 1933 Source; FRB, Boston

Investors need to pay attention to the effect of pension accounting in evaluating corporate financial performance. Reported earnings per share in S&P 500 were $26.74, but under the core earnings treatment, the yield falls to $18.38. The finance industry has not yet caught up with this change. Many brokers insist earnings are $44.93 a share. This gives an optimistic P/E ratio of 17:1. Others calculate on the core earnings basis, the P/E ratio is not 17:1 but 48:1. Half of S&P500 company pension funds are under-funded. If stock options were the hot topic in 2002, look for under-funded pension funds to take over the headlines in 2003. Corporate profits are about to step into a sandy pit.

Many have been correctly hiding out in bonds for years. But now they don't yield much, & worse, their charts say: lower prices are the wave of bonds' future. I've warned of this for some time & now the charts bear me out. The bond mkt is a sell. ··· If Xmas sales are flat or down, the illusion that govt can do anything to fix an economy will be blasted. Fed cuts to boost biz are already an unfunny joke. This could coincide with the end of the mkt's secondary reaction, popularly called a "bear mkt rally." ···My favourite biz indicator for the last 45 yrs has been the US Help Wanted advertising index. It's fallen to a multi-yr low at 40. Throughout the mid to late 1990's the index moved between 80 & 90, peaked at 93. The outlook is grim, as firms are still reducing costs in the face of an uncertain economic outlook. Outlook is for no improvement for the next 2 qtrs.

My forecast of 6.0% US unemployment came to pass & may be too low. 6.3-6.5% by mid 2003 is not unlikely. Euro outlook is similar, esp France & Germany. When I first forecast 6% two yrs ago, it was regarded as radical. Now it's conservative. ···Which reminds me, talk of double dip recession is feeble. The recession never ended. Depends how U measure, of course. Those economists who didn't forecast the initial recession leg use "double dip" as a cover for their ineptitude. HSL was alone in declaring the 1st dip leg (based on in-house indicator) 2-3 mos before govt admitted it.

I wrote this before O'Neill/Lindsey resignations: "Rumours continue that Lawrence Lindsey may be booted off the White House team. If so, it would be because he has principles, standards & a brain. He resigned from the Fed in 1996 & said US was in a bubble & Fed was wrong to prime the stock mkt. Rumours continue re Paul O'Neill exiting & I compliment G.Bush for standing by him. O'Neill is a biz man who has had a hard time accommodating to the endemic inefficiency of politics where 2-3 political parties pull in opposite directions, all claiming they want to help the nation, when in fact most want to help themselves stay in office." It's sad that honesty & frankness wins demotion in DC, whereas lying/conning, a la ex-T-man Rubin, wins praise. O'Neill hated DC's "showbiz politics" as he called it. We'll miss these men.

The very wise James Puplava (Financialsense.com) says "The day of conclusion is drawing near. When it erupts it will shake the foundations of the financial system. It can't be programmed in any model, as no model will be able to foresee it. Models give us probabilities, not dates. This event, whatever it turns out to be, will be magnified in a world that's become ever more leveraged & synchronized. Today millions of eyeballs & computers are focused on the same things. Events are telegraphed instantaneously around the globe. Trillions of $'s can be mobilized in microseconds in an instinctive reaction without thought or reason.

"Money mobilizes faster on fear than on greed. Greed may be lost opportunity whereas fear is motivated by survival. The stage is set & all in place for another crash. The fact we're told it can't occur should give an alert person reason to pause. The regularity in which financial crises keep reappearing with increasing frequency is proof enough in itself. Today's investment professional hides behind the safety of his models & belief in black boxes. To them all risk lies under the bell shape of the curve. The tail end is excluded or has been marginalized by a firm belief in the sanctity of hedges. They are asleep & unaware of the risks that surround them." Amen!

I began warning 15 yrs ago that globalized stock mkts would lead to ever bigger crises, & soon, simultaneous crashes. No firewalls exist. When GM (or some such) listed itself on stk exchanges outside the US I said this will lead to global collapses with no time to think calmly between time zones, which formerly protected us. Computers & email now prevent rational thought due to the need for instant action on unexpected news. The situation is out-of-control, dovetailing with out-of-control debt, derivatives, leverage & unbacked fiat money. He who has debt & not gold will be a loser. Gold may not be the entire answer, but it's part of it. Diversify!

"Paper money has had the effect to ruin commerce, oppress the honest & open the door to every species of fraud & injustice." -George Washington


Your Voices "Uncle Harry: For the record! HSL mistakenly stated that Sweden awarded the Peace Prize to Jimmy Carter. All Nobel prizes winners are selected by the Swedes & the awards are made in Stockholm except the Peace Prize. That selection honour goes to Norway & the award is made in Oslo on Dec 10. Other than that the rest of 'Plainspeak' is totally correct. U are right; the Swede's Saab does build a very high tech fighter aircraft; it is called the "Gripen" or JAS-39. Regards, Alden B. Billitti." Thanks. My ex P/A, Sherry Holterman, also pointed out my error. Sorry. Skal!

"Uncle Harry, I have to take issue with U concerning Sweden & the Nobel prize. The fact they gave the same prize to Arafat a few years ago provides proof the Peace prize has lost any significance. One can disagree with Bush's 'shoot first' mentality, but that doesn't change the view the Peace prize is now a political joke. Best regards, Bob McCartney." Bob: I'm aware & agree in part. But if u reread my words, I said Sweden (read Norway) is "often" a morality super power, not always (check this). I use words with great care, & this was a surgical strike. I've often sharply criticized the Peace prize. But sometimes they get it right. Me too.

The letter of the month is from 89-year-old retired CEO Michael H. Levy who still works a 60-hour week. ML writes: "I subscribe to 24 magazines & 26 newsletters plus several services to aid me in my retirement activities. I enclose my renewal check & wish to compliment U on the sole newsletter equal in overall quality to The Economist which I consider the world's best publication of its type. ('Yours is the best newsletter' ML told me when I phoned him for permission to quote this letter). I founded & built 2 national institutions. I started in biz at 21 in 1931 in deep depression days. I teach, lecture, advise, consult, & manage a half-billion $ for others in no load funds. No client has ever lost a penny. I'm an Austrian School of Economics economist, BMA in finance & Ph.D in economics. The US Secretary of Education awarded me 8 Certificates of Merit as has the NJ Superintendent of Education (7 awards). I consulted for several major US financial institutions, which so disgusted me re their lack of integrity in top executive echelons I opted out of them. My bestest to U. MHL" Thank U! What a wonder U are. I'm sure your rigorous lifestyle extends your life span & influence.

"HS: Your comments in such great variety are really appreciated. A special area for me has been your remarks on 'Bubbles'. Thanks for your continuing efforts! Dr. G.R. Buckwalter" ··"Dear HS: In a recent HSL U said people shouldn't shorten their names, eg, William to Bill. U said: 'fortunately you can't shorten Harry'. Wrong! Don't U recall your Shakespeare & British regal history? Prince Harry is 'Hal.' Best wishes, dmc." Touché. ···"Many thanks for your intelligent, independent, thought-provoking Letters. Best regards, Glen Gulliver." Letters like yours make it worthwhile.

"Dear Guru, Thanks so much for HSL. I struggle with 2 pages & U put out the Gutenberg Bible of Investment & Life. I'm reflecting on your energy, creativity & youthful spirit. After all that I just took a nap. Respectfully, Jim Sinclair." Coming from someone who fields 300 emails a day, those are kind words. ··S.. King, of Oz, writes, "I've just started reading your new Bear Mkts book, a fantastic read. How did U get to be so wise? Enclosed is my renewal for 4 years. Yours in awe." It's all in the genes, SK. ···H.H.Kleinsteuber writes: "Ck for 2 yr renewal herewith. The spin meisters on CNBC are officially 'entertainers.' Check the union they belong to!" That explains it!


Be in it to win it? Gold's most ferocious defender is friend Bill Murphy of Gold Anti-Trust Action Comm, whose website is famous for its attacks on the gold price-fixing cartel. Bill's motto is "U got to be in it to win it"-meaning U must be fully invested in gold all the time. Yes, Bill is right! But up to your chin? And all the time? And never take a profit? I don't think Bill means that. I think he means U mustn't wait til some magic number appears before U buy. U must maintain a sizeable core position that stays put in case of sudden big price upswings.

But to buy a gold share at 10, ride it to 17 & back to 12 is not good money management. U should have a trading position as well, so U sell at 17 & buy back at 12. Whether your core position is 50% of your gold portfolio or 75% or 25% is your choice. But U need both. The trades let U take profits on runups, which effectively lowers the cost of your core position. Over time, it can reduce the core cost to zero! U can't achieve that if U only buy&hold & pray. B&H doesn't work well with the S&P or anything else. Taking profits is what investing is about. And how can U buy bargains on corrections if U didn't lighten up on upswings? Don't let emotions kill U. Westerners tend to hold or buy more on price rises. In the east & Mideast, they sell on rises, buy on falls. Who is smarter? Your buying power is needed on corrections! It won't be there, if U didn't take some profits on rises. Bill is right! U've got to be in it to win it. But not up to your chin -- & not all the time.

··Bill printed this article on his website (lemetropolecafe.com) & commented he was the old-fashioned type who wants to just stay in the trenches with all guns loaded. U pay your money & U take your chance. (My weekly email GCRU Gold Charts R Us is devoted to helping U sell at 17 & buy back at 12. ).


Gold leads way to world peace! Is that a shocking statement? Yes, but it has considerable validity. Read this statement on the proposed gold Dinar by Malaysia's prime minister: "Of course the Gold Dinar can be a trading currency, for all countries, not necessarily only Muslim countries. But Muslim countries are in the best position to demonstrate the viability of the system. They are in a position to manage their economies rationally & in the process show the world they are capable of growing with stability & in peace. And this will do more towards countering oppressions by their enemies than the futile violent retaliations."


Bear Mkt in govt is over. This is part III of AIG global strategist Bernard Connolly's presentation to the LBMA Conference in San Francisco. In it, Connolly explains the effects of the collapse of the world's 3 major currencies on gold. Connolly also describes a new world order, characterised by what he calls "a govt bull market" & its positive impact on the bullion market. He forecasts inflation.

Gold: Silver Lining to Dark Economic Clouds Part III
Bernard Connolly AIG Trading Group

(Ed. note: I'm going to begin by repeating the last paragraph of Part II to refresh your memory on where we left off)

"But if the US neither wishes to nor is capable of enforcing a global empire as a way of producing world political union, & if Europe is willing to do so but is incapable of doing so, which of the two other elements of the inconsistent triad will be abandoned? Europe has never abandoned a preference for fixed exchange rates & has no intention of doing so: leaving the exchange rate to be determined by the private sector has always been anathema to many European, particularly French, minds. There is undoubtedly a current of opinion even within the US that would like to see a return to fixed rates, preferably via a system of pegs to the $ or even widespread dollarization.

"The outcome is far from clear. But it does seem likely we'll go through a "mixed" period, a kind of '3rd Way' if U like, in which there are more & more attempts to restrict the ability of the private sector to move exchange rates around & that this restriction takes the form not only of govt-imposed pegs, target ranges & the like (& a yen collapse under the strain of Japan's unsustainable public finances could well provide an excuse for such G-3 target ranges this year) but also from capital controls, whether explicit or, more likely, implicit.

"Measures against money laundering, however necessary & justified in current circumstances, will, one must fear, be used for all sorts of purposes other than fighting terrorism, including that of imposing implicit exchange controls. The Market Abuse Directive currently going through the EU legislative mill, which allows authorities almost unlimited discretion in deciding, ex post, what constitutes a criminal offence of abuse, will be a weapon of ex ante intimidation in their hands. The ominous & sinister article 59 of the EU treaty permits the imposition of capital controls between the EU & the rest of the world. Like every other article of the treaty it is there for a purpose -- it's intended to be used. It can be activated by a qualified majority vote of the member states - a financial nuclear weapon aimed at London above all. All in all, there are just too many straws in the wind to be ignored.

"This, too, is an aspect of the bull market in govt, which has now begun. It is by no means the only one. Fiscal policy is back in vogue everywhere. Budget deficits will rise &, soon after, so will taxes. Govt subsidies to firms are back in a big way, everywhere. In Europe, just in one 3-week period in the autumn of 2001 one saw: the effective nationalization, socialization, corporatization, or whatever, of Swissair; the effective re-nationalization by the Swedish govt of forestry interests of the firm, Assidomän; & expropriation by the British govt of Railtrack. It's possible telecommunications companies in Europe, only recently de-nationalized, will face some form of re-nationalization in the next few years. The airline sector will be "rationalized", "restructured" or "consolidated" not by market forces but by Brussels fiat. In Japan, further bailouts of the banking system so extensive as to amount to de facto nationalization appear close to inevitable. Former Communists are now in power in Poland, & former Communists have made stunning gains in local elections in Berlin." (To be continued. Remember, think of this as a vital book U read a few pgs at a time & reread all monthly for perspective, a bigger picture).


1984 Pentagon super database will track citizens. Outrage grows. It will track every purchase U make with a credit card, every magazine subscription, & medical prescription U fill, every web site U visit & e-mail U send or receive, every academic grade U receive, every bank deposit U make, every trip U book & every event U attend. ···As far as I know, those 2 Bills before US Congress to restrict US citizens from acquiring 2nd passports did not pass. And a new Congress takes over now. They may be reintroduced. All of which gives time to acquire said travel document before any new law passes. ···If U didn't download our geopolitical article "Are we Headed for a Global Police State?" please do, on our Free Mkt Update of Nov 25. Congressman Ron Paul says: "Most police states, surprisingly, come about through the democratic process with majority support."

To fit today's wars into a 1984 perspective, download a gutsy article by Jacob Levich. Look for "Bush's Orwellian Address": http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0922-07.htm. Published 9/22/01. Here is an extract: "In Orwell's classic 1984 novel, the state of Oceania is perpetually at war with either Eurasia or Eastasia. Though the enemy changes periodically, the war is permanent; its true purpose is to control dissent & sustain dictatorship by nurturing popular fear (at home) & hatred (of multiple enemies out there). The permanent war undergirds every aspect of Big Brother's authoritarian program, excusing censorship, propaganda, secret police, an end to privacy & most rights. In other words, it's terribly convenient. And the office of Homeland Security today is conveniently terrible." Libertarians & classic conservatives regard it with horror.


Harry Potter II I must insist these books/ films are destructive. I had a lovely letter from a warm-hearted Hslm who says he read the books & they are just good fun. Hah. How can an adult read anything through the eyes & mind of a child? He can't. My R&D indicates that while a majority of kids may not be affected negatively, a minority will. How? Having their interest in witchcraft turned on by HP, they secretly go to other sources for more info & get hooked on the promises of power, rather than being responsible for their actions. Paganism is sweeping the US & perhaps the world. In the US it is documented. Witches are demanding equal rights in certain US cities. Is it just a coincidence that Halloween, a time for witches, has zoomed in public interest? I noticed this year more kids were wearing witch costumes than ghosts or pumpkins. In the US it's becoming ever more an adult holiday with more alcohol-related accidents than New Years Eve! Proves paganism was, & still is, a valueless hedonistic "religion."

US National Retail Federation forecast Americans would spend over $1.5 billion on party costumes this year. An extra $2 billion would be spent on candy & $2.7 mil would go to Halloween greeting cards & stationery. Guess who loses? Value-based holidays. "Christmas, Easter & Hanukkah seem to have lost some of their appeal for many consumers & they have instead opted for something with a little more pagan flavour. Other holidays have become less important. Halloween is the exception. It has become more important," Howard Davidowitz, president of retail consulting firm Davidowitz Associates, told CNN.

I urge parents & grandparents to throw out HP books & videos & ban them, boycott the films, while U can, if U can. Teach kids how to preserve civilization through positive value-laden images, not those based on the alleged power & self-indulgence of witchcraft. The bait: many kids have an almost obsessive desire/wish to control their parents, friends, enemies, family, teachers. Witchcraft (falsely) promises control (along with sex & money-which appeals to adults). Tough competition for the church & society. Good luck.


Wars My ex next-door neighbour in London, Mick Jagger's ex wife Bianca, said on UK SkyNews that "Everyone in govt wants to limit our civil liberties but with no cut off date." Politician replied: "Yes, but this is war & in the last few wars we always limited civil liberties." Ah, but said Bianca, "U all say this is an ongoing, unlimited, never-ending war. So, I presume U won't ever be ending these liberty restrictions either?" HSL says: every one of these limitations in every country is of questionable benefit; they clearly punish & restrict the innocent, & are unlikely to ever catch any guiltys. But if U must pass these (largely useless) laws, put a sunset clause in each (ie, an expiry date). U don't know the date? So put in an annual expiry, to be renewed each year if still deemed necessary by a Congress or a parliament. Otherwise, they will, like most laws & taxes, remain on the books forever. Those who believe in & understand individual freedom will agree IMO. Those opposed to individual freedom & want only ever-greater govt control, will oppose this. (I suggest U pass this message along, if U wish to do yourself a favour. Or do nothing & reap the consequences).

Re Iraq: Do the Iraqi people themselves want to be bombed into democracy? ···Columnist David Ignatius (WP): "CIA fears Bush team cooking the intelligence books, implying connections between AlQaeda & Saddam that are unproved." And unlikely, IMO. DI: "The effects of Iraq, like Vietnam, could last a generation, amidst widespread, if largely silent, dissent." ···Columnist Nicholas Kristof (NYT): "Fashion changes in perceptions of rogue states. Iraq is a govt Dick Cheney's corp helped shore up a few yrs ago. In 1980's US provided Saddam with satellite intelligence so it could use chemical weapons against Iran. US shipped 7 strains of anthrax to Iraq in 78 to 88. What changed? Not Iraq, rather US sensibilities after 9/11. Iran was the fashion monster in the 80's.

"In 1994 the fashion changed to NoKorea & a war was barely avoided. Containment & deterrence have worked there as they have with Iraq for 11yrs. Libya was also seen as a monster once. The Iraq threat for which Americans are now prepared to risk thousands of casualties, was just a few yrs ago just another tinhorn dictatorship where CEO Cheney was earning his bonus." ···Congressman Ron Paul sees a military draft, for men/women, returning in the US soon. The thought of a family member being drafted may cool the ardor of many armchair warriors who think a war is a solution. IMO, an Iraq war will trigger a disaster, win, lose or draw. ···Columnist Wm Pfaff (IHT) agrees, says: "US govt policy implies terrorism & Iraq weapons are linked & an Iraq war will somehow lift US fear (risk). This is not true.

"Threat to US comes from Islamic radicalism that will be intensified by war with Iraq. 'Solving' Iraq is overwhelmingly likely to worsen the terror threat to us." ···Newsweek: "Bush prefers monologue to debate." ··Congressman David Bonior said: "Going to war is more of a threat to the US (safety) than is Saddam now." ··The 3 Bush wars (Afghan, Terror, Iraq) have & are endangering the US & Americans who live or travel abroad, & are fomenting anti-Americanism everywhere. ···"Containment & deterrence are a better way to deal with Saddam, one that enjoys global support & is a superior path to security. Only an irrational quest for absolute security prevents the administration from seeing that vital point & is a misperception for which the US seems destined to pay a terrible price."-Prof David Hendrickson, Colorado College. ··A new regime in Iraq would, in theory, still know where weapons are hidden & keep them hidden. Also, Saddam may go underground. ··The good news to end this Iraq section is the weakness in oil & defence stock charts. It indicates big money doesn't believe a war is likely, as far as they can see.

When George Bernard Shaw, who loved to tweak tails, said: "A 100% American is 99% simplistic" he meant, in his sarcastic way, that Americans don't understand the outside world. GBS said that in 1930. Americans have matured a bit since then, but not enough to be in charge of the world. And no one should be in any case. US foreign policy is the major contributing cause of the terror problem.

Afghanistan revisited: Yes, the Taliban army has been defeated, but it was a shallow victory. That army was not a terrorist army, even if its political leaders allowed outside terrorists to train there. And any terrorists amongst the population melted into the crowd & left town&country. Key terrorists were Bush's goal, but U don't kill them from B52's. U kill them, if U can, by house to cave searches. The bombing was a mixture of plus & minus, at best 30-70. It created new enemies & killed lots of innocent civilians. It ended a militant regime that is now missed by many locals because they gave law&order where now cities are under the rule of thug-gangs again. Opium growing is back bigger than ever. US has failed to give promised $'s to the new puppet govt to provide infrastructure, law&order policing & landmine removal. Call it 10 steps forward 9 back.


Health U surely already know this but maybe your kids or grandchildren or neighbours don't. That drinking soda pops, diet pops fizzy drinks isn't very bright. And that Aspartame, artificial sweeteners, Nutri Sweet, Equal, Spoonfull, etc, are high risk. Also watch for aspartame on food labels. ··It's hard to imagine some people believe Diet Coke & Diet Pepsi are really diet products . Ex Senator Howard Metzenbaum presented a Bill some time ago that would have warned the public of dangers of aspartame & instituted independent studies on problems such as seizures, changes in brain chemistry, & changes in neurological & behavioral symptoms. Ugh! The bill was killed by drug & chemical lobbies. ··When the temperature of sweetener Aspartame exceeds 86 degrees F, the wood alcohol in it converts to Formaldehyde & then to formic acid, which in turn causes metabolic acidosis. (Formic acid is the poison found in the sting of fire ants). Not too appealing eh? Stick to water.


You can play Santa Claus year-round & be appreciated while helping fellow humanoids. Surely we all agree it's noble to help less fortunate souls. It's also in our self-interest to make society safer. And, if you're conservative, to help those who fight socialist doctrines. Let's be grateful there are people willing to organize these socio / political / humanitarian causes. Let's put some cash where our heart / mouth / gratitude is. HSL runs a global recommended list now&then of organizations doing good work without big overheads. As it's the season of goodwill, it's a grand time to send cheques. New ones added:

  • Valley Cathedral Orphanage, Philippines. A worthy cause. No mgr fees! Don McAlvany endorsed. Make cks payable to Potters Field Ministry, 20611 N. 56th Drive, Glendale, AZ 85308, USA.
  • Leadership Institute. Trains conservative youth. M. Blackwell. 1101 N.Highland St, Arlington VA 22201. Fax: 703.247.2001.
  • Conservative Caucus Foundation. Does exposés on govt pa- tronage, security & New World Order (tax deduct). H. Phillips. 450 Maple Ave E, Vienna, VA 22180, USA. Fax: 703.281.4108.
  • Freedom Asso. (Norris McWhirter). Fights euro & EU. Pro-£. POBox 2820, Bridgnorth WV16 6YR Tel/fax 01746.861.267. ·The Democracy Movement, to save the £ & UK sovereignty. 2 Beaufort Mews, London SW6 1PF, tel: 0990.110440, www.democracy-movement.org.uk
  • Animal Rehabilitation Center, POBox 629, Midlothian, Texas 76065. US. Rescues animals & care for & find homes.
  • Prostate cancer research. Leading edge; seeking cure. Non profit. CaP Cure, 1250 4th St, Ste 360, SantaMonica, CA, USA
  • Fights alone for health freedom at political level. National Health Federation POBox 688, Monrovia, CA 91017, US. Fax 626-303.0642. Tel 626-357.2181. www.thenhf.com. Non profit
  • National Citizens Coalition. 100 Adelaide St West, Toronto, M5H 1S3, Canada. Motto: "More freedom through less govt."
  • Heritage Foundation. Best sound policy idea-factory in USA. Ed Feulner. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC 20002.
  • International Society for Individual Liberty. Benica CA 94510-160. Tel:707.746.8796 Fax: 707.746.8797. www.ISIL.org
  • Linden Bridge School for autistic (a brain disorder) children. A waiting list of kids needs contributions to help. Grafton Rd, Worcester Park, Surrey KT4 7JW, UK, Tel (44)181.330.3009.
  • Lalmba: clinics in Africa (Sudan, Kenya, Eritrea) + a Mexico orphanage. Helped Rwandan refugees in Zaire. 32 years of service to the poor. 7685 Quartz St, Arvada CO 80007, USA.
  • Glenhaven Youth Ranch, takes teenagers out of dead-ends to re-enter society. HC-68, Box 709, Plainview,Arkansas 72857.
  • Friends of the Americas (helps poor children in Latin America via clinics, food, Xmas boxes), Di & Woody Jenkins, 912 N.Foster Dr, Baton Rouge LA 70806, USA. Fax: 504-923-2822.
  • Bosnia Refugee Children, SCAMT, 5665 Rt de Valbonne 06410 Biot, France. Sends trucks into Bosnia to feed, clothe Bosnian children. Registered charity. Does remarkable work.
  • Solidarities. French organization helping needy/abandoned children in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Lebanon & Romania. 19 rue Daviel, 75013 Paris. Fax: (33) 1.45.89.74.78.
  • Citizens for an Alternative Tax System. Steven Hayes. 1015 Oneonta Dr, Los Angeles CA 90065, USA. Tel: 213.255.8878.
  • Future of Freedom Foundation. Inspired. 11350 RandomHillsRd Fairfax.VA 22030 USA. Tel: 703.934.6101 Fax: 703.803.1480.
  • Advocates for Self-Govt, 3955 Pleasantdale Rd, 106A, Atlanta GA 30340, USA. Tel: 404.417.1304 Fax: 404.417.1305.
  • Freedom Alliance. Ex-Senator Steve Symms, libertarian. 45472 Holiday Dr, Sterling, VA 20166, USA. Fax: 703.709.6615.
  • Amnesty International, 1 Easton Street, London WC1X 8DJ UK, Tel: (44) 171.413.5500. Aims to free political prisoners.

···It really is more blessed (& fun) to give than to receive!!


PT This is almost funny. Unless U are Canadian! US govt issues periodic travel alerts against various countries, meaning they are dangerous for US citizens to visit, eg, N.Korea, Iraq. Now the Canadian govt has issued a travel alert against the US for all Canadian citizens of Middle Eastern origin. Says it's unsafe for anyone who looks Arab or Pakistani to travel to US as they are unnecessarily harassed & risk being detained. I read the tragic case of a Syrian who become Canadian yrs ago, is a respected & well traveled businessman, who was just transiting through a US airport, but was harassed, jailed, refused counsel, & then deported to Syria by the Gestapo US Immigration Service.

As with everything to do with the Bush war on terrorism, justice loses as rules are carried to stupid extremes, like strip searching Senator McGovern & 80-yr old ladies. It's easy to blame low level employees for such sanctioned misdemeanors, but the true blame is the excessive power given them by Congress & govt bureaus. If US govt doesn't back off, retract some powers, tourist travel to the US will disappear. Already, thousands avoid US travel due to ridiculous & excessive security measures, wherein innocence doesn't help U.

Good news! The 3-year-long campaign to increase info-sharing on savings accounts in Europe has collapsed. Good old Luxembourg & Austria effectively vetoed a compromise deal. Switzerland refused to give ground unless all others did, & they didn't. I've repeatedly said, for 3yrs: don't be spooked by reports of Swiss giving up bank privacy. Europe's largely socialist press put a scare spin on these negotiations for 3 long years. Now my advisory is vindicated. Fortunately, Euro Union tax measures must be passed unanimously by EU's 15 members. Note: Tax evasion is not a crime in Switz, only tax fraud. During negotiations, the Swiss offered to tax bank acnts & share funds with EU, if all others did (they wouldn't), but would not reveal account-holder identity. Proves my point. Ironically, even the US has resisted requests for info from EU, since 9/11. Income taxation should be a crime, not the avoidance of same.

Save Your Skin Dept: Make a donation to Amnesty Int'l, conditional of them sending U an A.I. lapel pin. You can either wear it, especially when you travel, or carry it in your coat pocket for quick access. In case of kidnapping, war, riots, false arrest, etc, the pin might help you. It may cause your adversary to think twice about U. A.I. is part of the solution in many problem situations. A.I. deserves support in any case.


Book of the Year! Last HSL reported my new book Bear Market Investing Strategies (John Wiley & Sons) was named Book of the Week by Addison Wiggin at Daily Reckoning. U may recall he also declared Uncle Harry was immortal, something I'm happy to "live up to." But now a larger award. The book has been named "The Book of the Year" by Professor Vernon Coleman, of European Medical Association. He declared: "I suspect that by 2010 it will be clear that it is the book of the decade." I must go in a corner & blush. (The book is available in all major book stores in US, Cda, & UK or via Amazon dot.com or Amazon.co.UK or Wileyeurope.com).


Schultz Gold Index has received rave reviews. "At last an index that is free of silvers, coppers, & hedgers," said one. Since last HSL, we've fine-tuned SGI further, adding 3 & dropping 2 to get a reflection of the finest mines with best management for full exposure to gold, alone. SGI is not far off its former high, whereas XAU & HUI gold indexes are far below their highs due to the selection of their index shares. This proves what I've long preached, that just buying any gold won't do! The differences are amazing. Last week some rose 8% a day 2 days running, while others rose only 1%. Below is SGI to date, alongside Feb gold futures. SGI appears each Wednesday in GoldChartsRUs.

 

Putin the Putrid Russia had its Peter the Great, Ivan the Terrible, Stalin the Horrible & Gorbachev the Garbageman. Now we have Putin the Putrid, a modern day Ivan. Amazing Russian history. One bad apple after another. No Jefferson, Adams, Franklin, Disraeli, just killers in suits. Putin is pure hardcore KGB, trained in deceit, & a scumbag to the heart. In last HSL I labeled him a combination of Rasputin, Machiavelli & Ivan. The day after that HSL, Putin proved all I had said. The Chechen freedom fighters, desperate to get the Russians out of their country, held 800 Muscovites hostage in Moscow's Opera house. Putin had a glorious opportunity to exhibit humanity. He could/should have met the hostage demands & removed some Russian troops from Chechnya to show good faith in negotiations, but mainly to free the hostages.

Instead, Putin ordered troops to charge, gassed 120 hostages to death & blew his chance to show magnanimity & concern for locals. Putin lies, as all Russian leaders always have (& admit it as one of their tools), calls Chechens terrorists, & tries, falsely, to link them to AlQaeda. Chechens are not terrorists. Putin is the terrorist who has slaughtered tens of thousands of Chechens who want separation from Russia, just as Americans did from England; & as dozens of other separatists did from colonial rule, most of whom won, eg, India & all of Africa. World leaders were too gutless to condemn P the P. Washington Post put it well: "Chechnya has a clear political solution. Putin could begin negotiating tomorrow & end the war just as easily, if he could muster the willpower. Bush should persuade Putin to confront the problem's true cause." I fear Putin doesn't want a solution, like Gerry Adams in No.Ireland. And AlQaeda.


Better Europe structure? No, I don't mean the one proposed by Giscard d'Estaing though that's progress. But a far better proposal by a Danish MP who sent me a copy. He would transform EU into a Europe of Democracies (ED), a treaty association of free & self-governing Euro states & an open economic area. No constitution. Organized by a Treaty on Euro Cooperation. ED would radically simplify the 85,000 pages of EU rules. Instead, focus on cross-frontier issues. National parliaments retain power. The 30 diff ways to decision-making will be reduced to 2: laws & recommendations. Rules only valid if ratified by national parliaments, who have veto on any issue deemed vital. Transparency re decision-making process & relevant documents. No laws by Luxembourg Euro Court, & Court shall respect Euro Convention on Human Rights. I urge Euro readers contact their EU parliamentarians to embrace this plan. Info from Jens-Peter Bonde, Europa-Parliament. Fax (32) 2284.9167. www.bonde.dk email: Jbonde@europarl.eu.int


Currencies The US$ dropped like a stone after I went long (as a hedge) at last HSL deadline. I was stopped out within 48 hours. Never mind; that's what insurance is for, to not be needed. US$ fell, then rallied strongly for 3 wks & has now fallen back to its 2002 low zone again. Still in major downtrend. ··The euro rose, fell, rose since lastime, is at its high now. SwissFr looks strong. Oz$ too. ··Best currencies to use for time deposits are Norwegian kroner & NZ$. Both yield over 6% & both have strong charts vs US$. ··The £ is strong vs US$, looks higher medium & longterm. ··It's safer to be in currencies not at war. That must be true, as they are all strong vs US$ these days. If U have all/most of your money in US$, I submit U R spitting into the wind & getting very wet. And no yield. U enjoy going down with the ship? At minimum: diversify. ··If US$ continues to fall only gradually, it won't have a dramatic systemic effect. But a sharp fall, due, for example, to a war that goes wrong, or China/Japan dumping US bonds, would be very disruptive. In any case, US$ weakness is gold bullish. Just a matter of degree. ··A safe prediction by JB: "The dollar-standard will be in tatters by the end of the decade."


"Personal liberty is critically important, & it should be important to all of us, irrespective of party affiliation, or even philosophy." So says retiring US Senator Dick Armey, explaining his battles with Bush over the USA Patriot Act, passed by Congress in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, & the new Homeland Security department. "That's the essence of America to me, more than any other thing. What makes us unique in the history of the world is our devotion to personal liberty."

Armey said it was his belief that personal liberty must be protected -- even as the nation wages its fight against terrorists -- that caused him to insist that many of the surveillance provisions of the Patriot Act expire, unless Congress votes again to allow them. And that belief spurred him to fight -- often successfully -- Attorney General John Ashcroft's controversial efforts to increase domestic spying of American citizens. 3 cheers for Dick Armey.

 

World's Leading SCUMBAGS

It helps to keep scumbag names up in lights so the unwashed masses aren't misled & SBs get their comeuppance sooner. Worms don't like the hot light of publicity. I've added new names, at the end.

Robert Mugabe, President, Zimbabwe: Dictator, mass murderer.
Eduard Shevardnadze, President, Georgia: Mass murderer.
Gerry Adams, No.Ireland: Front man for IRA killers, slimeball.
Mikhail Gorbachev, ex-USSR pres: dangerous undercover KGB exec.
Yasser Arafat, PLO leader: Frontman for Hamas, Hizbollah.
Saddam Hussein, President, Iraq: Mass murderer, dictator.
Jesse Jackson, Rainbow Coalition. US: Fomenter of racial hatred.
Nelson Mandela, ex-SoAfr pres: Ex-terrorist/ex-murder boss.
Slobodan Milosevic, ex-Yugoslav pres/dictator: Mass murderer.
Radovan Karadzic, ex-Yugoslav govt/military: Mass murderer.
Ratko Mladic, ex-Yugoslav govt/military: Mass murderer.
Osama bin Laden, al Qaida leader: Mass murderer, terrorist.
Edward Heath, ex UK Prime Minister: Damaged UK by joining Common Mkt, created imaginary EU dependency, paved way for euro inclusion, sabotaged Tory's conservative principles.
Indonesia's military, collectively.
Fidel Castro
, Cuban President, dictator, murderer
Vladimir Putin, KGB, Pres, Russia, mass murderer in Chechnya.

 

Uncle's Notes: I agree with #1 US bond ace Bill Gross, who is betting higher inflation rates mean bond bull run is past. Says "bond market's salad days are over." He's mgr of world's largest mutual fund, the $66.3 bil Pimco Total Return fund. Says 4-5% is best U can get in next few yrs. Says for highest yields look to corp bonds, US Treasury securities with inflation protection, & Euro & emerging mkt bonds. Note: with higher yields comes higher risk. Nothing is free. ··Many Brits disagree with my praise of BBC-World Svc, due to its socialist bent. But that's a given with mass media. It's merely the best of a bad lot & the most professional & globally oriented.

One reason multi-nat'l corps rule the world is they're always pro-active, whereas govts & the public are reactive. We don't know what's coming & only react after the fact. Eg, genetically modified food. Corps push untested products, tech, & svcs at us daily & we can't judge them fast enough for our protection. Nor do we have the tools to evaluate. The speed is overwhelming. ··Let there be no doubt: if terrorists attack targets in UK, Blair will get blame, for his total & obedient alignment with all Bush pronouncements. Each UK death will be labeled "Blair-caused." Even ONE attack will assure Blair won't be reelected. ···Beware emails with your email address in the subject line. That's a trick to get U to open it. Some are cons or spam; some are viruses or crashmakers. I ignore every email using this trick. Even highlighting can be dangerous. Ignoring is safer.

US 6% jobless number supports my case that US never left recession. ···Please vet my Investment Box in each HSL (pg 9). I fear many of U are top heavy here or there. Note the diversification offered by my % #'s. Numbers change a bit each time. ···I forecast US Fed will restart the 30-yr bond, maybe longer, & peg the 2, 5, 10-yr notes at a fixed rate or floor rate. Has been done before, in WWII & Vietnam. UK did also. ··US Senator Lugar, Foreign Relations Comm chair, asks: "What if we overthrow Saddam but still don't know where the weapons are? Or what if a new govt is installed & they say: we're sorry but we've got to keep the bomb as we've got Iran next door."

Chart of Chevrontexaco is bearish, a short at 64. Big money isn't buying oil stks, ergo; they don't think Iraq war is likely. ··LATimes Walter Hamilton writes: "US govt has pursued corporate rogues with zeal, subjected alleged wrongdoers to humiliation & jail. But when it comes to disgraceful conduct on Wall St, the prosecutors approach appears to be kid-gloved in comparison." Conclusion: NY doesn't want to spook the stk mkt. Private corps get punished. Wall St gets pampered. Justice isn't just blind in NY; it's bribed. ··Germany poised to impose 15% tax on capital gains. Isn't it funny how left or socialist govts always do the opposite of what is needed? Instead of cutting taxes, they raise them. ··Sweden to hold join-euro referendum. Every Euro govt, defeated in any referendums on any subject, tries again. The public, U see, is stupid, must get repeat chances to get it right. U must realize, govt knows best.

If Xmas shopping is buoyant, it will boomerang in 2003 as the bills come due. Personal debt soaring; credit card payment default at record level. ··Some Americans are quietly removing their flags from houses/cars, as they could be targets for extremists in same town. ··John Percival, Currency Bulletin, says "We can't have a 1929-style crash unless/until there's a real estate price slump in the West. If they do, we'll have to hold our hats as all other conditions have been fulfilled."


Potpourri Delighted that my 3 best friends in US Congress got reelected, & with good majorities: Ron Paul, 68% of vote; Phil Crane, 57%; Dana Rohrabacher, 62%. Congrats! I miss superman Larry McDonald in Congress (killed in KAL007 flight by Russian reds) & Steve Symms, now with Freedom Alliance. All freedom fighters; not too many around. ···6th grade history test: "Moses led the Hebrew slaves to the Red Sea where they made unleavened bread, which is bread without any ingredients. Moses went up on Mount Cyanide to get the 10 commandments. He died before he ever reached Canada." This kid will probably head the US State Dept some day.

U recall I predicted CNBC would drop or drastically cut back financial news when DJIA drops below 5000 or whatever, & become a sports channel? It seems they're getting ready. They now call themselves a "Money & Sport" Channel! ···Another 6th grade kid: "Beethoven wrote music even though he was deaf. He was so deaf he wrote loud music. He took long walks in the forest even when everyone was calling for him. Beethoven expired in 1827 & later died for this." This kid is destined to be a pop star. ···We've run out of HSL green paper, so we had to switch to a darker green (more like money?) (or Xmas trees?) & to compensate, a fatter type face to catch more ink. Hope U can read ok?

A big plus for Viagra's rising popularity: falling demand for exotic remedies for sexual problems, eg, deer horns, seal bits, tiger bones, etc ···I'm enclosing that "Do U need a tax deduction?" sheet again, in case U forgot to make use of it. Time is short. Re-up for 4yrs? ···Why didn't Noah swat those 2 mosquitoes? ···Why don't sheep shrink when it rains? ···Why don't U ever see the headline: "Psychic wins fortune at horse track."? ···Seriously, super pop star Bono, who helps various good causes, eg, Aids & food/clean water in Africa, says: "It's more important to be relevant than successful." Correct. ···Mark Twain said: "I'm opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position."

If U feel in a wild, crazy, holiday mood, U might be bold & daring & give someone an HSL (or GCRU) subscription for Xmas. That's pretty outrageous, eh? But it's a surprise gift that can make a difference in their life. ···Did U see the Wizard of Id cartoon: "That's Robbing hood. He robs the rich & gives to the poor" "Well, I'll be darned, a liberal with a mask." ···Next HSL will be mailed Jan 27. Email & fax subscribers will have in hand on Jan 26. Next on-line update FMU will be: Dec 22-23. Next GoldChartsRUs: Dec 11 (each Wed). ···Why is bottled lemon juice made with artificial flavour, & dishwashing liquid "made with real lemons?"

"No animals were harmed in the printing of this page, although the barking kelpie next door is living on borrowed time, let me tell you." ···Amazing anagrams: When U rearrange the letters of George Bush, it's: he bugs Gore. Or rearrange Dormitory: dirty room. Or: slot machines: cash lost in me. Presbyterian: best in prayer. ···Fairchild Electronics & Honeywell Computers may merge. New name: Fairwell Honeychild. ··Another pending merger: 3M & Goodyear. New name: MMM Good. ··· Lots of light touch today for the holidays. Smiling reduces wrinkles & laughing improves health. Ho ho ho. Ha ha ha, he he he.

Dear HSL family, our mini-staff wishes U a maxi happy-smiley holiday zone. Tell your friends & family U love 'em.

A cheery Santa SoLong from your private guru, Uncle Harry D (for Do unto others) Schultz

###


HSL Harry Schultz Life Strategies

HSL is the original international newsletter, 39 yrs old & a gung-ho freedom fighter, gold advocate & stock/bond/futures mkt trading/analyst advisor. HSL is listed as #1 top performing newsletter over the past 12-months, by Hulbert Financial Digest. HSL also deals with where U should live & how (originator of "PT" strategy -- Practically Transparent).

HSL is heavy on geo politics, intelligence-guided health, trading stock/bond mkts, living everywhere & nowhere, contrary opinion oriented & chart laced. Harry Schultz has been in the Guinness Book of Records for 22 yrs as the World's Highest Paid Investment Consultant. You can get his advice for as little as US$246 for a 8-mos trial-peek subscription. Or normal 1 year price of US$332. Or a lifetime sub for just US$2,447. HSL is available via e-mail, fax, or mail. You can order here via credit card online. OR subscribe via fax or mail.


Who is
Harry Schultz
?

Chevalier Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS, is the highest paid investment consultant in the world at US$2,400/hour-US$3,400/hour on weekends (International Edition Guinness Book of Records 1981-2002).

To keep in touch with developments around the globe, Harry draws from correspondents in many countries, plus mountains of international newspapers, magazines, and other data. At the top command posts of Harry's elite HSL team are Chief Market Analyst, Paul Griffiths, and Research Editor/geopolitical analyst Gordon Frisch. Loyal HSL subscribers in 90 nations are much more than simply names and addresses; Harry and his team consider them part of their cherished global family.

Mr. Schultz is regularly quoted in books, articles, and interviews and by other newsletters (the "alternative press"). Arthur Hailey, a longtime personal friend and HSL subscriber, based his character Lewis Dorsey in the bestseller The Moneychangers, directly on Harry Schultz.

Harry has lived for extended periods in 18 nations, and shorter periods in many others. Knighted five times, Harry is a man for all seasons and a true citizen of the world.

Contact: E-mail: HSLmentor@racsa.co.cr
Fax: Monaco (377) 97 70 31 48
Mail: POBox 622, CH-1001-Lausanne, Switzerland

"I wouldn't want to do without HSL. It's a must for global outlook and investing." - Ron Paul U.S. Congressman

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