Precious Metals Market Timing
"What's it all About Alfie?"

Ron Rosen
Aug 16, 2005

It's about a song from the 1960's. In physics E=MC² is Einstein's theory that led to the Nuclear world and its resultant problems. Catastrophe for some, help for others.

In the markets E + M = C²

Emotions + Money = Catastrophe²

How can this catastrophe be avoided and how can our emotions be kept under control and out of the picture when we are investing or trading? Well, for one thing recognize that the more you read and digest and internalize opinions that the economic and financial world is going to collapse and the U.S.Dollar will be worthless the more your emotions are attached to the markets for gold and silver. Anything, anyone, any collection of opinions that harp on a coming financial disaster and cause you to be emotionally involved with your trading or investments is not doing you any favors. A constant beating up and flogging of the Federal Reserve System, Allan Greenspan, various politicians and failings of governments, their policies and mistakes, right or wrong don't tend to soothe ones nerves or anxieties. It does tend to keep one emotionally involved with trading or investing. Listening to the nightly news, which is mostly the days latest disasters, is not a great way to obtain a goods night sleep.

If we take all this talk of a coming collapse and bad economic times and terrorist attacks and put them in their proper place we will discover something that has been known for a very long time.

History repeats and people and governments run by people have not changed much over time. Cycles of human behavior have been around since humans have been around. We can recognize this and use this information for our benefit. We can not stop the cycles of ups and downs but we surely can work on protecting ourselves and our loved ones and try to keep these cycles working for us not against us.

Just about every species on Earth have been studied and we know their patterns and cyclic behavior under most environments. We have statistically recorded their every action and reaction and know that every species has their particular set of,"Species Specific" responses to the environment they find themselves in. However when it involves the Human species we think of ourselves differently. We fail to see or refuse to believe that we are acting out our species specific responses in the stock and commodity markets. We further refuse to believe that we do this on a timely basis.

It is my contention that we do act out our," Species Specific" responses in the markets over time. I further believe that there are three excellent tools available to help us interpret and benefit by this consistent and repetitive human behavior.

1. W.D.Ganns 30 and 60 year Master Cycle studies

2. Wave Theory that helps us identify completed moves.

3. Delta Turning points that provide us with the timely order of highs and lows.

Delta provides us with time of arrival not price. The time of arrival has a range of time and that range has been plotted and noted by employing a massive computer study going back as far as recorded prices were available. This is perfect order not perfect accuracy.

I will be using these three tools and showing where they are applicable and how they can help us make timing decisions and keep us on the correct side of the markets. When you see how much they can help, your emotional involvement with the markets may decrease and that will be a great help.

Today I will be posting the daily and weekly Delta charts showing the Delta turning points plus showing where we are in the gold cycle compared to the cycle 30 years ago.

I will be repeating these observations over and over as they unfold. By comparing them to the past we will know if the cycle is unfolding in the present as it did in the past. If it is not we will obviously be forewarned that something else is going on and we may benefit by that knowledge. So, it is work and constant study and observation. Much of it is repetitious but I personally find it fascinating when movements unfold as I have anticipated based on the past. Of course I can't guarantee that everything I project will be perfectly accurate. If any of my subscribers believe I may be mistaken in a particular projection or they see it differently or just have questions, they can post those opinions and questions on the Delta web site provided for subscribers only. I look forward to your comments and observations. I have worked hard on getting my ego out of the way when it comes to making statements about the markets. Ego is the enemy. When great athletes or artists or performers of any kind give a truly great performance they often say it felt like they weren't there and whatever happened was happening thru them by some outside force. Athletes who have an exceptionally great day and experience a performance that is rare often say they were in the "Zone." However they most likely spent years or decades trying to sharpen and improve their ability to perform. At some point in time this work pays off. The truth seeks expression thru those who have prepared themselves to express it. Together we may accomplish something very unique. That would be not only making money thru our market activities but understanding what the force is behind market movements. It is a hidden force but has been discovered a very long time ago.

I have geared our activities so we will not try to pick a bottom either in the gold shares or the bullion. Bottoming picking is a useless and costly game. The approach best suited to profitable investing is to wait for the proof that a bottom is in. Even if we had to wait until new all time highs were made and pay those prices it would be a better way to go. The reason it would be better is because if the precious metals complex continues to follow the 30 year cycle we will have more down side action into 1976 for both gold and gold shares. This would be painful stuff to go thru if we jump in every time the gold complex has a powerful up day only to be followed by a further decline. The probability is that the next phase will be much larger and more powerful than the first phase that topped in December 2003. That phase saw the HUI rise from 35 to over 260, approximately 750 percent. If the recent low for the HUI was the final low at 165 and the next phase only equals the first phase that means the HUI will reach a high of ;

If we miss the bottom and had to wait to buy at the old high of 265 for the HUI our percentage increase if the rise just matches the previous rise will be approximately 470 percent. However the probabilities are extremely high that the next phase will be substantially greater and more powerful than the last phase. It is mostly Ego that pushes us to go bottom picking. Ego and fear of missing the move are not friends of a patient approach.

So, lets move on to the charts and the action since my last report on Monday.

First in line will be an update on today's market action in gold bullion and gold bullion turning points.

In my last report I said, "There may be a momentary false breakout to the upside but it will be quickly followed by a move down." I based that on the fact that Delta Medium # 4 high is dead ahead and the range for arrival is August 10th to Sept 7th with a due date of August 24th. Since the down side pressure is being exerted by long term Delta # 4 low I expect medium Delta # 4 high to be early. When the trend is down the highs tend to arrive in the early part of the range and the lows tend to arrive in the late part of the range. Today's action was indicative of how valuable having the Delta points really is. There is no other way I would have been comfortable saying further movement up to be followed shortly after by a continued down move all the way to long term Delta # 4 low. I have been observing Delta turning points for over 12 years and it is still fascinating to observe them taking place when they should. We may have further to go on the upside but we should be headed down soon. There may be a false move up out of the triangle. This could bring a rush of buyers who will be disappointed rather quickly.

DECEMBER WEEKLY GOLD
click image to see chart

DECEMBER DAILY GOLD
click image to see chart

Aug 10, 2005
Ron Rosen

email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

Tee charts reproduced courtesy of The Delta Society International.

321gold Inc