Market Update And Forecast
For June 13th, 2005
Stock Market Direction
Dennis "The
Russian" Leontyev
dennis@themarkettraders.com
Jun 13, 2005
The month of June is known
for choppy directionless trading. This year is no exception.
After a decent rally in May, all major indexes are consolidating
or correcting slightly. This action, or lack of thereof, might
continue for a bit longer. NASDAQ has been pulling back to a
support level, while S&P is standing still, while waiting
for the 20-day moving average to catch up with price. There are
no signs of a major top, and therefore any pull back from current
levels (if it happens) will most likely turn out to be a buying
opportunity. 1175-1180 represents an important support
zone for the S&P 500, while 1190 is a minor support, which
managed to hold over the last several days. Once again
there is no clear resistance other that last week's high.
SPX Daily:
The above chart illustrates
how S&P 500 is consolidating above 20-day moving average
and a trend line connecting swing highs and lows over the last
three months.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has also entered
a consolidation phase. I suspect that it might stay in a range
bound environment similar to the one we have experienced in February
of this year. Bulls would certainly like to see NASDAQ's relative
strength, which was present during the rally, but is showing
signs of dissipating over the last few days.
Overall I expect larger swings
due to the fact that the coming week will be influenced by options
expiration forces, but I will be surprised if the market finds
a trend for longer than a couple of days. It is a type of environment
when what looks like a breakdown is in reality a buying opportunity,
and what looks like a break out is in reality a selling opportunity.
NDX Daily:
Today's Focus
My first recommendation for
this week is for Newmont Mining (NEM). Newmont, and gold
stocks in general, is tracing out a bottoming pattern. The chart
below shows a reverse head and shoulders formation, and although
the neck like is not broken yet, internal indicators suggest
that there is a high probability of this happening in a near
future. Gold stocks to gold futures ratio has reached a buy level
at the end of May, which historically led to explosive moves
to the upside even during bear markets in Gold shares.
NEM Daily:
We have increased allocations
to Gold stocks for our long-term investors portfolios a couple
of weeks ago. This idea is for short-term traders.
Please visit Dennis at www.themarkettraders.com
for the entry and exit positions that Dennis is recommending
for this trade and others.
HAVE A PROFITABLE DAY!
Dennis Leontyev
email: dennis@themarkettraders.com
website: www.themarkettraders.com
Dennis "The
Russian" Leontyev first came to America in 1990 from St.
Petersburg Russian with a degree in finance. He is an expert in
option strategies, tradng the indexes, the currencies, at hedging
risk with market neutral strategies and exotic option spreads,
and timing the market for sudden key reversals. In 2002, the hedge
fund that he managed was one of the top 5% performing funds in
the world. Dennis shares his views several times during the week,
with a monthly overview of the economy and the current trades
that he is considering.
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