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2004-2009 Pompous Prognosticators RevisitedReport from Nick Barisheff
In 2001, Colin Seymour published an article entitled 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators. In it, he documented the many Depression-era assurances given by politicians, economists, financial experts and the media to the public, protesting that everything was fine and there was nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, the stock market would decline by 92%, the US dollar would be devalued by 40%, real estate would drop 30% and unemployment would soar to 25%. Today, we have a similar situation. Politicians, economists and the media are assuring the public that everything is fine. But governments around the world are frantically borrowing trillions of dollars to fund bailout and stimulus plans, the stock markets have lost over 40% of their value, real estate over 50%, and unemployment is approaching 10% in most major countries.  2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 5. “The impact on the
broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the
subprime markets seems likely to be contained.” 6. “In today's environment,
it is virtually impossible to violate rules.” - 2008 8. “Although recent data
suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased,
CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large
enough to register as a recession.” 9. “I don't think we're
headed to a recession.” 10. “I don't anticipate
any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally
active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking
system.” 11. “No! No! No! Bear
Stearns is not in trouble.” 12. “Later this year,
I expect growth will pick up.” 13. “Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under....
I think they are in good shape going forward.” 14. “My own belief is
if we were going to have some sort of big crash or recession,
we probably would have had it by now.” 15. “We're probably somewhere
pretty close to a bottom.” 16. “The fundamentals
of our economy are strong.” 17. “We remain committed
to examining all strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder
value.” - 2009 Just as Seymour's Pompous Prognostications proved devastating for those investors who remained complacent due to those false assurances, today's investors would be wise to educate themselves on the real risks and vulnerabilities they face today. In order to preserve their wealth over the coming years, investors need to make wise, informed decisions, stop being complacent, and avoid following the false assurances of politicians and financial experts. With countless risks and vulnerabilities facing the world, the next 20 years will not be the same as the last 20 years. Sources: FederalReserve.gov, BusinessWeek, CNBC.com, Realtor.org, Marketwatch.com, USA Today, Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, BBC.com, TimesOnline, written on
Jul 6, 2009 321gold Ltd
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Nick Barisheff is President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company that provides investors with a cost-effective, convenient way to purchase and store physical bullion. Widely recognized in North America as a bullion expert, Barisheff is an author, speaker and financial commentator on bullion and current market trends. He is interviewed monthly on Financial Sense Newshour, an investment radio program in USA. For more information on Bullion Management Group Inc. or BMG BullionFund, visit:
