Special SKI Report #290
Gold Stock Update Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jul 9, 2023
Published Jul 10, 2023 Current USERX price = 9.44, Down 40 cents (4.1%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
After spending 2+ weeks in the hospital and leaving with a diagnosis of Stage 4 Esophageal Cancer, you can understand that my energy and time are limited in writing this Report. Thoughts/Prayers are welcomed, but please avoid emailing me.
The last
SKI Report,
described how the gold stocks (USERX) had just risen to hit/touch the first resistance 16-20 index at USERX 9.84. The Regular SKI indices were approaching resistance and augured for a subsequent decline. The long-term indices were more complicated and could not yet be anticipated. The important 221 index would soon generate a sell signal unless the gold stocks rose over the next week+. And then that index’s back prices would begin the final 2022 plunge down. Therefore, that index could easily sell soon and then bullishly re-buy near a significant low. Meanwhile, the long-term 884 index (that buys on declines) was in the process of rising, making it likely to generate a buy signal in a few weeks. Since the index is contrarian, the gold stocks almost always decline into such buy signals.
The discovery of my cancer was completely unexpected, but the gold stocks have largely adhered to the prognostications/probabilities from that 6/19/23 Report.
The decline into last weekend generated the 221 index’s sell signal and last week’s decline generated the 884 index’s buy signal. Remember from above that the 884 index is a contrarian index that buys on decline. The combination of those 2 index signals isn’t particularly clear because the buy signal came just AFTER the sell signal, “allowing for” the gold stocks to break below the buy signal.
USERX has just held up enough to generate a new 92-96 index buy signal (by staying above the prices from 92-96 trading days ago). AND it is very close to generating a re-buy for the 221 index (by staying above the prices from 218-222 trading days ago). New master 92-96 and 221 index buy signals are a positive, if for no other reason than they provide objective SKI sell-stops for folks wanting to initiate new long positions in the gold (and silver) stock sector. In fact, during the next approximate month, USERX needs to rise to challenge its 2023 high (!) in order to avoid generating a 92-96 index sell-stop sell signal. We’ve been in cash for almost 2 months now and while SKIers are now “allowed” to buy due to the presence of an objective sell-stop, Jeff’s illness will likely limit my personal risk-taking….
Best wishes, Jeff If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
321gold Ltd
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