 Special SKI Report #289
Gold Stock Update Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jun 18, 2023
Published Jun 20, 2023 Current USERX price = 9.84, Up 23 cents (2.4%) since the last report 3 weeks ago. Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
The last SKI Report, written on 5/28/23, concluded thatthe regular SKI indices had signaled that the gold stocks had just entered a new SKI-phase via the prior week’s 35-39 and 92-96 index signals. The sell signal was Mechanical SKI’s safety sell-stop, but since index signals mark technical points, it WAS absolutely possible that the signal marked a LOW. Essentially, 5/25/23 needed to have been a low and the gold stocks needed to rise during the next week (the stronger, the better). The long-term SKI indices remained on the 221 index’s buy signal and that index wouldn’t sell without a decline to below USERX $9.00. The contrarian 884 index would only generate a new buy signal if USERX declined to well below USERX $9. 5/25/23, at USERX 9.58, HAS been the low-to-date, but the rise from that low has been weak. After the prior public Update, USERX rose on 5/30/23, 5/31/23, and 6/01/23 to form yet another meaningful run pattern. The 4 Down (into USERX 9.58) and 4 Up (into USERX 9.93) run pattern has an 88% historical probability (14 of 16 occurrences since 1974) of marking a low AND/OR a high. Time is expiring on this attempted rise. After those 35-39 and 92-96 indices’ sell signals, the first resistance occurs on a rise to the 16-20 index. On this past Friday (6/16/23), USERX began to hit/touch that index when it closed at 9.84. The index’s back prices from 16-20 trading days earlier were at 9.93, 9.98, 9.96, 9.92, and 9.73. We do not “know” (i.e., 100%) if the rise will maintain for another 2-5 trading days to actually generate that first resistance 16-20 index sell signal. If that occurs, and that is the only index signal, a subsequent decline would yield a 16-20 index buy signal (the 16-20 index is contrarian, selling on rises and buying on declines). A continuing rise could also generate a second resistance 92-96 index XXed Out “buy” signal. That index’s back prices are DECLINING to include 10.29, 10.49, 10.24, 9.91, and 9.82 on Tuesday (6/20/23). The XXing Out of the buy signal is due to the prior Double Sell between the 25-29 and 92-96 indices and provides an approximate 80% historical probability of marking a high. The 92-96 index signal would take at least 4-5 trading days to generate. As always, execution occurs 1 trading day after the signal generates. Hence, the Regular SKI indices are approaching resistance and augur for a subsequent decline. The long-term indices are more complicated and cannot yet be anticipated. The 221 index remains on its 5/08/23 buy signal at USERX 10.85 that marked an exact high. Its back prices are currently at 9.65, 9.54, 9.36, 9.74, and 9.71. They are RISING to the 8/10/2022 high of 9.95-10.12 over the next 5-6 trading days. Therefore, this important index will soon generate a sell signal unless the gold stocks rise over the next week+. And then those back prices will begin the final 2022 plunge down. Therefore, the index may sell and then bullishly re-buy near a significant low if the 2022 lows hold. And lastly, the long-term 884 index (that buys on declines) is RISING, making it likely to generate a buy signal in about 2 weeks. Since the index is contrarian, the gold stocks almost always decline into such buy signals. But we’ll have to see the pattern that develops between the 221 and 884 indices. Best wishes, Jeff If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2024 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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