Precious Metals
Market Timing - Update and Comments Ron
Rosen May 18, 2005
1 2
The Euro has completed an apparent
five (5) wave up move on December 30, 2004 at 136.78. It now
most likely has embarked on its own three (3) wave corrective
downward journey to a probable level of 116.06.
EURO MONTHLY
CHART
![](rosen051805/7.gif)
THE 60 YEAR CYCLE IN BONDS
There have been only 3 historic lows in price, highs in interest
rates in the last 140 years. These occurred in 1864, 1920 and
1981.The time periods between these lows in price and highs in
rates were 56 years and 61 years. This is considered the 60 year
cycle. W.D.Gann considered the 60 year cycle the "great
cycle." The last major low in interest rates occurred
on January 26, 1946. This decline in rates, rise in price was
taking place during World War 2 which endured one of the two
greatest advances in commodity prices in the 20th century. According
to the experts it did not make sense for interest rates to go
down during a booming commodity bull market, but they did.
Shades of "Yesteryear"
we have been living thru a booming commodity market while long
term treasury rates kept declining! According to the experts
there is no explanation for long term treasury rates declining
while commodities were booming. However now that commodities
are selling off this must mean deflation is dead ahead, according
to some long time experts, and that's why rates are going down.
However if you look at the chart of the CRB index I provided
you will notice that 30 years ago (yep the 30 year Gann Master
cycle) the commodity index had a vicious correction right about
the same time that we are experiencing one now. If you look at
the Gold charts I have provided you will also notice that Gold
topped 30 years ago (Jan 1, 1975) at around $205 first London
fix and proceeded to drop to $103.50 an ounce. Gold recently
topped in Dec 2004.
Both the commodity index and the precious metals went on to new
all time highs after the correction was over. Some commodities
bottomed in the summer of 1975. Cotton was rising right thru
the correction 30 years ago. As a matter of fact there was one
heck of a bull market in cotton all thru 1975 and right into
1976. The cotton chart from 30 years ago and the current cotton
chart are included at the end of this report. Cotton kept on
going up right thru the overall correction 30 years ago.
Is it possible for long term
treasury interest rates to keep going down right into the year
2006, 60 years after they last bottomed.? I know of someone who
believed this kind of thing happens.
"That which hath been is now; and that which is to be hath
already been; and God requireth that which is past."
-Ecclesiastes
You don't have to be religious
to understand the significance of this statement.
I do remember the year 1946;
I was in High School at that time. Even with hormones raging
I can recall many people saying that now that the war is over
we are going right back into the great depression only now it
will be worse. Something went awry with that prediction. Well
here we are almost 60 years later and some folks are saying an
economic disaster and deflation are right around the corner.
Maybe they will be right this time but if we know what we are
doing to a high degree of probability we can not only survive
we can prosper. So that's the goal, whatever happens prosper.
I will be doing my best to help one and all. Cotton was booming
in 1975/1976. Check out the cotton and gold charts I have provided
at the end of this report for cyclic action 30 years apart. Again
"shades of yesteryear."
30 TREASURY
BOND YIELD
![](rosen051805/8.gif)
COTTON
WEEKLY CHART 2005
![](rosen051805/9.gif)
COTTON
WEEKLY CHART 1974/1976
![](rosen051805/10.gif)
GOLD WEEKLY
CHART 2005
![](rosen051805/11.gif)
GOLD WEEKLY
CHART 1975/1976
![](rosen051805/12.gif)
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Metals Market Timing may be obtained at www.trade-delta.com
or contact rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com
Ode to the
favored gold shares
But remember this
"They shall rise again."
Have A Nice Day
'Help, help,' said a man. 'I'm drowning.'
'Hang on,' said a man from the shore.
'Help, help,' said the man. 'I'm not clowning.'
'Yes, I know, I heard you before.
Be patient dear man who is drowning,
You, see I've got a disease.
I'm waiting for a Doctor J. Browning.
So do be patient please.'
'How long,' said the man who was drowning. 'Will it take
for the Doc to arrive? '
'Not very long,' said the man with the disease. 'Till
then try staying alive.'
'Very well,' said the man who was drowning. 'I'll try
and stay afloat.
By reciting the poems of Browning
And other things he wrote.'
'Help, help,' said the man with the disease,'I
suddenly feel quite ill.'
'Keep calm.' said the man who was drowning,' Breathe deeply
and lie quite still.'
'Oh dear,' said the man with the awful disease. 'I think
I'm going to die.'
'Farewell,' said the man who was drowning.
Said the man with the disease,'goodbye.'
So the man who was drowning, drownded
And the man with the disease past away.
But apart from that,
And a fire in my flat,
It's been a very nice day.
POEM BY
SPIKE MILLIGAN
Ron Rosen
email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com
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are available at:
www.wilder-concepts.com/rosenletter.aspx
Disclaimer: The contents of this
letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment
advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and
you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and
analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed
to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot
accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as
a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held
liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement
contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with
their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in
any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal
investment decisions.
The Delta Story
Tee charts reproduced
courtesy of The Delta Society International.
321gold Inc
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