Precious Metals Market Timing
HUI, Gold, Silver, Homestake
Ron Rosen
May 10, 2005
"Time is more important
than price; when time is up price will reverse" W.D.
Gann
"There is an appointed
time for everything, and there is a time for every event under
heaven". Ecclesiastes 3:1
HUI DAILY
 MEDIUM # 1 LOW - DUE JUNE 15 HUI WEEKLY
 MEDIUM # 1 LOW - DUE JUNE 15 GOLD DAILY
 MEDIUM # 2 LOW - DUE JUNE 15
GOLD WEEKLY
 MEDIUM # 2 LOW - DUE JUNE 15 HUI MONTHLY
 HOMESTAKE
MINING
 ***** 1967 to 1970***** FIRST PHASE
COMPLETELY WIPED OUT This report may seem a bit
far out to some but I am going to tell it like I see it, interpret
it might be a better way to put it. First with Delta turning
points the biggest moves tend to come on either side of point
# 1. You will see on the charts above, beginning at the top,
that both the HUI and Gold Bullion are on either side of Medium
Delta points # 1. The HUI is on the left of point # 1 and Gold
bullion is on the right of point # 1. Both of the points they
are approaching (# 1 and # 2) are scheduled to be lows on or
about June 15th.
If you look at the charts of
gold bullion you will see that bullion is scheduled to make a
low at # 2 on or about June 15th. We may be witness to a decline
in both but first the HUI may have to complete a small 4th wave
up. To see this look at the HUI chart that has the ABC corrective
pattern I posted just above the chart. It appears the small 4th
wave may have a bit more to go on the upside. To confirm this
you can see on the daily HUI chart we are headed up to an intermediate
# 5(red). We should be there in 5 trading days plus or minus
a few. Once there we should head down to complete this ABC 18
month long corrective pattern. If the HUI bottoms in the area
of 150 it would have to be considered a flat type correction.
A flat type correction occurs when there is a tremendous amount
of underlying buying potential. The potential buyers start accumulating
before the price can go any lower thus the ABC pattern looks
flat compared to a zig zag which has a lightening bolt appearance.
The last leg down of the zig zag makes a substantial low beneath
the rest of the pattern.
Now for the really far out
interpretation let's look at the chart of Homestake mining.
I am going to suggest that we may witness the "Rule of Alternation"
taking place more then 30 years apart.
THE RULE of ALTERNATION
"It primarily instructs
the analyst not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because
the last cycle behaved in a certain manner, this one is sure
to be the same."..."Elliott went even further in stating
that, in fact, alternation was virtually a law of markets."
If you will look at the chart
of Homestake Mining you will see that I made some notations at
the bottom of the chart. The first phase of the gold bull market
of the 1970's ended with a vicious zig zag type wipe out of the
entire first phase rise. That first phase ended in 1970. You
can see this clearly on the Homestake chart. It was a Zig Zag
although it does not look like it on that chart.
Our first phase over 30 years
later is coming to an end and looks very much like a potential
flat correction and not a ZIG ZAG. This makes a lot of sense
to me because there is a great deal more institutional interest
in the precious metals market today then there was 30 years ago.
Perhaps the "BIG" money is hiding nearby waiting to
start accumulating or reaccumulating. I doubt that Buffett
or his peers had much interest in precious metals or currencies
30 years ago. Wall Street has created the instruments they think
the public will want if they want to buy gold. Thirty odd years
ago the "house" seriously frowned on any broker that
was dealing in gold or silver shares. They were considered mavericks.
Not so this time around.
It appears to me that we may
be close to the end of this potential 18 month first phase correction.
I am guessing we will see the bottom in June/July. It may be
lower but I doubt it will be a total collapse like it was 30
plus years ago.
I will make a statement that
sounds braggadocios but I don't mean it that way. I actually
found it amazing that I was the only person I could find that
called the top of the precious metals share market back at the
end of 2003. I thought it was very obvious looking at the monthly
chart of the HUI. The HUI made an absolutely perfect 5 wave monthly
move. It could not have been more perfect, at least according
to me. I am sure there were others that saw and acted on this
but they did not go public with the information. If they saw
what I saw then, they probably see what I see now. I expect the
gold and silver bullion markets to spend many more months correcting
while the precious metal shares, the HUI and XAU, are being accumulated
and moving up slowly. Regardless of everything I have just written
I will not recommend buying the precious metal shares until the
market proves it has bottomed. The proof does not arrive with
the bottom it arrives after the bottom. I will be writing more
about this early next week.
The Precious
Metals Timing Letter may be subscribed to at the Delta site.
Charts with the Delta turning points, intermediate, medium and
long term, will be provided with the charts of gold, silver,
the HUI and XAU. Turning points for all gold shares are the same.
The Delta site address is, www.wilder-concepts.com.
I've left silver for last because
on my hit parade it belongs in last place In spite of all the
hype. I have in the past; I do now and probably always will consider
silver, "The Bitchy" Metal. This goes way back to when
jewelry artisans who were using the Lost Wax Method of making
jewelry never knew if a silver cast was going to be full of gaps
and air holes. They knew that gold casts were always perfect.
Because of silver's characteristics they dubbed it the
"Bitchy" metal. It seems that this characteristic has
drifted down to the trading pits. There is one thing silver can
not fool and that is the Delta turning points. The Delta turning
points are a measure of "Natures" timing. It's just
difficult to predict what extremes those movements will go to.
So the proper procedure is to settle for whatever the price is
when the time arrives.
"Time is more important
than price; when time is up price will reverse." W.D.
Gann
SILVER
WEEKLY
 May 10, 2005
Ron Rosen
email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com
Subscriptions
are available at:
www.wilder-concepts.com/rosenletter.aspx
 Disclaimer: The contents of this
letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment
advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and
you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair
Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and
analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed
to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot
accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as
a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held
liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement
contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with
their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in
any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal
investment decisions.
The Delta Story
Tee charts reproduced
courtesy of The Delta Society International.
321gold Inc
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