Precious Metals Market Timing
Dambusters

Ron Rosen
January 10, 2006

A Tsunami Wave to Remember

RONALD L.ROSEN
rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

December 7, 2005
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"Today, December 7, 2005, the HUI broke out and closed at a two year high. Today was confirmed as the first day of the second phase of the gold share bull market. The first phase lasted three years or approximately 750 business days. The correction lasted two years. The second phase is known to be the longest and strongest of the three phases. We have a long, long way to go before the second phase is complete." -Ron R

"The correction between the first and second phase lasted two years. The energy built up is huge. Today the dam burst. It's time to get aboard." -Ron R

"When a stock (or commodity) advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force that has been restrained and breaks out. Water may be held back by a dam, but if it breaks through the dam, you would know that it would continue downward until it reached another dam, or some obstruction or resistance which would stop it. Therefore, it is very important to watch old levels of stocks. The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce a larger movement than if it only accumulated during a short period of time" -W.D.Gann

Gold bullion has been held back for 23 years. The dam has broken.

RONALD L.ROSEN
rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

December 10, 2005
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"It does not appear to me that we should trade the current cycle the same way we traded the last cycle. I believe the precious metals market may have just given us a valuable clue that says it will accomplish its goal in the allotted time. However, since there is more work to be done this time around, it may not be spending a lot of time going down in corrections and sell offs. The extra work to be done is the destruction of the barricades made in an attempt to keep Mother Nature from fully expressing herself. She will now inform us as to what the price of gold and silver must be in order for her to undo what government has foolishly done. She will do that in the allotted time. In other words, "Don't mess with Mother Nature." Perhaps she will be satisfied with violent corrections in much shorter periods of time or just won't spend much time correcting. Either way it appears that less time is being spent in corrections this time around." -Ron R

RONALD L.ROSEN
rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

December 29, 2005
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"If you want to trade this precious metals market, trade lightly. Hold fast to the bulk of your commitment if it is shares and gold and silver coins. This precious metals market will most likely fool all types of technical analysis. It will not be a normal bull market. I will be tracking this bull with every bit of the 50 years of experience I have acquired. I will report everything and leave nothing out. Professional athletes spend much of their lives sweating and toiling in the hopes of getting to the "Big Game." Folks, whatever life has held for us up to this point, we are now in the "Big Game." -Ron R

Nature through the Moon controls tidal movements to the exact minute. We know exactly how high or low the tide will be at any minute on any day of the year in any given area on earth. However there is a wave that has the ability to distort and disguise all natural tidal movements. That wave is called a Tsunami wave. If you are caught in a Tsunami Wave you won't know or care about high or low tide. You will be overwhelmed by the force of the wave.

Delta turning points are based on nature and natural movements. They also can be overwhelmed by a Tsunami Wave of buying or selling. Once the wave passes, the movements of the tides, as well as Delta turning points, resume their natural patterns. It appears that gold bullion and the gold shares may be telling us that we are witnessing the beginning of a Market Tsunami Wave. This Tsunami Wave may wash away and drown most selling in the precious metals market. It may cause millions of participants to grab their life jackets that have a gold lining. We just may be witnessing something extremely rare. It is extremely rare for a huge number of financial market participants to wake up at the same time. If they all rush to enter at the same time we will probably see the largest Tsunami market wave in history. The reason it may be the largest is because in the history of the world there has never been trillions of dollars floating around and electronic machines capable of producing a "googolplex" of money.

"A googol is greater than the number of elementary particles in the known universe, which has been variously estimated from 1072 up to 1087. Since this is less than the number of zeroes in a googolplex, it would not be possible to write down or store a googolplex in decimal notation, even if all the matter in the known universe were converted into paper and ink or disk drives." -Wikipedia

I suggest that all trading of the precious metals and precious metal shares stop. Do not consider selling or trading any of your precious metal holdings at this time. When and if the P.M. market settles down and returns to the type of fluctuations that can be measured through time then trading may once again become manageable and profitable. I have been concerned that once the second phase started, trading would result in paying higher prices to get back in. Hang on to your position in the precious metals complex and don't let it go for any market related reason. If we do experience a sell off and sharp correction, try to ignore it. I will be encouraging you to ignore it. We have entered the "Golden Age" with a rush. I can not emphasize enough that the precious metals, including the shares, are in a technical and fundamental position that is more then just promising. If you can muster the emotional strength to hang on in the face of violent moves, the rewards will, to the highest probability, be monumental. Recognition of the fiat and loan problems of the U.S.A. and other nations is just beginning to dawn on the general population world wide. This is not the Age of Aquarius. It is the Age of Awakening. The awakening taking place world wide is to the definition of money. The definition does not involve paper or paper promises. The definition of money involves permanent indestructible value. The human race instinctively and unconsciously knows what money should be. As the World becomes more and more conscious of the truth, the tsunami that is just starting will drown all paper that has little or no value. I do not believe a financial Tsunami is tradable or should be traded. The technicals that are used to show when the precious metals market is over bought become useless in a raging bull market. They become useless because they can remain over bought for a very long time. In a raging bull market the Delta highs can be very late and the lows very early. This makes it difficult to use them for trading purposes.

The HUI, XAU, and the gold share markets are in their second phase. The second phase is the longest and strongest. I doubt the corrections will last as long as they did in the first phase.

Gold bullion at this point in its bull market defies a phase or wave description. The only way to describe the gold market is to say it is unwaveringly bullish. The HUI corrected for two years and gold bullion kept on rising. It appears that the shares are playing catch up. This may account for their unrelenting move up and their defying technical measurements.

My opinion is that now is not the right time to trade. Hold your positions if you have them. If you want to add more do so now and try not to worry about sell offs. I will be here trying to guide subscribers successfully through this budding financial Tsunami. If you have questions or want to make comments, you can post them on the Delta site.

I posted this response to questions about Delta turning points being early or late.

Good Morning one and all,

Great questions. We are living through a very special time in the markets. It is a time when all technical approaches to market timing may have to take a back seat while "Nature" rights the wrongs in our financial and political establishments. Delta is the best timing tool I have found in 50 years of searching. However, Delta works best when the system it is measuring is functioning in a relatively normal, healthy environment, including healthy, normal bear markets. When Delta to some extent becomes distorted, the system it is measuring is distorted. This knowledge is also a very valuable timing tool. We know Delta works. When it is being pushed around and turning points are early or late, the system it is measuring is being pushed around.

I write about this in the weekend report. The conduct of the precious metals markets, shares and bullion, may be telling us that we are at the beginning of a financial Tsunami wave. I believe this is true. One of the main reasons for this belief is the apparent distortions taking place in the Delta turning points. By causing us problems in interpretation they are giving us a most important clue.

Something beyond the normal is taking place in the precious metals market.

Delta was discovered by observing Nature at work and expressing herself through normal Human activities. Delta can also tell us that human financial and political activities have deviated from the normal. That is what I believe we are observing when Delta is difficult to interpret. Early and late turning points are telling us that something very big is happening. We can benefit by this knowledge as long as it continues. We can not only benefit - we best pay attention to it.

-Ron

What could possibly be causing distortions and early or late Delta turning points?

When the foundation of our political and economic system has been built on corruption of all kinds, the foundation eventually collapses. A building of any kind with a corrupted foundation will in time collapse. Below are excerpts from an article by Jay Ambrose.

" ...Accepting payment for policy cannot be tolerated.

"But as we Americans watch the story develop, likely experiencing anger and disgust at each new revelation, we will serve our land and the civic creed we embrace if we reflect that our politics are rife with another, subtler, but equally destructive form of corruption, and that this other corruption story has been developing for much of our history.

"It is the corruption of thinking there is nothing of larger significance than your own good, of backing down from what you believe because of popular prejudice, of compromising to the point of abandoning principle, of going along to get along. It is an insidious corruption of cowardice and self serving demagoguery, sometimes ego massage, and it is confined to no particular party or branch of government.

"You can find this corruption in the Supreme Court - not as justices with life terms seek a leg up politically, but as some put their self-supposed wisdom ahead of the plain meaning of the Constitution, thus winning the applause of many in media and academe, but simultaneously violating an oath, doing lasting damage to the rule of law and throwing the federal system out of kilter.

"These justices are teaching once again that when some acquire power, the ego gets puffed up and then gets puffed up some more until it knows few bounds and becomes corrupted.

" ...we should keep in mind that the word "corruption" derives in part from an older word meaning "to break." This is precisely what corrupt officials do-break things, precious things, things important for the benefit of all, things for which thousands have given their lives."

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The ingredients that can create a financial and political Tsunami are not only in place, they are active and have started to sweep away and drown the "dirt." This righting the wrong type of Tsunami can distort any and all technical tools used to measure the markets. However when a tool like Delta based on nature and natural movement becomes somewhat distorted, it is giving us a most important message: "Don't mess with Mother Nature." We had best listen and listen closely. My response to this message is: don't trade and don't let go of your precious metal holdings; add more when appropriate to your own finances. I will be writing more about this as the precious metals markets continue on their way. The delta web site is available for you to post your thoughts and ideas about the metals market. I look forward to your comments.

It appears to me that the monthly charts are giving us the best clues as to the future path of the gold and silver markets. I believe the reason for this is that those who put value on the monthly charts have a great deal of patience. The monthly charts provide us with a long term view of the true direction and not just shorter term fluctuations.

The monthly MACD has been a most reliable indicator.

The daily or weekly charts may from time to time appear to be pointing down. However, it is very difficult to find anything on this monthly chart of gold that points down. It just may be pointing to an accelerating long term rise.

Market Value Jan. 5, 2006	$113,790.95
Cost	$99,054.00
Profit	$14,736.95

"When a stock (or commodity) advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force that has been restrained and breaks out. Water may be held back by a dam, but if it breaks through the dam, you would know that it would continue downward until it reached another dam, or some obstruction or resistance which would stop it. Therefore, it is very important to watch old levels of stocks. The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce a larger movement than if it only accumulated during a short period of time" -W.D.Gann

When crude oil broke the dam after many years, the price accelerated and rose dramatically. The move may not be over.

Dam # 1 has broken. The next dam to break is dam # 2. The ultimate break will occur at dam #3. That will be an explosion heard around the World. When a dam breaks and the water shoots out, the water does not return to the break to see if there really is a break. I wonder if this will hold true for the break in the gold dams.

Stay Well,

January 7, 2006
Ron Rosen

email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

Tee charts reproduced courtesy of The Delta Society International.

321gold Inc