.. Can we talk? Joseph Fasciani April 21, 2003 At the risk of being condemned as a "nag" by my daughter Lela after we finished making over the US$249,000 "fixxer-upper" she bought in November 1999, I started about six months ago, asking when she was going to sell it and take profits. Recently married, she had a very good position as a civil engineer with a major East Bay firm in California, "the golden state," and was certain matters would go on forever. This, in spite of the tens of thousands she'd lost in the ever-so-high-tech sector! "Don't forget, Dad, I made a lot of money there too! Those profits were the down payment on this house." "Yes, but you forget the losing positions you won't let go of, in spite of what I've shown you in charting, technical analysis, fundamentals, and research. Most of all, I don't want you to end the way I did, when gold hit $850 and I was land rich and money poor." "But Dad, things were different then! That was Canada, nearly twenty years ago, and this is now!" So there it is: this is most certainly now, no doubt about it, and the situation's the same...only worse, much worse. Still, in the year and a half I'd spent with her as financial mentor, she had begun to see matters in a different light. She had made more money, faster, trading put options than she ever had with equities, at a time when markets were going down, a novel concept to her. That was good, so she began to trust me a little more. But a year ago, when I started talking about real estate as the last bubble, she was sure the old guy had lost it. After all, didn't she live in California, where property only went up, never down? So then I asked her about Plan B. "What's Plan B?" she asked. "Well, you've made money doing what you did so far, you have a house, and you're both working. That's Plan A. But what happens if Mark gets laid off, the economy tanks, and you're on one income instead of two?" "Yeah, but that won't happen." "Really? Then what do you call all the corporate crack-ups, bankruptcies, and market scandals?" "I don't know, I can't follow everything, I'm too busy. That's what you're supposed to be doing for me!" "Why do you think we're making thousands by shorting companies? Because they're doing well? So what's your next plan?" "I don't have one," she admitted. "Okay. How about you unload the house now--which you said you were going to do anyhow--and use the money to buy a smaller place, one that could be paid for out of your salary?" To make this family saga brief, she caved in and did just that, last September. The next house was ten years newer, had far less maintenance, its combined mortgage and taxes were only $1000/month with a substantial down payment out of her profits, and was easily paid out of her salary alone. In the six months following the sale of her old house (at $484,000.00 to people with more money than market savvy), her husband was injured on-site at his workplace, lost that job, recovered, got a better job. Two months later he hospitalized himself again, got out before Christmas, came home, and four days later decided to trim the redwood tree in their backyard. He fell from the top, landed on the wooden doghouse and cracked six ribs. This employer kept him on. And surprise! Lela can make the payments on her own. Plan B worked. At my insistence she also bought $25,000.00 of SGGDX and RGLD, and will be adding to her position next week. I took another $25,000.00 at that time, used Elliott Wave Theory applications, and made 31% for her in less than six weeks' trading in equities, when we dumped them last week in the "rally." Other than T bills, we are completely out of paper instruments at this time. Her husband, Mark, is still at home. But she can make the payments! And she's well-positioned to weather stormy markets and a failing economy. I don't want to see her stuck as I was, under huge debt, land rich, and money poor in a time of rising interest rates. Which brings me to the final point of this foray into never-never land, about to become "deja vu all over again" land. Because the Iraqnam War's started the interest cycle into motion, rolling to ever higher rates, as the economy stagnates. And you read it here first. Already I hear cries of disbelief and anguish! What's he talking about? Any fool can see that will lead to inflation, hurt weak stock markets, etc., etc. Well, let's review a little history, shall we? Let's start with the really good old days, say 1863, when the newly formed Union Pacific and Central Pacific Railroad needed to raise millions. To attract savings they had to offer an interest rate of 6% on their bonds. They went to President Lincoln with their ideas, got permission, and the rest, as they say, is history. Before me is a copy of an 1882 Federal Gold Certificate: it bears a portrait of Lincoln on its left face, and on the right face a seal of 500. Between is bannered: This certifies that there have been deposited in the Treasury of the United States FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS in GOLD COIN Repayable to the bearer on demand. Now those really were the good old days! Wouldn't you like to have that as money today! But here's the kicker: when you cashed those in, you got gold coinage, at six percent um per annum. So gold can indeed pay interest, in a roundabout way, called "investing in viable commerce." The basic flaw in the US economy today is that too much of it is based on what ecological economics calls "unsustainable growth," which medical doctors know as "cancer." Until we return to truly fundamental, useful production that meets real human needs, the cycle of boom and bust will continue until we self-destruct. Sorry, but the universe is a closed system, with inevitable consequences. Which is why Heraklitus could say that "The way up and the way down is one and the same." Keep that in mind when you're trading! This problem was resolved, however, by Dr Eugen Loebl in his economic treatise "Humanomics: How We Can Make the Economy Serve Us, Not Destroy Us", published in 1972, and highly praised by Peter Drucker and many others. We would do very well indeed to pay attention to what he says. Some believe the Iraqnam War will magically revive this economy. Really? Did the Vietnam War do that? No. Instead, that lop-sided waste of blood and treasure initiated a federal debt that's become unpayable, and brought us to our present state of affairs. And while history does not repeat itself in style, it does do so in substance, and unless we learn these lessons, we must pay the price of our willful ignorance. "There is nothing," remarked Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, "more frightening than ignorance in action." You read it here first: interest rates will rise in six months after gold's peak at $390. This will occur just after the dollar bottoms (We're not quite there yet.), because that is the only way for it to retain credibility. Roosevelt had to do the same at the bottom of the last Great Depression. Look it up. Gold's price perfectly anticipates the decrease in the value of the dollar. Count on it. Please note that I've not brought in the matter of gold's appeal in times of crisis and turmoil, which the current Washington admin promises us an infinite amount of for a very long time. But enough frivolity from me. Get a copy of Dr Charles MacKay's Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It was written in 1841, has never gone out of print, and describes perfectly what we're going through. You may get a belly full of laughs in his chapters on stock market swindles and the collapse of fiat (paper) currency once, twice, many times before, bringing on national crisis. If you don't like what I'm saying, fine, but at least read what others here at 321gold have given as ample timely warning. And take Goethe's words to heart: many consider him the most intelligent, aware person who has ever lived. With 5 to 10% of your net worth in gold, you'll have an immutable, intelligent investment in your own survival. Joseph Fasciani April 21, 2003 ________________ 321gold Inc Miami USA