Greenspan's Black Hole
Brian Bloom
Jan 31, 2008
If you read this
article (Greenspan interview) in context of an understanding
that "energy drives the economy", and in context of
the rising trendline of the PMO oscillator on the 30 year Bond
Yield monthly chart, you have to agree with Greenspan.
The third quote highlighted is almost unbelievable in its disingenuousness.
The man is either unbelievably stupid or unbelievably dishonest
or unbelievably obtuse. But the emphasis is on the word "unbelievable".
How else could these bubbles have formed, Mr Greenspan? Please
explain.
Since 1999, there has been
a series of three "rising bottoms" in the PMO Oscillator
of the long dated bond yield. This implies that market forces
are grinding away in the background and are preventing the long
bond yield from continuing along its downward trend. If the Fed
keeps doggedly hacking away at the short end, it will "force"
inflation. If it forces inflation, then the long bond yield will
have nowhere to go but up. The debt mountain will implode.
On the other hand, if the Fed finds itself unable to keep
the velocity of money from slowing, then the forces of debt will
grind away and the debt will compound. Eventually, the mountain
of debt will grow so high that it will crush the economy.
The way I see it, this problem is insoluble by the Fed. It requires
a new energy paradigm to act as a driver of world economic activity
across a broader front. To "replace" oil and
coal is not going to be enough. We have to have a source of energy
that will be available to even those who do not have access to
energy today. If we fail in that task, the world economy will
die of natural causes. It's a matter of time. No matter how hard
one tries, one cannot fit a size 10 foot into a size 7 shoe.
Just ask Cinderella's sisters. It can't be done. We need a bigger
shoe, and it is a source of ongoing amazement to me that so few
people have yet understood this simple fact - because it has
been increasingly visible since 1975. By 1985 it was starkly
evident to anyone who took the trouble to look.
Here is the evidence as it was available in 1985 (Source: New
Scientist, May 1985)
There was never going to be
enough natural gas to support a world population that was growing
at 1.3% p.a.; and Nuclear has no capacity to support downstream
economic activity in third world countries. The scientists are
starting to argue "solar power". They may be partially
right but that cannot be the answer across the entire planet
- in particular if we are heading for a period of global cooling
which will be characterised by high cloud cover.
I would expect further upside gaps to manifest on the monthly
gold chart as realisation finally dawns. That will be a reflection
of what the psychologists refer to as "non directional behaviour"
- like kicking a lawn mower when the motor won't start. It makes
you feel better, but it doesn't help start the lawn mower's motor.
Source: decisionpoint.com
Brian Bloom
Australia
website: www.beyondneanderthal.com
email: info@beyondneanderthal.com
 Since 1987, when Brian
Bloom became involved in the Venture Capital Industry, he has
been constantly on the lookout for alternative energy technologies
to replace fossil fuels.
Beyond Neanderthal
Brian Bloom's novel Beyond Neanderthal is a factional work
which took over twenty years to research.
Via the medium
of its light hearted storyline, it examines how the world has
gotten itself into the horrific quagmire of economic and social
problems with which we are now faced - and puts forward one possible
course of action on which we might embark to dig ourselves out.
It may be ordered
over the internet via www.beyondneanderthal.com. Or purchased from
Amazon.
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