Gold Confiscation
Hydra 1.1
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Jul 2, 2004
As we head into Independence
Day weekend 2004, I have been amazed at the number of questions
I have received lately on gold confiscation. Apparently these
rumors are making the rounds again. Since this is on folks' minds,
I am updating my "The
Gold Confiscation Hydra" essay originally published
in March 2002. Liberate yourself from the bondage of the fear
of confiscation and declare independence from numismatic marketing
psy-ops!
While all things gold continue
to fascinate me, from the history of gold to mining gold to investing
in gold to using digital
gold for Information-Age transactions, there is one front
of gold inquiry that never fails to cause me consternation, sometimes
leaving my blood boiling. This thorny subject is the seemingly
perpetually dredged up specter of a future gold confiscation
in my beloved homeland, the United States of America.
Like the fabled Lernaean Hydra
of ancient Greek mythology, a fearsome abominable serpent-like
beast with nine vicious heads spewing venomous and lethal breath,
no matter how many times the gold confiscation ideas are challenged
and slain in public debate they keep respawning and rearing their
ugly heads.
The ancient Greek sages claimed
that Heracles (Hercules to the Romans and us) attempted to slay
this vile hellspawn in his Second Labor of Eurystheus to prevent
the Hydra from ravaging farms near Lerna in the Peloponnese.
Hercules confronted the terrible
monster and, throwing his legendary strength behind his mighty
war club, violently knocked one head of the Hydra clean off.
Unfortunately, our hero was dismayed to realize that every time
he severed a head from the demonic serpent, two new ones would
grow back in its place! Hercules, not one to crumble under adversity
even while locked in seemingly hopeless mortal combat, finally
realized that he could use red-hot firebrands from a nearby fire
to burn the Hydra's heads off and instantly cauterize the bloody
stumps of the necks, preventing more Hydra heads from bursting
forth.
The great warrior burned off
all of the Hydra's heads except for the last one, which he severed
and buried. Hercules later brilliantly used the dead Hydra's
noxious blood to smear on his own arrowheads to make chemical
missile weapons to launch at his future foes.
While a mere mortal like me
certainly cannot aspire to slay the Gold Confiscation Hydra like
the mighty hero Hercules, I would still like to offer my thoughts
on gold confiscation this week. Perhaps, should the gods smile
on me, I can help lop off a single head of the Gold Confiscation
Hydra to do my small part in vanquishing this bothersome beast.
I have been pondering gold
confiscation for a long time and, after careful study of both
sides' arguments and even the original 1933 gold laws, I have
come to the conclusion that the probability of such an event
happening again in the United States of America in the future
is incredibly low, probably less than a 1% chance. In a nutshell,
there are three primary reasons why I believe this to be the
case.
First, there are vast, vast
structural differences between the gold environment of 1933 and
today.
Second, confiscating gold again
would be the final coup de grace slaughtering the fragile US
dollar as thoroughly as if Hercules himself had shoved a burning
firebrand down its gaping throat.
Finally, the fearsome social
implications of a new gold confiscation attempt in our brave
new world make it a political suicide play for any future tyrant
of the dark ilk of socialist dictator Franklin Roosevelt.
Before I elaborate on these
three arguments, I would like to first address another controversial
issue surrounding gold confiscation. Where, oh where, when the
Hydra heads of gold confiscation begin spewing their venomous
words, do they first spawn?
Next time you see a debate
erupt on future gold confiscation, take the time to carefully
track it back to its original source, the proverbial spark that
kindled the fires of the current gold confiscation debate that
you are observing. In my experience, maybe 8 times out of 10,
if you track the Gold Confiscation Hydra's slimy trail back to
its dark subterranean den, you will find that it emerged from
a gold numismatics merchant.
Gold numismatics are simply
rare collectors' gold coins that trade at high premiums to their
intrinsic gold content value. Rare gold coins are beautiful to
behold and can be very good investments when demand for gold
rarities waxes ecstatic.
Coin dealers often love rare
gold coins because they are much more profitable to sell than
plain old gold bullion coins like the American Gold Eagle that
only trade at a small premium to the spot price of gold. The
disparate profit structure for gold merchants in selling rare
gold coins versus gold bullion coins is quite revealing and a
key piece to understanding the gold confiscation debate.
A gold merchant can sometimes
sell rare gold coins for 25%+
profit margins, a nice healthy markup. The cutthroat competition
in the much larger market for gold bullion coins, on the other
hand, often limits profit margins to 3% or so over the spot price
of gold. Now if you were a red-blooded capitalist gold merchant,
would you prefer to sell gold coins for a 25% profit or 3% profit?
Exactly. I would feel the same way if I fed my family by selling
gold coins.
Now there is certainly nothing
wrong with rare gold coins or the merchants who sell them. Rare
gold coins are wonderful for collectors of beautiful things.
I have friends with impeccable honor and integrity who sell rare
gold coins to gold collectors who traffic in beautiful things.
There is, however, a big problem when gold numismatics dealers
use blatant scare tactics as Machiavellian marketing tools.
They occasionally try to herd
naïve gold investors into very expensive, highly illiquid,
and subjectively valued rare gold coins by implying that there
is a high probability that Uncle Sam will break down their door,
conk them over the head with the butt of an MP5, duct tape them
and their family together, comb their house with a metal detector
to steal all their gold bullion coins, then throw them in prison
just for spite. Hogwash!
My company, Zeal
LLC, sells financial newsletters. If you asked me if I believe
whether the best source of financial information is the Wall
Street Journal, CNBC, or private investing newsletters, honestly
what do you think I would say? You got it. It doesn't mean that
I am right or wrong, just that I am biased because my heart and
passions are near and dear to this business. It is the same with
gold numismatics merchants. Is it any surprise that they cling
to and propagate confiscation theories that increase their profits
and provide better financial futures for their own families?
Anytime you hear a newsletter
publisher tell you that newsletters are the ultimate way to get
valuable financial information, or anytime you hear a rare gold
coin merchant tell you that rare gold coins are the best gold
investment because the Franklin Roosevelt Gestapo chose not to
bother with them in 1933, you should really take these assertions
with a heaping pile of salt. Do your own due diligence and be
cautious to believe anyone who has a direct financial interest
in getting you to subscribe to a particular worldview!
Now that the typical shadowy
subterranean origins of the Gold Confiscation Hydra have been
exposed to the unforgiving rays of sunlight, I would like to
briefly discuss the vast differences between the gold environment
in 1933 and today, the lethal chain of financial-world events
in a neo-gold confiscation that would ultimately shatter the
fragile fiat US dollar, and the enormously dangerous socio-political
implications of such a course of action by a future American
tyrant.
The general and gold environments
of 1933 were light years away from what we experience today.
In 1933, gold was legal-tender
currency in the United States of America. The dollar was literally
as good as gold as the US and many other European countries had
been on the gold standard for a century. If you possessed paper
dollar bills, you could present them to the US Treasury and demand
gold bullion. If you had a $20 bill (a lot of money back then),
you could exchange it for a $20 one-ounce-gold legal-tender United
States coin. In 1933 gold really was the coin of the realm and
was accepted everywhere as money.
Today, ever since US President
Richard Nixon tragically severed the final
link between gold and the dollar on August 15, 1971, there
is absolutely zero official or legal-tender relationship between
gold and the dollar. In fact, the US Treasury and the Federal
Reserve have spent hundreds of billions, possibly trillions of
fiat dollars over the last three decades, to attempt to prove
this very point to the international financial markets and American
populace that gold is no longer relevant in the modern world
of central banks.
Socialist pro-government economist
John Maynard Keynes' gold-is-a-barbaric-relic thesis has been
the rallying cry of the recent official campaign to fully decouple
gold from the national fiat-currency markets. And it has been
done.
In 1933, many American banks
kept gold in their vaults. If you had an account at a bank, you
could, in some cases, actually demand to withdraw gold instead
of paper dollars if you wished. As the Great Depression raged
untold multitudes of US banks were on the verge of failing. Dictator
Franklin Roosevelt, only one day after he was inaugurated as
President on Saturday March 4, 1933, broke his solemn campaign
promises to the American people and unilaterally shut down all
the banks in the United States by declaring a four-day "bank
holiday". A terrifying banking crisis descended on the nation.
Because gold was legal tender,
both American bank depositors and foreign investors could demand
to withdraw their accounts in gold bullion if the contractual
provisions of their particular account allowed this, and many
did. As people sensed trouble and began dumping their paper dollars
for US legal-tender gold coins, the mushrooming gold demand would
have contributed to further banking problems and possibly a systemic
US banking failure. In history when a country's banking system
totally collapses, the government falls soon after. The 1933
gold confiscation happened a month after the bank holiday and
was intimately related to the banking crisis.
Today, of course, US banks
don't keep gold in their vaults and no one can demand gold in
lieu of dollars if they want to cash out their accounts. While
a gold rush certainly could exacerbate a bank run in 1933, today
there is absolutely no link whatsoever between gold and commercial
banking. Gold demand and prices can soar today and still have
no direct effect on the solvency of the banks. Remember 1979?
Gold soared but the banking system didn't implode.
In 1933, gold was legal-tender
US currency because the US was on the Gold Standard, paper dollars
could be surrendered and gold bullion demanded at the US Treasury
and many banks, and the health of the fragile fractional-reserve
US banking system could be placed in mortal peril by rapid increases
in gold demand trends. In addition, back then a run on gold could
deplete the US Treasury and collapse the US dollar. All that
is impossible today because of the official decoupling of the
dollar from gold!
Today of course, the US government
and central banks around the world go to great pains to assure
us that gold is nothing but another garden-variety commodity,
like wheat, that has zero role as money in the modern fiat world.
While Franklin Roosevelt was
a dishonorable rogue and a thief who stole the future of many
Americans nine months before he almost doubled the gold price
by decree in his notorious dollar devaluation in 1934, we can
look back at history and fully understand why gold was the very
cornerstone of the US monetary and banking system at the time.
Today, there are no legal or
contractual links between gold and the US dollar, the Federal
Reserve, and US banks.
If some future American tyrant
even wanted to try and outdo Franklin Roosevelt to become America's
worst president in history by stealing gold from the American
people again, what on earth would his justification be this time
around? Even if the US financial system was collapsing and bank
runs were rampant, because there are now no links between gold
and the dollar there is no conceivable reason, real or contrived,
that would justify a new gold confiscation to the markets and
court of public opinion.
You may be thinking, yes, there
may be no possible way to justify a new gold confiscation in
today's post-Gold Standard world, but we are talking about the
federal government here, which is not known for acting rationally.
The government is not logical and not rational and it will do
whatever the heck it pleases regardless of whether it makes sense
or not. I agree with you completely that governments do not act
rationally but I have a counterpoint to add.
Even though governments perpetually
lie, cheat, and steal, there is one thing that virtually all
governments and bureaucrats have in common throughout history.
Almost without exception, they all want to stay in power and
ensure that nothing upsets the cozy status quo of the public
trough at which they happily feed like gluttonous parasites.
This brings us to my second reason why a future government gold
confiscation in the US is an extremely low-probability event
that will probably never happen.
If the US federal government
outlaws gold again and demands that Americans surrender their
gold coins under threat of fines or imprisonment, the US dollar
is toast. Over. Finished. Done. Gone. Out.
A fiat currency like the US
dollar is ultimately nothing more than a confidence game. If
you compare a $1 bill to a $100 bill, what makes the $100 bill
worth more? They weigh the same, are both printed on a few cents
worth of the same special paper, they look similar, they feel
the same, they take up the same space in your wallet, etc. A
$100 bill is only worth more than a $1 bill because you have
faith! You have confidence that it is so as do other people all
over the world. Intrinsically, there is no reason why a piece
of paper with $100 printed on it should be worth any more than
an almost identical piece of paper with $1 printed on it.
With no link to gold, the US
dollar is ultimately like Monopoly money. Its perceived value
is nothing but a concept, an ethereal idea like faith, that doesn't
exist in a physical sense but only in our minds. And, whether
the US government likes it or not, the world eagerly watches
the dollar gold price for any evidence that the US dollar is
in trouble due to waning confidence because of the massive inflation
in the US fiat-currency funny money.
If the US government tries
to call in private gold again, it will be the biggest shock to
national and international confidence in the US dollar that the
world could ever imagine. Many foreign investors, who we rely
upon to generously buy trillions of dollars worth of capital
investments in the States today to finance our gluttonous American
appetite for debt, would instantly have their faith shattered
to the very core when they heard the news that the US was confiscating
gold again.
Foreign investors invest in
the US partially because we have rock-solid Judeo-Christian laws
that protect the sacred rights to own private property, one of
the critical pillars of freedom. If the US government tries to
seize private property like gold in a big way, foreigners will
flee fast. Any country that violates the sanctity of private
property is not a good place to invest and is punished severely
by international markets.
Sophisticated global investors
controlling trillions of dollars would immediately realize that
serious trouble was afoot if a new US gold confiscation was announced.
Even though there is no gold standard for the dollar, they would
know that the great dollar confidence game had reached the end
of its rope if the US government was in such dire straits as
to confiscate private gold again. It would be a crystal clear
signal to the markets that an imminent dollar devaluation against
gold, the ultimate money for six thousand years of human history,
was hurtling down the pike like an unstoppable juggernaut.
Instantly, within minutes after
the announcement of a new US gold confiscation, the massive forex
markets, the largest on earth, would be deluged with investors
and governments from all over the world trying to frantically
dump their dollars before dollar confidence totally collapsed.
In this surreal environment, dollar supply would vastly overwhelm
dollar demand. Heck, there may not even be any dollar bids in
this chilling scenario!
The Gold Confiscation Hydra,
if unleashed from its hole by some crazy future American Administration,
would instantly signal to the world that the US dollar is going
down the tubes and the flagship reserve currency would quickly
plummet by 20%, 30%, maybe even 50% in a matter of days. It could
prove to be the greatest and most terrible day of financial carnage
ever witnessed in the history of the world!
It would not make a bit of
difference if a future gold confiscation was announced when gold
was trading at $300 or $3,000 per ounce. If a new gold confiscation
was announced tonight, there would be unprecedented US dollar
sell orders and the dollar would crash.
Since the US federal government
and Federal Reserve officially renounced gold in 1971, declaring
it to be nothing but another commodity like rice, a new government
grab for gold would annihilate the global dollar market as dollar
holders' crucial confidence and faith in the fiat US dollar with
no intrinsic value suddenly vanished. Without confidence, a confidence
game is doomed. The US dollar only has value because folks believe
it does, and if their beliefs are challenged or even confused
by a new government gold grab, a horrific overnight dollar crash
is virtually assured.
Now back to the goofy government
bureaucrats who may be tempted to resurrect the Gold Confiscation
Hydra. Because all governments and government officials like
their cushy jobs and power and want to perpetuate and grow the
parasitic system that pampers them, they will never dare to attempt
a monumental gamble that top US Treasury and Fed officials well
know would instantly slay global confidence in the US dollar.
If the dollar crashed that
rapidly, in a day or a few, the US government would probably
fall and anarchy would reign while a new government was formed
from the ashes. And that new government would not include the
old government that made the foolish decision to confiscate gold
that slaughtered the dollar! Because of the phenomenally strong
self-preservation instinct of government bureaucrats to maintain
the status quo, I believe there is a less than 1% probability
that they would ever intentionally kill the US dollar by recalling
gold and annihilating global confidence in the fragile fiat currency.
So far I have illuminated the
gold-numismatics-merchant shady origins of the recurring Gold
Confiscation Hydra scare rumors, discussed why there is no conceivable
reason that events like 1933 could transpire today under our
current financial system officially decoupled from gold, and
pondered how the fiat US dollar is a fragile global confidence
game that cannot be shaken by something as earth-shattering as
a new gold confiscation.
The final reason that a new
gold confiscation is not in the cards is the ugliest part of
this essay. Please allow me to be brutally honest, as the internal
US socio-political implications of a new gold confiscation are
horrifying.
Almost always when gold investors
discuss the Gold Confiscation Hydra, they fail to take the next
logical step and imagine what would actually happen in the US
if Tom Brokaw suddenly reported on the General Electric Nightly
News that all gold investors had two weeks to haul their gold
to their friendly-neighborhood Federal Reserve member bank and
surrender it for dull green pieces of fiat paper.
First, imagine that there are
100m investors in the United States today. Of that 100m, maybe
only 10% have ever even considered gold as an investment and
probably only 3% own physical gold. 3% of 100m investors is 3m
American investors who suddenly discover that they face serious
fines or imprisonment for their now grievous crime of owning
gold, which is paradoxically just another commodity according
to three decades of government propaganda.
Now I don't know about you,
but I work with gold investors every day and I know we are a
cantankerous lot. We believe in all these antiquated concepts
like freedom, the US Constitution, the sacred right to private
property, and that we actually have certain God-given inalienable
rights endowed by our Creator that no man or government can ever
take away. Strange eh? Wait, it gets even more interesting!
Gold investors are generally
very intelligent and very peaceful and exemplary citizens but
we strongly believe in the Second Amendment to the Constitution
of the United States of America and are heavily armed to protect
our families and property from violence and theft. If you took
any other cross section of America, you could scarcely find a
group that was more wary of government abuses of power than those
who have taken the time to study the incredibly deep subject
of gold, the political metal.
Of those 3m gold investors
who heard the new confiscation order on the news, I suspect that
maybe half would comply outright because they wanted to stay
out of trouble. That leaves 1.5m American gold investors who
own physical gold but are not interested in trading it in for
paper Federal Reserve Notes regardless of what Tom Brokaw said
the US government demanded.
Interestingly, even in the
much-more-trusting era of 1933 there were huge numbers of Americans
who simply ignored Franklin Roosevelt's illegal extra-Constitutional
request for citizens of the US to surrender their gold bullion.
In our infinitely more cynical environment of today when even
the Keynesian socialists don't trust the government, the gold
investors are the least likely of all investors to voluntarily
submit to such a ridiculous scheme.
Now all of a sudden the federal
government has a huge problem on its hands. It has ordered gold
to be surrendered but suspects that 1.5m Americans still possess
the dangerous metal. What does the government do next?
First of all, the government
has to track down who owns gold, an exceedingly difficult and
expensive task. Some coin dealers keep extensive records and
some don't. Some gold changes hands outside of coin dealers in
private sales between individuals. If the government really wants
to devote the time to searching for now contraband gold, it will
have to send people door-to-door to millions of suspected families
because the government won't know which ones chose not to comply.
Going door-to-door looking
for gold is hugely expensive, disruptive, dangerous, and politically
suicidal. If the government is crazy enough to do that, which
I think will never happen, it will have to choose between the
polite method or nasty method of going door-to-door.
If the government is in a charitable
mood during its new gold confiscation, it will simply send a
single government employee to politely knock on the door of a
suspected gold investor and ask him or her if they have any gold
to donate to Uncle Sam. The gold investor, since he or she already
ignored the gold confiscation order, will probably either say
that no they don't own gold therefore the government's records
are wrong, or that yes they owned gold in the past but they sold
it at a loss a few years earlier. Or they might only surrender
a token portion of their physical gold, a few coins out of a
hidden cache of a hundred gold coins to make the government agent
happy. A gold confiscation without teeth is meaningless, a charade.
But if the government chooses
the nasty method with teeth, which is far more likely if it is
in a surly enough mood to try a brazen stunt like a new gold
confiscation in the first place, all hell will break loose in
America.
Playing this deadly game, if
the Feds suspect a gold investor of not surrendering gold, they
will send in a jack-booted SWAT team of heavily-armed invaders
wearing black balaclavas to hide their identities from the very
American people who they have sworn to protect and serve.
To forcibly take down a gold
investor's house to search for contraband gold, each house would
probably demand a half-dozen elite agents or so in the entry
team and another half-dozen agents to seal the perimeter and
run support. They would kick down doors, throw in flash-bang
grenades, and generally try to intimidate recalcitrant gold investors
with an overwhelming display of government power. Because men
and funds are limited, they could not search all suspected gold
investors' houses at once but would have to do it slowly over
years because of logistical constraints.
In maybe 10% of these forced
entries in violation of the US Constitution, the federal agents
would encounter a stubborn gold investor who was not only heavily
armed but was prepared to defend his sacred private property
rights with lethal force. The Feds would kick down the door to
his home, a firefight would ensue, and of course the gold investor
would be shot dead by the superior arms, marksmanship, and numbers
of the Federal Gold Police.
But such atrocities could only
happen a few dozen times across the US before public outrage
grew red hot. Because the US government has spent three decades
brainwashing the average American into believing that gold is
nothing, that same average American will not be happy when a
Federal Gold Police SWAT team executes their church-going, city-council
member, businessman, and upstanding-member-of-society neighbor
and friend just because they had some curious beliefs that led
them to buy the garden-variety commodity of gold.
The very federal agents tasked
with doing the forcible entry searches for contraband gold would
soon become demoralized and refuse to keep doing them. They want
to hunt dangerous criminals like drug dealers and terrorists,
not little old otherwise law-abiding men who happen to have a
peculiar affinity for gold. Most policemen and federal agents
love America, their families, their freedom, and their honor
just as much as civilians. A new gold confiscation would rip
the federal agencies apart that were directly involved in the
dirty deeds of enforcing it.
At first the mainstream media
probably wouldn't cover these tragedies, but Internet coverage
on alternative media sources would spread like wildfire and would
ultimately force the issue into the limelight. Eventually, after
dozens or hundreds of otherwise innocent Americans who did nothing
more than refuse to give away their physical gold are murdered
by elite Federal Gestapo agents carrying machine guns, public
outrage will explode at the new police state and politicians'
heads will roll, maybe literally. The foolish bureaucrats who
ordered the gold confiscation fiasco will be run out of office
and forever disgraced, if not put on trial.
If you think for a second that
Americans won't care if a few dozen gold investors who refuse
to surrender their gold are slaughtered by the government, remember
the tragic federal sieges of Ruby Ridge and Waco. Both were cases
of the federal government horribly abusing lethal force and innocents
dying as a result, and the tragic consequences of these events
still reverberate strongly throughout the US government and the
American people alike many years after the atrocities. A new
gold confiscation would create a horrible and tragic situation
like the Ruby Ridge and Waco sieges multiplied a thousand times
over.
The American people may tolerate
the slow bleeding away of some of their freedoms over decades,
but they won't tolerate the wholesale violent slaughter of otherwise
upstanding citizens who simply won't comply with some crazy out-of-the
blue gold confiscation order. The United States government is
the servant and employee of the American people. Yes, Americans
will let the government get away with many abuses, but dangerous
lines certainly do exist which no representative-republic government
dares to cross. Forcibly stealing private gold in a gold-decoupled
world is one of them.
The bottom line on a future
gold confiscation is that the probability of such an event is
exceedingly low, probably less than 1%. And that 1% only exists
in a time of total financial collapse in the United States, complete
market Armageddon, in which there would be plenty of warning
as the US financial system went to hell in a hand basket for
months or years (think Japan) before the government, on the edge
of collapse, made a last ditch effort to grab gold and reestablish
a New Gold Standard to back a new gold dollar.
The Gold Confiscation Hydra
is almost always unleashed by gold numismatics merchants who
make their living by selling rare gold coins at much higher markups
than gold bullion coins. Because of the vast changes in the structural
US financial system officially decoupling it from gold since
1933, there is no defensible justification for a new gold confiscation
that would fly in the United States or international markets.
These same international markets, if the US government foolishly
tried to seize private gold again, would instantly recognize
a lethal structural problem in the US dollar and they would sell
it like it was the end of the world, crashing the US dollar by
maybe 50% in a matter of days.
As if the crash of the dollar
and subsequent dismantling of much of the federal government
for lack of operating funds was not enough of a deterrent for
future tyrants, a future gold confiscation would have to be completely
voluntary (in which case it would be meaningless) or else it
would rapidly degenerate into a series of dangerous house-to-house
invasions of which some would tragically turn lethal.
As the body count of otherwise
innocent American citizens mounted, general American public opinion
would explode in rage and demand an end to the killing for some
irrelevant "barbaric relic" like the commodity of gold.
After all, if the goofy gold investors want to own gold, the
American public will reason, just let the gold investors cling
to their delusions and own gold and stop the senseless slaughter
that is creating a police state and pushing the US towards anarchy.
A new gold confiscation in
the United States of America is so improbable as to not even
be worthy of consideration for gold investors.
While I certainly know that
I am no Hercules and have no chance in Hades of slaying the Gold
Confiscation Hydra alone, I sincerely hope my humble thoughts
add to the debate in some small way and help ultimately vanquish
this troublesome recurring gold-confiscation-scare beast. It
is nothing more than a numismatics marketing ploy, period.
July 2, 2004
Adam Hamilton, CPA
email:
zelotes@zealllc.com
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