 Gold Over $700: Too Much, Too Fast?
By Doug Casey
The
International Speculator
May 15, 2006
DOUG CASEY, chairman of Casey Research,
is an internationally acclaimed resource stock speculator and
author of the book "Crisis Investing," which broke
records by spending 26 weeks as #1 on the New York Times Best-Seller
list. Each month his International Speculator newsletter
provides unbiased, carefully-researched recommendations
on early-stage gold, silver and other natural resource stocks
with the potential to provide a 100% or better return over the
coming 12-month period. To learn more about intelligent investing
in resource stocks and about the International Speculator, click
here.
Recently there was much ado
about an ambitious Harvard student (a redundancy) who got caught
with someone else's prose on her hands.
So that I don't suffer the
same embarrassment, I will forewarn you that parts of what you
are about to read were swiped wholesale... albeit from myself,
from a recent interview sent out as a special report to subscribers
of our International Speculator newsletter.
While the reasons for this
outrage definitely include sloth and a lack of time, they also
include the fact that the interview is fresh and still very much
relevant to the questions at hand. Namely, "Are we really
in the precious metals bull market of a lifetime?" and...
"With gold blasting over $700, have things moved too far,
too fast?"
 To answer the
first, I would start by pointing out (as I did to our subscribers)
that bull markets and bear markets follow one another as surely
as a person in- and exhales. And, as with breathing, the longer
you hold your breath, the more urgent and powerful the subsequent
intake. Commodities in general, but precious metals in particular,
went through a deep bear market that lasted an entire generation.
Gold fell from over $800 in 1980 to $256 in 2001; silver from
$50 to $4. These are fantastically deep and prolonged bear markets.
But they were even worse than they seemed because the dollar
was losing about two-thirds of its value at the same time. For
Americans to keep track of value, over time, with dollars is
as idiotic as for an Argentine to try to do that with pesos.
The financial crisis of the
late 1970s drove the metals to those highs. We're now looking
at another crisis, one that will dwarf the turmoil of the 1970s
and likely bring on a depression worse than the 1930s. With so
much trouble just ahead, there's good reason to believe that
the metals will exceed their old highs-which, in today's dollars,
means gold over $2,000. Let me reiterate what I've said for years:
This time, gold isn't just going through the roof. It's going
to the moon.
And there are other reasons.
Because the bear market was so long and deep, there's been relatively
little exploration for new deposits of not just precious metals
but of all metals-copper, nickel, moly, zinc, you-name-it. Meanwhile
consumption has risen steadily all over the world, but especially
in China, and now India.
Entirely apart from that, most
areas of the world have been pretty well explored. As with oil,
the easy-to-find, rich, near-surface deposits have been cherry
picked. What's left are mostly low-grade or deep deposits in
hard-to-access locations. And even after you've found a deposit,
permitting is expensive and slow.
In a nutshell, the world has
been living out of inventory for a long time.
But, as far as the precious
metals are concerned, these factors will be greatly compounded
by the brewing monetary crisis. It will be of historic proportions.
Has gold moved too far, too fast?
There are basically two views.
The bears argue, quite correctly, that commodity run-ups are
always self correcting: consumption drops just as production
increases and prices retreat. They also point out, correctly,
that the longest bear market ever is actually in commodity prices,
which have been dropping, in real terms, since the beginning
of recorded history. The bulls, including myself, argue that,
while these things are true, both fundamental and monetary factors
militate for perhaps a decade of higher prices until the fundamental
trend reasserts itself. In other words, I think we're in a period
that's going to run against the norm. Stocks, in bear markets,
tend to fall twice as fast as they previously rose. Commodities,
in bull markets, rise twice as fast as they previously fell.
We're in one of those times. I, like everyone else, would be
much more comfortable in conventional, prosperous times. But
I like to be a realist and make the trend, whatever it is, my
friend.
When the bubble arrives --
and I'm very confident it will -- it will be easy to tell. The
magazine cover stories, the cocktail party buzz, the talk of
legislation in Washington to "do something" about high
prices, the reports from brokerage firms -- there will be lots
of indicators. Of course, few people will pay attention to them
in the right way -- they'll think they're accurate descriptions
of reality, not indicators of a mania. It was the same with the
Internet stocks a few years ago.
Generally there are three stages
to a bull market. The first is stealth, when prices go up but
nobody cares or even notices. With commodities, that happened
from about 2000 to 2003. Next is the "Wall of Worry"
stage. People see that prices are rising, but expect them to
fall back to the bear market levels they'd gotten used to. People
come up with all kinds of reasons why they're overpriced. They
are confused by the new reality, and many "old hands"
and commodity producers take the opportunity to sell, since they
haven't seen good prices for years. This is the stage of the
market we're now in. Finally, there is the mania stage, when
broad masses of the public get involved. It's where the big profits
-- but also the big risks -- are. Personally, I'm more comfortable
buying when everyone says you're an idiot for doing so, or at
least when they're skeptical. When we're all hearing about what
a great investment gold is, I'll be looking for other opportunities.
But my guess is that we won't really be there for another year.
And when it arrives, the mania should last for some time, as
it did most recently with the Internet stocks.
While I was expecting to see
a big surge -- and went on record with that expectation on March
22 when gold was trading at $550 -- there's little doubt that
gold and silver may be getting ahead of themselves for the short
term. A market trend, even an unstoppable one -- which is how
I view the current metals bull market -- is still going to periodically
correct.
Get used to it.
That is especially true if
you're an investor in the mining shares, which is absolutely,
without question, the right way to play this market. Buy on dips
(historically, we see buying opportunities in the summer months)
and don't be chased out of the market by volatility.
When this thing does finally
come to an end, the better-managed gold and silver stocks will
be trading for many multiples of what they trade for today.
This trend is your friend...
get comfortable with it.
-Doug Casey
The emerging
bull market in precious metals, and in the precious metals stocks,
is just beginning to gather speed, with 100%, 300%, even 2,000%
profits ahead for early investors.
But the really
big profits require being selective in your chosen stocks, avoiding
the "paper tigers" and focusing on those with excellent
management teams, working on big targets in highly prospective
geology. For over 20 years, Doug Casey's International
Speculator
has been providing investors with clear, unbiased recommendations
on the world's best resource stocks. To learn more about this
uniquely valuable service, click the link below.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0506A
-Doug Casey
The International Speculator
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