 Special SKI Report #8:
Happy Birthday to the True
Bull!
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX
| historicals
written Wednesday, August 9th, 2006
Posted (eventually) on Saturday, August 12th owing to the fact
that the 'numero uno' 321gold webmistress has run away to Paradise.
SKI Special Report #8
I have been using my unique
SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals'
market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to
mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website
since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free
updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold,
since its inception approximately five years ago. SKI is a timing
service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market
timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done
for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!
The SKI indices contain short-term
(16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days),
and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive
description of these mathematical indices and their history is
found at http://www.skigoldstocks.com/about.php.
Although I use USERX for analyses,
the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals'
market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my
subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual
issues on our Forum.
It's been exactly a year since
I wrote on 321gold and elsewhere that a true gold bull market
(as defined by the SKI indices' master 92-96 index buy signal)
was beginning on August 9th, 2005. I've reprinted the major portions
of the Update that I wrote at that time. I hope that you'll enjoy
reading it as much as I have, particularly in reading all the
predictions and directions that came true but that I (and probably
you too) didn't adhere to!
SKI Bull Market Update 08/05/05
Last weekend I wrote
that the next weekend's Update (this one) should be the BIG ONE.
At least I got that correct. Mark Tuesday 8/9/05 as the day
that SKI goes to the long-term bull market side. The rare
event that I spoke of a month ago appears to be occurring. I've
waited for 20 years and I am anxious. The master 92-96 index
will be buying on Tuesday's close on the rare 92-96 index buy
signal that is on the Path and NOT XXed Out UNLESS (here's the
unlikely caveat) the gold stocks (USERX, the gold mutual fund)
plunge 6% on Monday 8/8/05 to below USERX 7.65. If that unexpected
plunge happens, say hello to patience. The buy signal is going
to be generated on Monday and SKI will be risking his life-time
monies starting on Tuesday's close.
Please remember that SKI signals
mark critical points. And they do it beautifully. I must write
that it IS still possible that last Wednesday's spike into the
92-96 index at 8.29 could have marked a massive high. That run
pattern of 3 Down and 5 Up marks the high at 8.29. BUT THAT RUN
PATTERN HIGH CAN BE OFFSET BY AN ENSUING 4 OR MORE DAYS DOWN.
Please go your nearest gold sanctuary and pray for 2 more days
down of any size. Two more days down into the buy signal will
arrest my fears that I will be buying near a major high. If we
get 2 more down days and the buy signal: BUY with as much certainly
as I can have.
Assuming that the signal is
generated, what does that mean for other financial assets? A
year ago I vehemently wrote to sell real estate and everything
on the triple sell signal. I did. I am worried that this 92-96
index buy signal will auger for a continuing rise in real estate
and that I have sold everything except for my home. But I've
also learned that inter-market relationships are temporary and
unpredictable. Interest rates used to rise with rising gold stock
prices, but that relationship has fallen apart this decade. The
dollar has risen for months but the gold stocks have also risen.
I recommend that you don't use this gold stock buy signal to
project other markets. I am still expecting rising interest rates
and a falling real estate market. I'm also guessing that the
stock market won't fall apart while the gold stocks are rising,
but that the stock market also won't be exploding upwards with
the gold stocks.
I'd love to be able to buy
and then go into a stupor for several months, only to be awakened
by a 92-96 sell signal. I'd want to avoid watching the markets.
Adopt a buying strategy that fits your personality and that you
can adhere to based upon what you know of your own emotions.
Do not buy more than you can afford: Do not allow yourself
to sell on a decline that doesn't generate a 92-96 index sell
signal.
I have been waiting for this
signal for 20 years. Such signals always occur, we just don't
know how long we have to wait. And I promise (100%) that if this
signal occurs and the rise ensues, that the market will decline
into a sell signal in the future and that the gold stocks will
go through a terrible decline. Just not for the next many months.
Finally, should I tell my wife that I am going to risk nearly
everything we have on this signal? She'll probably say, "Jeff,
you've been saying that it'll happen for 20 years. You've made
lots of money doing this, but you always end up disappointed."
I respond with, "Rare events rarely happen, but they eventually
do. I've devoted all these years to this possibility and we are
going to risk everything except for our home and retirement accounts
(that can't buy gold stocks and that earn their 6%; I set them
up this way so that I cannot risk the retirement monies in such
a volatile and narrow area)."
I've been writing these Updates
for 5 years now. This is the signal that I've been waiting for.
Thousands of people are on the email list and even more are readers.
Please put me in suspended animation after I buy so that I don't
have to endure the pain/euphoria of watching. Just another day
or two to wait. SKI's going to be a gigantic but anxious bull?
I can't believe it, but that's the way it is.
Simple translation of this Update: Buy gold stocks on Tuesday's
close IF prices don't plunge 6% on Monday. Then sell on a 92-96
index sell or at a 100%+ profit. END OF UPDATE
Postscript Birthday/Anniversary
Fun: The gold stocks
declined that Monday and Tuesday in August 2005 to complete 4
straight days down directly into the great buy signal and then
the SKI bull commenced! As of this anniversary/birthday, prices
have now risen slightly more than 100% in the past year, as measured
by the gold mutual fund, USERX. The index bought at USERX 8.07
and still has not sold, with yesterday's closing price at 16.42
for a gain of 103%. Declines of 10% or more into index signals
have marked every bottom in the last year. Interest rates have
risen, real estate has softened, and the stock market hasn't
crashed.
I was supposed to go into suspended
animation and sell only if there was a 92-96 index sell signal
or at a 100%+ profit. We reached the 100% profit mark on April
19th, 2006 and I did sell all of my leverage, but I've bought
and sold so many times that I have NOT equaled the mechanical
SKI indices' 103% long-term capital gain! And USERX has been
the number one performing precious metals' index/ mutual fund
in the past year. If the bull market continues, USERX should
continue to outperform other indices; but when the bull dies,
USERX will fall faster than anything else.
Unlike the XAU and the HUI
indices, USERX has recently moved above its July 2006 high. As
long as the master 92-96 index remains on its buy signal, the
bull lives according to SKI. Prices touched that index on the
day of the low on June 13th 2006 but did not sell the index.
IN SEVERAL WEEKS THE 92-96 INDEX BACK PRICES WILL RISE TO USERX
16.36 (current price = 16.42). Although the gold stocks have
been volatile for months, I'm now wondering whether USERX will
now remain flat for weeks and then fall a little to touch the
92-96 index. In my view, that will mark the critical moment to
the day for the next year: the 92-96 index will either sell or
the market will explode upwards. If the 92-96 index remains on
its buy signal, I'll have to write that we should go into suspended
animation for another year and expect another 100%+ rise. And
then I can write another happy birthday/anniversary report on
August 9th, 2007!
I'll write another Report for
321gold in a few weeks (hopefully after the 92-96 index touch
and the rise) or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription.
Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer
if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my
website www.skigoldstocks.com
for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or
more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent
intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price. And if
you remember, I don't want a subscription cost to deter "the
small investor" or "the person with special circumstances"
from subscribing/profiting. Seriously, if the above applies,
write to me at jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Best wishes, Jeff
08/09/06
***
 SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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