THE MICIK MARKET LETTER
Gold-Scare ‘Em Out and Wear ‘Em Out-Part II

Alan Micik snippet
Posted Sep 14, 2013

Early in September, MML observed for Subscribers that while the price of GDX exceeded the July closing high of $28.35 on 8/26/13 (when it closed at $30.41), the GDX Advance-Decline line (AD) failed to make a new high versus the July AD high.

Such divergences (or non-confirmations) between price and other indicators can often be significant indications of weakness or strength at price highs and lows. We noted on 9/1/13 that:

“MML’s experience has been that this poor showing in Goldie AD lines versus price is not a traditional characteristic of an early phase bull market. What is typical is an AD line that betters the recent highs on every price high for a move.

However, if the Major Miners (GDX & the HUI) AD lines can both exceed the July AD highs in September (or at a later date), and prices are making a new closing high, we will likely have a “confirmed” bull market in the Goldies.”

MML’s concern regarding this GDX price non-confirmation was that our proprietary cycle (PC) was forecasting a “low zone” for gold (and other metals) into mid-September.

In our 9/5/13 Update, MML identified the ideal “low-zone” days as September 13th, and September 16th for Subscribers.

“All of the above means that Gold and Silver are now likely in our PC down mode, and if correct, both markets should move lower into September 13th & September 16th based on our PC at a minimum. MML Stops on this view are now $1,413 and $24.42.

Should gold experience a “last minute” decline of substance into the above timeframe, our PC will (likely) generate an additional time zone for a low.”

It appears that our PC gold “low-zone” time forecast is on target. The magnitude of this decline (price) will determine whether our PC might identify another “low-zone,” or not, and MML will send that update to Subscribers as soon as we observe it.

Most PM Investors and Traders normally dislike declining PM prices. However, such “low-zones” provide ideal Investor and Trader entry points once our PC concludes, and that is what we provide for Subscribers.

In our 9/8/13 Update, MML noted:

“Our strategy remains the same: maintain all physical gold positions at this time without a “hedge.” Use the buying guidelines for GDX detailed in our 9/1/13 Update. MML will observe the next 6 sessions closely, and write accordingly. The 1976 Model appears intact (with some variances) unless our PC down shortly “kicks in” on gold.”

For 321Gold readers, our guidance is simple: don’t let this particular “low-zone” shake-out scare you out of any physical gold positions. Further down the road MML has “high zones” coming, and you want to be long-term invested for them. For now, however, Mr. Gold Market is in “shake-out” mode so patience will be required.

If you would like to review our current MML forecasts for gold and other markets, consider a subscription (details are listed below). In deference to our Subscribers, we have a 4 day calendar “Quiet Period” from all Subscriber Updates before any Posts.

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Sep 12, 2013
Al Micik
email: atmmail@sbcglobal.net

The Micik Market Letter (MML) covers opportunities in any market sector (U.S. Stocks, silver, etc.) when low-risk opportunities are identified for the investor and/or trader. Ongoing coverage is provided for gold and physical gold hedging strategies. Individual shares in any sector are generally not covered, but nor are they excluded. Unlike other market reports, we do not have regular “publication dates,” as the markets create the dates of action, and thus the communication to our subscribers. MML uses proprietary indicators (combined with technical analysis and contrary opinion) while applying 38+ years of market experience in stocks, options, and futures.

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