Precious Metals Market Timing
Will Gold and Gold Shares
Rise or Fall in the Near Term?
Ron Rosen
Aug 24, 2005
"Time is more
important than price; when time is up price will reverse."
W.D.Gann
There is much being written
about the imminent rise in the price of gold and gold shares.
There are numerous reasons why I believe there is more corrective
action ahead before gold and the gold shares rally and the next
more powerful second phase starts. Four of the most important
reasons are;
1. Delta turning points
2. Thirty year Gann Master Cycles
3. The Quarterly gold chart
4. Monthly wave count
I have discussed these four
items in previous reports and will continue to keep you updated
on their progress. In addition we have an alternate plan for
reentering the market in the event a clear and undeniable move
up takes place. We need evidence that the bottom is in place
and the next bullish phase has started. Without the evidence
we are guessing that the bottom is in. From what I read a lot
of folks have been guessing for about two years. That is not
satisfactory for us. I would rather pay the insurance premium
of higher prices and know that the move has started. The next
phase, if history is any indication, will be substantially greater
than the last phase. The "insurance premium" will help
us avoid further sideways and downward action of both the bullion
and the shares. If we are sufficiently patient we may enter close
to a genuine bottom. It's either near the bottom or hop aboard
after the train has started to move in the right direction. Either
way we are keeping our check books and money "holstered"
until we hear and or see the starting gun. I don't hear it or
see it just yet. If it surprises us our plan of entry will get
us aboard using a proven and successful method. So, we wait.
This is the chart that, when
the clearly defined more than 20 year trend line is breached,
will cause a greater than volcanic eruption in price and attract
a vast amount of buying. It will most likely drag the entire
precious metals complex with it. If the shares perform their
usual job of rising before the metal we will have an early warning
sign. I mean rising on huge volume where blocks of hundreds of
thousands of shares are printed on the tape and an occasional
million share trade takes place. It will be mayhem in the gold
pits but we are not there yet and we must be patient. It appears
that the much ridiculed W.D.Gann observation that years ending
in the number 5 are up years for the stock market may be keeping
the stock market from declining. 2006 may not be so fortunate
for the stock market. We have a Delta Long Term low in gold due
between Sept 2005 and July 2006.
QUARTERLY GOLD CHART
click image to see
chart
The pattern and formation in
the gold charts 30 years apart are remarkably similar. There
is a Delta medium term # 5 low due in October and long term #
4 low due in February 2006. If long term # 4 decides to arrive
with medium # 5 low there could be a vicious drop. However that
would be the end of this two year correction.
WEEKLY GOLD CHART
2005
click image to see
chart
WEEKLY GOLD CHART
1975
click image to see
chart
Ron Rosen
email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com
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Disclaimer: The contents of this
letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment
advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and
you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and
analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed
to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot
accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as
a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held
liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement
contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with
their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in
any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal
investment decisions.
The Delta Story
Tee charts reproduced
courtesy of The Delta Society International.
321gold Inc
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