Special SKI Report #294
Gold Stock Top? Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Dec 25, 2023
Published Dec 26, 2023 Current USERX price = 10.04, Up 1.01 cents (11.1%) since the last report one months ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
In the last public update, I expressed long-term bullishness. The important news is that SKI went to a Double Buy. The 16-20 index (ON the Path of Trades) generated a buy signal on 11/10/23 and executed that buy on 11/13/23 day at 8.32. That buy was expected to yield a second Double Buy signal via the 35-39 index into 11/21/23 at 8.96. I had some further resistance on a rise to the 92-96 index.
The rise to a 92-96 index was just barely avoided when the gold stocks rose for an extended 6 consecutive days on 12/01/23. The rise is supposed to historically (80+% probability) give a lift to the 92-96 index that typically carries to the 17th-21st trading day from the 11/21/23 35-39 index’s buy signal into the 92-96 index’s “buy” signal (sell).
The sell signal here is the result of “timing” the 35-39 index’s buy signal and several other factors. The 92-96 index executed its resistance “buy” signal on 12/18/23 with resistance at 9.74. Such clusters of highs would have been best served towards the end of that time cluster at 20-21 trading days. The gold stocks DID go above the range of the high on this past Friday (12/22/23) as the time factor went to Day 22. But this is within just 1 day off the top and SKI can be off by a few days.
Moreover, the 221 index generated a “buy” signal on this past Friday as prices rose above and beyond that indicator. This isn’t unusual. It’s either a long-term rise or a top. A 221 indicator sell signal would signal a further decline via its sell signal. Eventually, the USERX indicators could decline to be highly long-term bullish with new index buy signals.
A decline on Tuesday (12/26/23) would also pave the road for an ample correction. A decline to form a trading day “1 Up and 2 day down” would yield a bearish run pattern and would be expected at a high on Friday.
The MACD, slow Stochastics, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) would start to form a negative/bearish divergence pattern if prices declined. Those indicators would form lower highs from 12/01/23 even as prices made new high on this past Friday.
The situation is supposed to be simple to report but obviously isn’t 100% perfect. My sons are in cash having sold (my direction) to sell 25% on days 18-21 (last Monday through Thursday) to take about an 18% profit from the buy signal on 11/13/23.
Best holiday wishes, Jeffrey M. Kern Ph.D.
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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