 Special SKI Report #131
Gold Stock Update
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX
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Written Dec 29, 2013
Published Dec 30, 2013
Current USERX price = 5.95, Up 22 cents (3.8%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves.
New Material
The last gold stock SKI Report, written on Sunday 12/08/13, described how the gold stocks (USERX) had initiated another Armageddon-decline period as of the master 92-96 index’s sell signal on 11/14/13 at USERX 6.62. The decline had reached USERX 5.73 and a continuing decline was expected over weeks.
Since that time, the gold stocks have been flat to lower for two weeks into a new multi-year low of USERX 5.70 one week ago (on 12/20/13). Gold declined $35 into 12/20/13, but has held above its June 2013 low of $1179.40. And during the past week, the gold stocks and gold have rebounded a few percent.
The rebound during the past week has taken the gold stocks up into the first resistance index, the 16-20 index (comparing the current price to the prices from 16-20 trading days earlier). The gold stocks have also risen above the chart downtrend line that connects the highs from the 10/28/13 high at USERX 6.62.
For SKI, the first sign of an end to this Armageddon period requires a rise to generate a 16-20 index sell signal. Such a signal would be first resistance, but if the index signal generates, that’s the first index sign that a low “MAY” be forming. If the 16-20 index sell signal generates, prices will either: (1) Decline to a new 16-20 index buy signal for the potential low, or (2) Continue to rise to the next resistance, a 35-39 index signal (above the prices from 35-39 trading days earlier). In other words, if the index signal generates, there should be support below the market on a decline to a 16-20 index buy signal. Or prices would just rise over several weeks into the next resistance. Yes, that is not predictive, but the index signal would provide the first sign/possibility that this multi-year decline has ended. It is within 1-2 trading days of executing.
Best Wishes for a Happy New Year, Jeff
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum and a managed gold futures program. The precious metals are in a very long-term (decade+) up-trend but are the most precarious, volatile, and psychologically difficult market in the world (in my opinion). That's the way it's always been.
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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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