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Patience Will be RewardedDr Richard
Appel
All great Bull Markets spend the majority of their time in corrective modes. After each period of upward progress exhausts itself, a far longer time ensues before the next up-wave emerges. This is when the markets correct the excesses created by the excited late-comers, whose frantic bidding drove prices beyond sustainable levels. It is typical for a secondary Bull Market correction, and the often lackluster initial rise out of its new higher base, to last twice as long or longer as the emotionally charged price rise that it followed. In fact, the present Bull Markets in gold and especially its mining shares, bear testament to this statement. Gold's corrections during this Bull Market have been of shorter duration and far less severe than those of the major gold producers. Similarly, the price declines among the junior gold exploration stocks have been far steeper and longer lasting when compared to their major gold mining counterparts. These events are normal. They are dependent to a large degree upon the type of investors and the level of speculation that these differing groups bring to their respective markets. Those who are steadfast believers in gold acquire their gold holdings either purely as a means of protection or as a hedge against the profligate spending and actions of our governing leaders. They view gold bullion as the purest and safest asset with which to protect their wealth. They may earmark some of their bullion commitments as a trading vehicle, but by and large they are in gold for the long run. They are indeed the core group and strong hands of the gold market, and presently comprise the majority of physical gold investors. The remainder of those investing in gold are generally looking for a trade and currently comprise a small contingent. Because most gold purchasers will not lightly separate from their gold holdings, advances and retreats in the gold price offer the least volatility when compared to the two groups of gold stock participants. Investors that favor the major gold producers are more speculative than the core group. Their members may contain a large number of the former, but while they desire the protection of a gold investment they are looking for more leverage and the hope for greater profits. They invest in time tested major producing companies. They do this with the belief that higher gold prices will drop to the company's bottom line as greater profits. And, they anticipate the price-earnings multiplier to generate far higher percentage gains for their stocks when compared with any rise in gold. Most of the major mining shares are available for sale at any time. Further, this contingent attracts a large number of traders that are speculating in a higher gold price, without really believing the underlying facts favoring a gold Bull Market,. This group has "one foot out the door" at all times. They will not hesitate to jettison their gold share positions at the earliest sign of a gold reversal. Compared with gold, the producing company shareholders have far fewer among them that are in it for the long term. This leaves a much larger component than those investing in gold, who will move in and out of the market. The presence of this group creates far greater price volatility in the stocks, than in the yellow metal itself. Now we come to the junior gold exploration stock investors. I use the word "investors" with my tongue in cheek. In truth, we are all speculating in this sector at best, and gambling in it at worst. The exploration market attracts people for a number of reasons. First, it offers the hope and dream of enormous profits. We have all been drawn to this market sector because of the true but infrequent stories that emanate from it. These surround companies that traded for pennies but found great economic ore bodies, or even one that appeared to offer such potential, and witnessed their share prices skyrocket to enormous heights. Tales of companies attaining the $20 level are often told. Others, that have risen to $50, $100, $150 or even more attest to the possibility of investing one's money in a $0.25 or $0.50 stock, and garnering a fortune in return. At this point I believe that anyone investing in this field should read my essay; "How To Profit On The Road To Failure." It will bring you down to earth and will help you better navigate and even profit in this market. The second primary group of individuals that enters the junior market is composed of those who are either true believers in gold, are gold or stock speculators, or are somewhere in between. They recognize the leverage that the primary gold producers offer to a higher gold price, but they desire an even greater profit potential than can be attained from investing in them. I fit into this category. We realize that a gold Bull Market will lift the share prices of the vast majority of companies in this group. Further, given the opportunity to "strike it rich" with one of our companies, it gives the exploration stock participants an added incentive. Unfortunately, this sector not only bears the promise of substantial profit, but it also generates the severest losses. While people who invest in gold producing stocks have "one foot out the door" those who participate in the juniors have all but their baby toe out the door. Our greed draws us into this market and sets us up to bolt when our varying maximum levels of fear and pain are triggered. This mentality generates the greatest price volatility of the three markets. A junior resource Bull Market creates a series of great peaks and deep valleys. When gold is sharply rising company after company sees its share price soar when they announce exciting exploration results or acquisitions. However, when gold weakens or trades sideways in price this market tends to drift lower. When the exploration stock sector approaches or is at an intermediate top, such as we experienced early last Spring, no one wants to miss out on the perceived and seemingly guaranteed higher prices. The result is a bidding of the shares to extremely overvalued levels. I use the term "extremely overvalued" in a relative sense. Since none of these companies actually have anything concrete upon which to determine real value, let alone earnings, they must be viewed on a relative basis; what does one company with a certain market capitalization have to offer compared with the others in its class. Then, the great excesses that are produced at the temporary peaks are gradually bled out of the market during the ensuing, seemingly interminable declines. The bidders have left the market. That primarily leaves the sellers to control the price levels until a renewed gold rise again brings excitement and capital into this market. With the absence of a new, extended gold advance company after company experiences lower prices. This occurs whenever someone sells his shares. It continues until the general investor mentality in this sector again gains confidence that a new gold up-trend is in place. At each corrective, junior stock bottom the final "weak hands" jettison their shares. Since there are few true believers, the exploration sector bottoming process is quite extended when compared to even that of the gold producing companies. It takes time before the last few holdouts have suffered sufficient pain to motivate them to take their losses, and sell their final shares. This is the reason why this most speculative group is the last gold complex segment to awaken and resume its Bull Market advance. I first invested in gold stocks in1972. During the following decades I found that a few conditions have virtually always held true during gold Bull Markets. Prior to major gold bottoms the primary gold producers typically strike their nadirs and develop up-trends several months before gold. Then, the initial gold advance is attended by increasing prices for the shares of the major gold companies. This is followed, and often by several months, by the junior companies ending their correction and joining gold and the majors. Finally, all three sectors move higher in unison.. I believe that the odds greatly favor that gold has posted its low for this correction. It firmly vaulted above the roughly $415 to $425 zone that has foiled all of its advances since1989. This was accompanied by a dearth of commentary regarding its immense Bull Market significance. This is not surprising given that most gold believers are still not truly confident in the existence of gold's Bull Market. It is normal in Bull Markets for areas of strong resistance to be transformed into zones of important support after they are ultimately surpassed. When gold finally vaulted above the $415-$425 area late last year it quickly bolted to nearly $460 before retreating. To date, the $415-$425 zone has already presented a great deal of support for the eternal metal. Other reasons that confirm my belief in gold's Bull Market and an impending higher prices are that the commercials, the bullion banks, gold producers and major users of the metal, have sharply reversed their net short position. This is now at or near similar low net short levels that have supported earlier significant gold price advances. Further, given our two wars and soaring budget and current account deficits, the dollar is destined for far lower levels. However, and this is my one caveat boding against a higher, immediate gold price, the U.S. dollar should trade higher at least in the near term. The U.S. Dollar Index 80 area has offered major support for over 25 years. If the dollar doesn't stage at a modest advance for at least the next few months, it will indicate how truly weak it really is. While the dollar is flat or rising, gold will be hard-pressed to stage anything better than a tepid advancing trend. Similarly, the odds favor that the gold producers have posted their lows. They are awaiting a signal to join the noble metal when it again sharply advances. The junior exploration stocks are in a different stage. Their price action indicates that, while some companies are still probing for their nadirs, the better managed stocks have passed their lows and are beginning to creep, and in some cases leap higher. Money to finance the better "stories" is becoming plentiful, and there is much concrete evidence that there are willing buyers for the shares of an increasing number of companies. These are conditions that have attended the incipient stages of earlier junior Bull Market advances. All but the most hardened and well-seasoned investors buy near the tops of all markets, and sell at or near their low points. While the lows for most of the markets described above may not have been posted, I am confident that they will be shortly. Of utmost importance, this is the area where the great bargains emerge in all great Bull Markets. It is the stage where the pros take their largest positions. This is the time to make educated purchases, not sales made out of fear. These markets may begin to rally within a few weeks or it may take a few months. But when they do I am confident that your patience and confidence in them will be richly rewarded. The above was excerpted from the February 2005 issue of Financial Insights ©January 30, 2005. Dr Richard
Appel Appel Archives. I publish Financial Insights. It is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential. Disclaimer. Please visit my website www.financialinsights.org where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following. You will also be able to learn about me and about a special subscription offer.
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