Precious Metals Market Timing
Life, Love and The Markets

Ron Rosen
Aug 8, 2005

"Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse." - W.D.Gann

In Life, love and the markets triangles and wedges are sometimes very deceptive and can produce very painful results. Wedges often have somewhat of a triangular appearance. There is much being written about the bullish triangles and wedges appearing in the Gold and Silver charts. Some folks are saying this is obviously bullish and gold and silver are poised to move upward to new highs once these formations are completed. If we look back over our shoulders, oh say approximately 30 years we will discover that this is not necessarily true. The charts below give us a look back to 1974 and 1975 and show us what the resolution of the triangles and wedges in gold and silver produced at that time. Wasn't it Flip Wilson's Josephine who said, "What you sees is what you get"? Back in 1974 and 1975, if you were bullish on gold and silver, what you saw was something you'd rather not "get."

In the early 1970's I spent many months in the New York City public library reading old Wall Street journals and New York Times business sections. They were both on micro film and the library had a room and machines that were used for reading the film. In addition to reading the Journal and the Times I spent many weeks reading the original works of Ralph Nelson Elliott of Elliott Wave fame. I distinctly remember that he said his wave theory is not predictive but is best used to identify completed moves. Most of what we read written by Elliott wave theorists is that the wave theory is telling them that based on their interpretation of the wave theory, they are able to predict what is most likely to happen. Maybe yes, maybe no, but that is not what, in his original works, Ralph Nelson Elliott said his theory should be used for. However he did a bit of predicting himself.
 
I can not predict with any degree of certainty what the current triangle and wedge appearing formations on the gold and silver charts are predicting for their future but I can tell you with absolute certainty what they predicted 30 years ago.  However I will wager a guess that they are predicting a similar resolution this time around. That's a guess not a prediction. Maybe this is just an old timers instincts or as the kids say, "Been there, done that."

Stay Well,
Ron Rosen

email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

Tee charts reproduced courtesy of The Delta Society International.

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