Special SKI Report #298
Gold Stock Update Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday May 12, 2024
Published May 13, 2024
Current USERX price = 11.46, Up 53 cents (4.9%) since the last report 4 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material The last public presentation was on Sunday, 4/07/24 when USERX closed on Friday at 10.93. I continued to hold long but questioned myself for not having sold on the 7-day rise to 10.76. That was when USERX also executed its new 443 index buy signal (440-444 trading days) on 4/02/24 and on 4/04/24 when it executed a new 221 (218-222) its buy signal at 10.76. That presentation concluded with “We’re looking for another rise or finally some signal that the rise from 2/27/24, 2/28/24, and 2/29/24 had finally given way”. There were two more index signals to shoot for: The 660-664 and 881-885 indices. “Those signals change each day but are in the 11.65-12.22 and the 12.98-13.98 ranges for this next week”.
USERX has continued to meander higher during this past month. Each time there was some little indication of a top, I became concerned about it, but continued to just hold long as it broke through each time. For example, the 16-20 index bought for the HUI on 5/03/24 at 260.78 and immediately rose last week to a bare new high at 273.37. That 16-20 index index sold on Friday, so there is more concern.
Furthermore that 221 index, which I had mentioned a month ago as a target, has almost generated a buy signal. That concern will be reached this week, but I’ll leave that for SKIers and a sell-stop hasn’t been reached. There’s also the 881-885 index above.
A third and final concern will be the USERX run pattern if USERX closes lower on Monday (5/13/24). USERX has been unique because its “worm-like” run pattern has given a 1 day Up and 2 days Down twice this week. It’s at a new high to negate that run pattern, but if it turns down on Monday we’ll have 3 consecutive such 1 Down and 2 Up runs.
Such run patterns have a 13 out of 13 chance of turning significantly (major) bearish during the history of USERX (i.e., 15,570 trading days to date from 1974) IF Monday closes lower and USERX does not climb above the new high on Friday at 11.46. Again, the run pattern major top would still be negated if USERX closes down on Monday but then closes above 11.46.
That’s enough worries for today.
Best wishes, Jeff
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved. 321gold Ltd
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