 My tribute to
Occam
Craig Harris
March 20, 2006
Occam's Razor: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
With everything going on lately I've been struggling to explain
things to myself and do it in the simplest way possible.
Today I'm going
to illustrate how I use Occam's razor principle which I have
discussed before.
The fact is, I use that more and more in my trading as the years
go by and it keeps working more better and more better.
"We look
forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our
job. That's what I'm telling you." -George W. Bush, Gulfport,
Miss., Sept. 20, 2005
In other words,
I don't even want to know about the details. Details, schmetails.
Corn crop forecast this month... don't care. Schmeetail. I want
to know about the one or two important things that are going
to drive all other things and that's it. I want to keep it simple.
I mean; I may know about the details and read about the details
for entertainment... but I'm with Occam. Simple.
"I know
the human being and fish can coexist peacefully." George
W. Bush-Saginaw, Mich., Sept. 29, 2000
Simple.
So, here is
how that theory is applied in practice in a real life example.
This weekend
I happened to catch the French riots on CNN. As baby cakes was
saying goodbye to the CNN reporter in France, she mentioned TIME,
France. So that got me thinking.
It got me thinking,
why is Time Magazine in France? Is it that Time magazine is so
much better than all the other news magazines that it has just
crowded out all the other competition? Maybe. That gets to be
a complicated thought process though. There are a bunch of assumptions
and counter assumptions involved and it just gets to be a big
messy polynomial.
So here's an
alternative explanation that is simple. It's the Occam's razor
explanation.
The USA at
this time enjoys the worlds reserve currency... and increasingly,
they have been creating so much money (debt) that the guy who
is now the head of the US central bank joked openly about dropping
it out of helicopters when asked if he was worried about deflation.
Well, as we
all watch the US debt balloon soon to nine trillion dollars,
we realize that they already ARE dropping it out of helicopters,
they just won't admit that and never will. Ever.
"To see
what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle."
-- George Orwell, 1946
Simple.
One of the
most basic side effects of this helicopter money drop is that
it flows out as it drops... it spreads out... to Time Magazine
so it can go to France... for the GAP so it can go to Zimbabwe...
for McDonalds so it can go to New Delhi... for Starbucks... so
they can go to Brazil... For Chevron so the USS Condoleezza Rice
(since renamed because it was embarrassing) can sail the globe.
This is all very simple. Simple to think about and simple to
understand.
So that's the
Occam's razor explanation. The corporations are getting hit with
so much helicopter money that they can go everywhere...and they
have been doing so... which is why all the corporations love
these guys and it is increasingly hard to discern the government
from these guys as the former US Army Chief of Staff goes to
sit on the board of Northrop Grumman and the Vice President who
used to run Halliburton gives out a no bid contract for 385 billion
dollars to build detention centers in the US... .which is why
they had the merger in the first place... which is why the middle
class is evaporating and will continue to do so at an accelerating
rate... . and why every man woman and child in the US now owes
$30,000 on behalf of the Government... which is why Time Magazine
is in France in the first place...they got your $30,000...man
this is all so easy... Which is why Lenin said:
"Fascism
is capitalism in decay", - Nikolai Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
and also quite
coherently why Mussolini said:
"Fascism
is the merger between the state and corporations". - Italian
Prime Minister Benito Mussolini
Which is why
your expenses are going through the roof and the government says
there is no inflation and you wonder why. It's why your neighbor
lost his pension but the company is still in business. It's why
when you call DELL someone in India picks up the phone and asks
"please to be helping you". It's simple.
Whew... glad
to get that out in such simple terms. You see, this is all very
simple. Simple, simple, simple. Details, schmetails.
"Wow!
Brazil is big." -George W. Bush, after being shown a map
of Brazil by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brasilia,
Brazil, Nov. 6, 2005
So maybe that
means BUY SHARES... because if these guys are nice and if they
don't need another new house, or don't need to give your money
to a crony they just fired for fraud... they'll leave some money
left over for the shareholders... hopefully. In other words,
not like Enron. Enron illustrated the finite limits of fraud
and corruption.
You see the
thing is... it all clicks for me. The whole puzzle fits together
and it makes sense. Keeping it simple makes it also understandable.
The best explanation is the simplest one. Follow the money. There
are a lot of complicated things going on with simple explanations.
Occam explains a lot of things... everything really.
Occam explained
to me why Iraq was going to get attacked and I was on the record
with that a year before they got attacked and I got a bunch of
hate mail saying what an idiot I was for thinking that...
it explained
to me why there would ultimately be a civil war and mayhem in
Iraq even before the invasion and I'm on the record with that...
(took a little hate mail on that one too).
it explained
to me why in the future Iraq will be broken up into three separate
regions... .
it explained
why the cpi will never ever again show sustained inflation
it explained
why the market never crashed like I said it wouldn't and it explains
why Iran is about to get attacked...
and so on and
so on. Occam's Razor - use it. They (you know... them) want to
baffle you with the BS and make you feel like a weirdo for using
your own god given common sense. I want Occam's truth. Maybe
that will be my new religion. I'll turn off news from the ministry
of truth and worship the god of simple.
So anyway,
since I'm on a roll... I was thinking through the whole war scenario
since the reality of it is getting totally pushed on me now and
I'm having to deal with it... and it was kind of funny how I
was thinking about it so I wrote it all down.
I thought about
how when I was predicting the Iraq invasion, people were writing
in and talking about how this was brinkmanship yada yada yada...
barf barf... I thought how complicated some people make a simple
thing... I thought about how when I wrote "The FED's deflation
smokescreen" how people wrote in talking about how I didn't
know what I was talking about and there was going to be this
huge deflationary collapse... wwwwrrrrroooonnnngaroni. Occam.
So first I
started thinking about how it would probably be.
I mean we've
now been told as of last week by the President of the United
States that "force will be used if diplomacy fails."
So ok, I understand that... diplomacy fails... use force... eye
eye. Simple. It really could be none more simple. He prides himself
on being a plain talker. That's plain talk.
So then I think...
Diplomacy? Who is doing the diplomacy???
Bolton is doing
the diplomacy so there's a no brainer.
I want to use
Occam here... If I were in person I couldn't say it without breaking
out laughing because I was laughing when I thought it...
you see...
the guy who cites as his biggest accomplishment getting zionism
changed at the UN from racism to not racism, is now is the diplomat
with the muslims?? ... eye eye. Got it (trying not to laugh).
That is going
to work out really well. So it's all patently absurd as well
as patently simple. Diplomacy is going to fail. It's supposed
to fail because the policy is regime change in Iran and they
are SIMPLY implementing policy. Simple... Occam's razor. Simple.
Don't fall for the BS coming out of the merger. That's designed
to mix you up.
So with the
policy being regime change in Iran, and with the previous policy
having been regime change in Iraq... putting that policy implementation
together with what they are saying now... I'd go so far as to
say you don't even need to be a very good tea leaf reader at
this point to figure out what's going to happen.
"You cannot
simultaneously prevent and prepare for war" - Albert Einstein
"The United
States will, if necessary, act pre-emptively in exercising our
inherent right of self-defense. The United States will not resort
to force in all cases to pre-empt emerging threats. Our preference
is that nonmilitary actions succeed. And no country should ever
use pre-emptions as a pretext for aggression." -George W
Bush 3/06
Occam asks
a question. Who decides when a so called pre emptive attack is
a pretext and when it is aggression? Occam answers the question.
The Bush Doctrine of Pre emptive war is the catalyst for a lawless
world of endless wars. That should just be becoming apparent
although I've been saying it for 5 years now.
So anyway,
I'm digressing again but this Iran thing is like introductory
tea leaf reading where everyone is supposed to get an "a"
if they just read the book.
But how will
it happen? So that's what I was going through in my mind the
other day because in order to do what I do, I need to think through
this... as in through to the other side. I know I'm going to
start by flattening out and unwinding... I'm already in the process
of doing that... but what do I do during and after? What's that
going to feel like? Am I going to be able to get my orders in
even? I really want to have AC... and a phone would be good too.
I guess if I have power I'm ok.
I think I would
wake up one morning and turn on Mayor Bloomberg TV and see that
the S&P futures were locked limit down and crude oil and
distillate futures were all locked limit up. There would be green
night vision images on CNN and stock footage of Jets taking off
making a lot of noise and looking very professional. So right
there I will know what had happened. I think it would be an Israeli
led Strike on Iran, followed by some sort of retaliation which
might include some Iranian missiles going off at US ships, at
Israel and into US bases in Iraq.
I might be
seeing initial headlines like "Israeli led strike on Iranian
reactors said successful" and "US Carrier XYZ said
damaged by missile" and "pentagon reports tactical
nuclear weapons were used successfully with minimal collateral
damage" and there would be quite an exchange which would
most likely involve the US and Israel using "tactical"
nuclear weapons... some tactical some not so tactical... and
in the US press they'll be debating on FOX the size of a nuke
you can still call tactical... having "experts" on
paid by the government to tell you how big a nuclear bomb can
be and still be friendly.
Rumsfeld will
be on defending the use of tactical nukes and on CNN they'll
be showing engineering diagrams of tactical nuclear weapons in
between commercials for tampons and cheeze doodles... so I'll
be feeling like... "man we're having a nuclear war"...
or even just a "tactical nuclear war" (with the size
of tactical under debate in between commercials)...
crude oil at
that point will be $98 on it's way to $300 and there will be
gas shortages beginning. The government may put price controls
on energy related items. They may put limits on civilian use
and issue something like a "gas card". Like you'd have
to buy a card effectively ensuring people who already had a lot
of money could afford to buy gas. Down in Sunrise they'll be
selling counterfeit gas cards on the street corner. I have a
full tank of gas but nowhere I want to go because I will realize
that it is all going to have a very bad ending.
so on FOX they'll
be running a headline that "Israel was defending itself"
over and over and over and the US "assisted" when Iran
had the gall to retaliate for getting bombed... then during and
after that initial burst... Bernanke would be pushing the buy
button as he was printing that money (creating that debt) to
support the market and doing fairly well... (he doesn't even
have to report on it now) I mean the market is down maybe 7%
but hanging in there after three days... the USD is down maybe
5%... gold went to $600 but has backed off to $580...
so then Syria
gets involved, mostly by getting bombed into the stone age by
both the US and Israel after saying something threatening because
it was pre emption and not aggression... and it will be important
to remember that or you could find yourself thinking the wrong
way.
so then all
that lasts about three more days and then things seem surreally
normal after about a week... nothing at all from Russia and China
except a lot of articles and news denouncing the attack... and
the market recovers a little bit and everyone goes... whew...
...and what
everyone doesn't get at that point is that WWIII has started
and this is just the calm before the storm... so this is my window
to do things.
"The reason
we start a war is to fight a war, win a war, thereby causing
no more war!" -George W Bush - The first Presidential debate
because you
see... the rest of the world is still in total shock... going
holy %$#^ #$^$. I think we just saw two nuclear armed states
bombing a non nuclear armed state because they asserted that
the non nuclear state is pursuing those same weapons he's getting
bombed with and he might actually use them on someone if he had
them... unlike the US and Israel who are using them pre emptively!
"On the
chess board lies and hypocrisy do not survive long." --Emanuel
Lasker
So I play chess
and I know Putin plays chess and I'm wondering... what is he
thinking right now??? So at that point in my daydream I'm thinking
"now is when I want to flatten out and buy a non leveraged
position in comex gold futures and stand for delivery... then
I start imagining myself driving up to NY in the middle of a
gas shortage and war with my delivery certificates to get my
gold... and I get there and they say sorry this is no good...
some I isn't dotted or in other words, just some excuse backed
by the full authority of law... and they just say tough luck...
no gold. Sort of like a Zefco deal... sorry, your money is now
our money... didn't they tell you? sorry. Stand in line if you
want to try to get it back.
So then instead
of having all of my money I have this sheet of paper that says
I'm supposed to get some gold and it's no good and I lost all
my money. That's when I go for the closest shopping cart. Seriously...
that daydream convinced me, there's a good possibility a lot
of people are going to be hoarding at that point. I will... I
go to Costco and fill my house up with everything I might want
to eat for six months or so. I think I discussed that all pretty
well before... things you would and wouldn't want to do in a
situation like that.
So anyway,
that's my tribute to Occam and simplicity for today.
Craig Harris
321gold Inc
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