 Special SKI Report #280
Bullish Set-Up Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Dec 4, 2022
Published Dec 5, 2022 Current USERX price = 9.99, Up 39 cents (4.1%) since the last report 3 weeks ago. Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
The last SKI Report, written on 11/13/22, described how the gold stocks had completed a “final thrust down” for (at least) a major intermediate-term low. But in the short-term time frame, the surge higher had executed a 2nd resistance 35-39 index buy signal on Friday (11/11/22) and had reached right into the 3rd resistance 92-96 index at USERX 9.60. To set-up a true SKI bull market, USERX needed to get above the 92-96 index that was declining. Here again, is the chart from 3 weeks ago with USERX shown as the black dots, the 92-96 index as the green line, and the 35-39 index as the red line. Now, if you look at the current chart, USERX then declined for 4 days to 9.20. But since the 92-96 index green line was DECLINING, USERX was above the green line. The 92-96 index executed its buy signal at a low on 11/17/22 at 9.20: see here. The gold stocks then surged higher for 2 days to a new high on 11/23/22 and then plunged for 2 trading days back to USERX 9.18 on 11/28/22, but that decline only hit/touched the red 35-39 index line. It did not activate a sell-stop 35-39 or 92-96 index sell signal. Last week’s rise to a new high on this past Friday, has almost reached the next upside target area of USERX 10.00-10.12 (the 8/10/22 high). The intermediate-term trend remains bullish as SKI remains on its 35-39 index buy signal. There is one opportunity for SKI to become longer-term bullish via a true 92-96 index bull market. During the next 2-4 weeks, USERX would need to decline to below the green 92-96 index line to stop-out Mechanical SKI. See how that green index line is rising to the 8/10/22 high of 10.12? With the current price of USERX 9.99, a decline to below the 92-96 index and then a quick rise back above it (as that green index line DECLINES), marks the large majority of 100+% rises (ala 2020, 2016, etc., back to 1974). If the gold stocks don’t yield the SKI bull market, the next upside resistance is from the faded dark purple 221 index. That index’s back prices are declining to the 1/28/22 low at USERX 10.55-10.91 in 2 weeks. A hit/touch of the 221 index at that Price X Time represents resistance. Let’s get a bull after 2.5 years (smile)… Best Wishes, Jeff If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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