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My Top Stock Pick for 2004Dr Richard
Appel Each year, the Dick David Digest invites me to briefly describe my favorite company for the upcoming year for inclusion in their newsletter. This is a difficult task to undertake, as they limit my description to only 200 words of text. In this as in every year I do my best to touch on the most important aspects of the company that I best like. Yet, after submitting the copy to Dick Davis I am always left with the feeling that a more complete description is warranted to more thoroughly present the reasoning behind my selection for my year's first choice. Below is the text of my top stock pick for 2004, as recently submitted to the Dick Davis Digest: ATHLONE
MINERALS LTD. Owning shares of Athlone is a play on its exceptional management. Among its directors is David Smith. Prior to 1982, he was Vice President of Exploration for Shell Canada where he was instrumental in the discovery and development of about 15 trillion feet of natural gas. Subsequently, and prior to its sale, Mr. Smith built Lasmo Canada into a 5,000 barrel a day oil producer. Athlone's objective is to become an important oil and natural gas producer by exploiting low risk projects that offer immediate payback or that are substantial in size. In the few months since entering the oil patch Athlone has acquired the right to earn into up to 140 sections (89,600 acres) in the Belle Fourche project in Saskatchewan. Athlone has since drilled five wells there and, using the preliminary results, have acquired an additional 35 sections (22,000 acres). They are in the process of completing and testing the wells and just closed a $4.5 C. million financing to fund further drilling. Given Athlone's wealth of contacts in the industry, as well as $30+ oil and $5 + natural gas prices, I am confident that Athlone will bring similar important projects into the company. I first featured Athlone at $0.84 C. and own shares of the company. The following are additional reasons that led me to choose Athlone as my "top pick," along with a more complete discussion of the company's development to date. Due to the ascendency of China and India as well as to the depletion of the vast majority of the world's known oil and gas reserves many industry experts believe that the current natural gas and oil prices will hold. Further, they may even appear reasonable in the not too distant future. Alan Greenspan recently stated that sufficient U.S. gas supplies were in jeopardy due to their rapid depletion and the questions remaining surrounding their replacement. Additionally, only a few days ago Royal Dutch/Shell, in a surprise announcement, stated that they were reducing their proven oil and gas reserves by 20%. This immediately raised the question of the validity of the oil and gas reserves of the world's major hydrocarbon producers, and further increases the likelihood of sustained or advancing oil and gas prices. Prior to mid-2003, Athlone's mandate was to explore for economic precious or base metal deposits. However, recognizing the potential windfall generated to the oil and natural gas industry by the oil and gas Bull Markets, Athlone's management recently astutely elected to redirect their focus to take advantage of this condition. Athlone has advanced greatly in the brief period since I first featured the company in the October, 2003 issue of Financial Insights. Prior to the recent explosion in the prices of oil and natural gas, exploration companies were forced to use a $20 or less price per barrel of oil, and a $2.00 to $2.50 per million cubic feet (mcf) gas price, in order to determine the economics of a project. This resulted from the extended period, prior to 2000, when oil ranged between about $10 and $30 a barrel and natural gas was range bound between about $1.75 and $3.50 per mcf. Importantly, since 2000, both oil and natural gas have trended sharply higher in price and the prospects for their maintaining these lofty levels are beginning to become widely accepted in the industry. Thus, prices substantially above $20 for oil and $2.50 for natural gas are beginning to be utilized when industry experts make their various economic calculations. During the earlier era, when the industry utilized a maximum of about $20 for oil and $2.50 for natural gas, many potential exploration plays were often rejected due to either the depth of the possible resource or for various technical reasons. In effect, they laid dormant due to the fact that the risk involved and the cost of discovery and production were not warranted due to the low gas and oil prices. This was more pronounced for natural gas because oil can be easily transported by tanker trucks while gas needs the availability of a pipeline for delivery to the purchaser. This condition can drastically impact the overall cost of a natural gas project and dictate its success or failure. Further, and for these reasons, earlier natural gas deposits were often found but were ignored. The company may have completed an economic oil well, but an accompanying natural gas resource in a different horizon was useless to them, because it may have been too expensive to move the gas to market. Now, this situation has drastically changed. To the advantage of Athlone, during the past four or more decades, numerous wells were drilled throughout the world that found oil or natural gas. Some of these hydrocarbon discoveries were economic but many were not due to economic considerations. Today, with far higher oil and gas prices, numerous heretofore uneconomic hydrocarbon horizons have now become economic and ripe for reevaluation and possible production. This offers knowledge people a window of opportunity to return and possibly profitably complete these wells or to drill new ones with a minimum of risk. The element of risk is reduced because much information is already known from earlier performed work, which greatly increases the odds for success. Since turning their energies towards the oil patch Athlone has already acquired two projects. Their first, the Success, is a 50% owned project with a maximum 5% royalty, into which Athlone has already drilled two wells. These were offsets to two existing oil wells that have produced over 165,000 barrels of oil. They were drilled in 1966 and 1988. Due to the close proximity of Athlone's wells to those that they offset, Athlone is presented with very little risk. If they are successful on either well they plan to drill two additional ones and will acquire as much of the surrounding land as possible. Further, if either well is economic it will immediately thrust Athlone into the select group of oil and gas producers. Yet, this project pales in magnitude and potential profitability to their second project, the Belle Fourche. They have presently either earned into or have acquired about a 50% interest, less a 12% overriding royalty, in the mineral rights to 56 sections (36,000 acres) of land. Further they can earn a similar interest in an additional 119 sections (75,000 acres) as well as acquire further similarly prospective property in the region. Thus, if Athlone is successful with their first wells it will greatly increase the likelihood that their Belle Fourche project will develop into a major hydrocarbon play. Further, if they meet with success on their Belle Fourche project, the attention of the oil and gas industry will likely be quickly directed onto Athlone. I have had lengthy discussions with Athlone's management in order to understand why they believe that they can obtain large oil and gas exploration projects that offer only a modicum of risk. To me they have a brilliant concept. This is because the prospects for which they are searching will already possess sufficient information from earlier drilling, that will greatly increase their likelihood for success. It is with this concept firmly in mind that I believe Athlone is striving to ferret out one or more additional significant projects. And, their potential for success to this end appears excellent as they still have little competition. This is due to the numerous overlooked hydrocarbon horizons that were earlier uneconomic but have now become wildly so because of today's $30+ oil and $5+ natural gas prices. The market is anxiously awaiting the results of Athlone's first seven wells. If they are successful with their first Belle Fourche wells the company's future is sealed due to their already extensive land-holdings in the area. If not, given Athlone's exceptional management team and many contacts in the industry, I am confident that they will continue to bring additional projects into the company which will offer both low risk and great potential. I publish Financial Insights. It is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential. Please visit my website www.financialinsights.org where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following. You will also be able to learn about me and about a special subscription offer. Dr Richard
Appel CAVEAT FINANCIAL INSIGHTS is written and published by Dr. Richard Appel and is made available for informational purposes only. Dr. Appel pledges to disclose if he directly or indirectly has a position in any of the securities mentioned. He will make every effort to obtain information from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Dr. Appel encourages your letters and emails, but cannot respond personally. Be assured that all letters will be read and considered for response in future letters. It is in your best interest to contact any company in which you consider investing, regarding their financial statements and corporate information. Further, you should thoroughly research and consult with a professional investment advisor before making any equity investments. Use of any information contained herein is at the risk of the reader without responsibility on our part. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Dr. Appel does not purport to offer personalized investment advice and is not a registered investment advisor. The information herein may contain forward-looking information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the statements contained herein that look forward in time, which include everything other than historical information, involve risks and uncertainties that may affect the company's actual results of operations. © 2004 by Dr. Richard S. Appel. All rights are reserved. Parts of the above may be reproduced in context, for inclusion in other publications if the publisher's name and address are also included for credit. 321gold Inc |
