 ChartWorks
U.S. Dollar - Quick Note
Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
December 13, 2004
Now that we have the upside reversal in the US Dollar Index (82.60)
it is time to talk about the characteristics we can anticipate
going forward. The initial rally should last four to six days,
kiss the 20-day exponential moving average and bring the RSI(14)
up to 52 +/- 3 points. Today, Friday December 10th, is day four
in the rally, prices are above the 20-day ema and the RSI is
at 47.50. Look for a more choppy trading pattern over the next
few weeks.
If prices can manage to close
above the standard deviation band (20ma, 2%) within the next
two weeks then the likelihood of prices making a new low in the
coming months is minimal. An upper target of 90.50 is quite possible
by the summer.
However, a rally which is capped
at the band will most likely result in a new low within the next
8 to 11 weeks before a sustainable rally can occur.
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
E-mail bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
Website: www.institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS - DECEMBER 10, 2004
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