Jul 10, 2010 Buying Gold in the Summer Sales Adrian Ash 321gold ...inc ...s

Buying Gold in the Summer Sales

Adrian Ash
Bullion Vault
Jul 10, 2010

Buying gold in July or August only failed to pay once by year's-end since this bull market began...

So we got an abrupt switch in the short-Euro, long-gold trade last week, writes Adrian Ash at secure, low-cost gold ownership service Bullion Vault.

Widely recommended as it continued to win, the position delivered 22% gains between end-March and end-June, and it looked closely held as Q2 finished, no doubt so funds could highlight it in their quarterly client reports.

Since July 1st, in contrast, a lot of recent inflows to gold are going to be asking whether the summer's drop to date is just a dip, a seasonal lull, or the beginning of the end for gold's 10-year bull market.

We'd split the difference, and see what's behind that curtain in the middle.

Yes, the summer lull has arrived later than usual. Since 1968, only 2005 saw June set a new high for the year (daily basis; the chart above tracks month-end prices).

And yes, there's reason to doubt one key driver of gold's seasonal cycle Indian consumer demand. Its own seasonal shape - led by weddings, festivals and the intervening pre-harvest lull - must have less impact on global Gold Prices as Kerala's farmers weigh ever-higher Rupee prices per 10 grams.

But for Dollar investors, since this bull market began a decade ago, buying gold in July or August has only failed once to deliver a gain by year's-end. The 2008 low came at end-Oct. The rest of the time, Sept. worked like a starting gun for strong gains in gold.

Does the second-half of 2010 have to play out to script? Of course not.

But even if the bull market is over (which looks unlikely what with global interest rates at zero, let alone with fresh monetary mayhem ahead), even a bear-market fillip would give July's buyers the chance to get out for a profit by the end of September.

Buying gold today? Make it simple, secure and cost-effective by using BullionVault.

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9 Jul, 2010
Adrian Ash

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events - and must be verified elsewhere - should you choose to act on it.

Contact the author regarding this article.

website: www.bullionvault.com
email: adrian.ash@bullionvault.com

Adrian Ash runs the research desk at BullionVault, the world's #1 private investor gold service. Formerly head of editorial at Fleet Street Publications - London's top publisher of financial advice for private investors - he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning for four years, and is now a regular contributor to 321gold, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Prudent Bear, SafeHaven and Whiskey & Gunpowder among many other leading investment websites. Adrian's views on the Gold Market have been sought by leading news organizations including the Financial Times, Bloomberg and Der Stern in Germany.

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