 Special SKI Report #299
SKI Update
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Saturday Aug 17, 2024
Published Aug 19, 2024
Gold Price: 2,507.70
USERX Price: 12.34
Hui Price: 312.09
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves.
New Material
I just returned home this week from the hospital. I'm surely not 100 percent myself, but i wanted to do an update.
This has been a difficult period of time for the gold stocks because they don't make higher highs, but also don't collapse to make lower lows. The following is what I have come up with after reviewing weeks of gold stock indices. I remain long for the following reasons:
7/9/2024 USERX's price was 11.90. I am not sure if this is a sell or a buy signal (16-20 index) because the indices contain mixed signals which are not easy to interpret. Signals can be buys or sells depending upon whether the 16-20 index is viewed as contrarian or non contrarian. In this case, the 16-20 index buy signal can be accurate.
7/18/2024 USERX's index price was 12.28. The 660--664 gave a buy signal, however this signal is also not clear if it is a sell or a buy. The 16-20 index remains the same on its unclear buy signal.
8/6/2024 USERX's price was 11.41 The 16-20 index is on a buy, however not sure if its an actual sell because some of the indices are xx'd out and the xxing out is quite complicated.
Therefore, all of the indices are uncertain and I remain on the overall buy signals from many months ago. Is it likely that we will get a definitive turn here?
Best wishes, Jeff
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
321gold Ltd
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