Casey Files:
The Times, They Are A-Changin'
Donald Grove
Washington Correspondent
Casey
Research
Nov 22, 2008
President-elect Barack Obama
is faced with the daunting challenge of fulfilling his campaign
promises - promises he actually made, along with those that voters
think he made. Unfortunately, the latter category predominates.
The new president didn't actually say much on the campaign trail,
but he said it well. He invited Americans to dream, actually
to fantasize, about an unreal world in which their government
will care for them using its own unlimited supply of money -
money that comes from some mysterious place that too few people
have even thought about, much less understand.
Voters are said to have turned
to the left, to liberal candidates, in part out of a desire to
change the economy's direction. Their choices at the polls are
said to reflect their concern over the economy's descent into
recession, loss of jobs, and the collapse of their retirement
accounts. These are legitimate and understandable concerns. Unfortunately,
voters have not done the hard work of learning about and understanding
basic economics. As a result, they have set themselves up for
their predicament to worsen exponentially.
I think it's safe to say that
we don't really expect politicians to keep their campaign promises.
We can only hope that the new president will conveniently forget
to raise taxes on capital gains and dividends, raise the top
income tax rates, impose a windfall profits tax on oil production,
maintain or raise high corporate tax rates, collect more social
security taxes, mandate higher ethanol production, expand regulation,
and add new entitlements, just to recall a few of the proposals
bandied about during his campaign. We can't all ride in the wagon.
Someone has to pull it.
The presumption seems to be
that government has a big job to do in cleaning up this mess
and it will need more money to do so. Wrong! Government is still
the problem. Obama has promised to help the Blue Dogs (fiscally
conservative House Democrats) achieve fiscal discipline, including
honoring the pay-as-you-go ("PayGo") rule against adding
to the budget deficit. There are only two ways to do that...
need I say more?
There are limits to how much
tax you can extract from the populace before you are faced with
open revolt. While Obama's tax increases are ostensibly imposed
on the rich, the pain of those tax increases will also be felt
by the poor. Moreover, there is no way that straightforward taxation
will be enough. Instead, we can count on more of the surreptitious,
insidious, and brutally regressive tax of inflation to fill the
gap.
This should have been a contest
focused on the real, underlying issue facing Americans and the
world: will we choose more or less government? Instead, the contest
was over more government or much more government. It appears
voters chose the latter. They know something is wrong, but like
a drunk taking "a hair of the dog that bit you" to
ease the pain of a hangover, Americans are hoping to cure their
ills with another dose of the same poison that made them ill.
I have heard the new president
described as a fall guy. In a way it's too bad that he may mean
well but will probably preside over economic hardship that persists
for many years. At first the continuing debacle will be blamed
on George Bush and a Congress with enough minority influence
to have thwarted the grand plans of a thin majority. Inevitably,
however, the inherent character of government and politics will
be apparent in this new administration as well. The nation's
chief executives and legislatures of both parties have shared
in contributing to today's economic meltdown all the way back
to the creation of the central bank in 1913. The Obama administration
is backed by a now stronger congressional majority that is very
nearly filibuster proof and no longer needs to worry much about
mustering the supermajority required to override a presidential
veto. Those who sent Barack Obama to the White House are anxious
to see their fantasies made manifest. They may be patient for
a little while, but not for long.
Hillary Clinton ultimately
did a great job of helping to boost Senator Obama into the White
House. Some say she's now a shoo-in for a White House appointment,
but she at least professes to be happy to continue being the
best senator from New York that she can be. Probably a wise move.
Barack Obama came to office
with the promise to deliver "Change We Need," but we
know that, since Texas Congressman Ron Paul left the race, no
one has had the cojones to actually discuss the change we really
need.
I wish the new president well
and hope he will, miraculously, do the right thing. In my heart,
however, I know he cannot. Leveling with Americans would be political
suicide. In their own way, the Obama administration and a cooperative
legislature may pave the way for a truth-telling politician in
the future - an honest, uncompromising man or woman whose message
today would be ignored and drowned out, even by the fading echoes
of election night euphoria.
Times they are a-changing faster
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