Special SKI Report #291
Gold Stock Update Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Aug 20, 2023
Published Aug 21, 2023 Current USERX price = 8.92, Down 50 cents (5.5%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
It’s been 6 weeks since I was able to provide evidence for the gold stocks and gold,
see here,
as I’ve had medical issues. The July 9th, 2023 report generated a new master 92-96 index buy signal for USERX (the best signal out there for gold stocks and gold). And the 92-96 index would need to ride to new highs around the next month, or, the 92-96 index would generate a sell signal.
The response was a powerful rise on 7/10/23 as the index bought, executing its buy signal. USERX rose to 9.69 (2.6%) and the HUI rose 2%. The 92-96 index buy signal was instantly followed by another master buy signal via the 221 index (218-222 days index). That behavior would likely be followed by a surprising new rise.
And then USERX rose to 10.27 on 7/13/23 for a 6 percent gain. The rise should have continued, but then the rally failed after about 20 business days. Therefore, the 92-96 index sold and USERX has continued to go down.
Now, it’s typical for the gold stocks to just go down. But the 221 index is quite unusual based upon decades of gold trading. We could actually get a decline that could sell the 221 index near its 2022 USERX low. And then re-buy it! In fact, you might even joke that if the 221 index quickly sells and then buys, that it will make new all time gold highs. You can calculate it by looking at the 218-222 index, but I do the math for you.
Best wishes, Jeff If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
321gold Ltd
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