The Grapes of Wrath
Richard Russell [big] snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Dec 3, 2008
Extracted
from the Dec 2, 2008 edition of Richard's Remarks
December 2, 2008 - The Bernanke-Paulson team is doing
everything in its power to hold back the forces of deflation.
The first indication that they're succeeding will be the stock
market ceasing to deflate.
A trillion is the new billion.
The government has thrown tens of billions at the face of various
deflating entities in a desperate attempt at halting deflation.
It hasn't worked. The stock market's opinion, so far, is that
"it's not going to work." You can't cure the disease
with more of the same "medicine" that caused the disease.
The only cure for a crashing stock market is exhaustion, and
it is probably the same for the US economy. The bear market in
stocks has an economic equivalent - a severe recession, better
known as a depression.
There is an inflection point
somewhere ahead that will mark the death of deflation and the
base for forthcoming inflation. We have not reached that inflection
point yet. The stock market continues to deflate and the treasury
bond market continues to discount deflation. If Bernanke and
Paulson fail to halt deflation, we will be facing a deflationary
disaster ahead. It will wipe out all the leveraging and inflation
built into the US economy since World War II. For years I've
been writing that ultimately we will face the choice - "inflate
or die." Depression and deflation are the economic equivalent
of death. I saw it once, and I never want to see it again - which
is what today's site is all about.
Maybe wealthy La Jolla isn't
a fair test, but I walk around La Jolla, and life appears to
go on as usual. No real changes except that I see more "Sale"
signs on the retail shops, and I see more "For Lease"
signs posted in the windows of various blacked-out store fronts.
People are shopping, couples sit in the sun at outdoor restaurants
chewing on hamburgers or sipping coffee. Nothing much has changed
in dreamy La Jolla - it will.
What is changing is the stock
market and the Treasury bond market. Treasury bonds are hitting
new highs, as the conservative bond market crowd pours money
into the Treasury market on the thesis that come what may, they'll
always get their money back if they buy Treasuries (that is,
unless the dollar tanks, I think to myself).
Meanwhile, yesterday, the Dow
was down over 679 points or 7.7% - so much for the five-day rally
that served to get the bulls' hopes up.
My mind goes back to mid-1929.
My parents are still giving cocktail parties for their friends
(in those days, parties at restaurants were rare and unusual).
My dad has just bought a Buick touring car, and we are preparing
to take a ride to nearby Stamford, Connecticut. My sister and
I are both going to private schools, and my mom is dreaming of
getting out of the West Side and moving to the more "acceptable
East Side." Dad is looking over the stock tables in The
New York Times, and he wonders why he has not been more adventurous
- Dad will only buy two stocks, American Telephone with its famous
$9 dividend and "recession-proof Woolworth," which
he terms "the poor man's stock."
During September through November
of 1929, the market crashes. My uncle Irving jumps out of the
tenth story window of a midtown Manhattan hotel. Irving commits
suicide because his department store stock cuts its dividend
in half (Irving lives on that dividend). After the great crash
of '29, nothing in Manhattan seems very different. I can still
ride the subway to school, all the way to Riverdale for a nickel.
And a good sandwich at the Automat still costs only 15 cents.
I'm given 35 cents for lunch every day. I usually buy a sandwich
or a plate of cheese macaroni for 15 cents and a piece of pie
for a dime at the Automat.
One year later everything has
changed. Men are out of work. The lines outside the employment
offices are growing longer - some wind around the block. Tired
men in patched clothes sit on the sidewalk with outstretched
metal cups and signs that read,"Veteran, God bless you."
The mood in the city is changing, and you can sense the fear
in the air. My parents' friends are calling the house and discussing
how much money they have lost in the stock market. Some have
lost their jobs. My father has a grim look on his face, he seems
worried day and night.
In the year 1939 my father
loses his job. He suffers a nervous breakdown. My mom
doesn't want me to see it, and they send me on a youth hostel
bicycle trip to California. On that trip I see the "Grapes
of Wrath" up close and personal. California is filled with
Okies and their beat-up trucks (people from Oklahoma who had
fled the Dust Bowl and are looking for any kind of work in the
Golden State). The California sheriffs and highway patrols are
busy sending the poor Okies back home. "You want to work
in California,bud? Forget it, we don't have enough jobs for our
own." I'm stopped on my bike (I'm 16 years old) by the local
sheriffs three times.
"Watcha doin' here kid?
Lookin' for a job? Because if you are, I'm puttin' you on a box
car and sending you back to wherever the hell you came from."
"No sir, I'm with a Youth
Hostel group. We're just sight-seeing."
"Well you're not going
to like the sights around here. And don't let me catch you lookin'
for a job, kid. OK, get back on your bike - you can go."
Those were the fun days. I
remember them well.
And now I'm
wondering whether we're headed for another round of "fun
days." The crashing stock market tells me it could happen.
I don't want to see the days of 1939 again.
[Lots more
follows for subscribers.]
Dec 2, 2008
Richard Russell
website: Dow
Theory Letters
email: Dow Theory Letters
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