.
A letter to the editor
of the National Post re 'gold hedge fever'
Anon
December
23, 2002
Regarding
your article titled: Gold
hedge fever
Hedging gold price risk may allow a producer to make greater
profits, and may depress the price of gold in the process. Is
that any reason to sue?
To start I would like to explain that I am an IA with a large
brokerage house in Canada. I would also like to acknowledge the
fact that I am not taking sides with this suit.
What I tell my clients is it is better to not be involved in
a company that has such accusations against it.
As for the reason for my response to you.
With all due respect I think that your article lacks some understanding
of the suit (if it can be put that way), perhaps better explained
as allegations. If this is not the case I apologize, as it then
represents a one-sided comment that does not fairly represent
both sides.
Barrick stands to profit in many ways from these processes used
in the allegations (I am not accusing them of it, as I am not
a lawyer or judge). I don't believe that the suit/allegation
is one dimensional as you allege. Hedging is a great form of
predicting profitability etc. which I am for. There is more to
this. The suit alleges that the price was kept in check so as
to allow ABX to continue its hedging at a profit.
Reasons:
By using forward
contracts they obviously allow themselves to guarantee a higher
price on delivery. If the allegations are correct then there
was collusion on both parties parts. The price was manipulated
downward towards the maturity of the contract.
By manipulating
the price of gold downward, it allows ABX to be more competitive
in the market place.
Lower prices
make it more difficult for junior companies to produce and explore.
With lower
explorations less discoveries lead to eventual increased demand/lower
supply.
Eventual increased
demand/decreased supply will lead to eventual increased prices.
Which ABX will be able to profit from in due time if they happen
to get on the wrong side of a hedge for a quarter or two.
By keeping
them down for so many years it has allowed ABX to increase its
reserves, buy up smaller companies at largely discounted prices
and prepare higher cost mines for eventual production.
Eventually there would be a sharp spike in the price of gold,
and low and behold in the last few months or so ABX has made
it publicly clear that they were winding down their hedging program.
Coincidence?!
Once again
I am not passing judgment on ABX (or you for that matter). I
do however believe that there have been some active parties trying
to supress the price of bullion. In your article you mention
that you have closely looked at ABX's hedging program, there
is nothing wrong with the practice of hedging, that is not the
argument. You also elude to the fact that companies have the
right to make money, that is not the argument (and I for one
believe in the free world as much if not more than you). The
argument/suit/allegations accuse of collusion and monopolistic
activities on the part of two companies that have the ability
to carry out these acts. Imagine if you will that these allegations
are correct: think of the investors that were cheated out of
an opportunity because their investment went bankrupt, or their
company sold for a song since they could not make ends meet,
or co. XYZ has not made the money that they could have, or think
about all the mines and undiscovered property that has been left,
how about all the workers that have been laid off since their
companies could not produce profitably.
I hope you take all this into consideration when you write another
article regarding this matter. I think that the media forgets
how much influence it has on the average investor. I do this
for a living and will have many clients call me on Monday and
over the next few weeks with questions about articles like this
one and others that predict Nortel will hit $100 again or $.79
again. Is it a wonder that there is so much panic in the market
place on a daily basis? The majority of investors will take this
view and perhaps invest in ABX due to your article because of
its source and your credentials, what happens if ABX is found
to be guilty of these practices, you won't be quite the guru
then.
Sincerely
Anon
(Due to the nature of his work, the author prefers to remain
anonymous)
December 23,
2002
Response
to Anon from 321Gold.
When investing
in anything, it is of prime importance to use logic and facts
to form your own investments decisions. In computing and investing,
the GIGO principal works. Garbage in equals garbage out.
For four years,
one site has maintained there is a giant conspiracy to manipulate
the price of gold and a CARTEL including both Barrick and JPM
were responsible for selling so much gold forward that the financial
system of the world was threatened. And for four years prospective
gold investors have been bombarded with a constant negative message
saying gold was a controlled market which was on the verge of
blowing up, taking the world's financial system with it. Early
this year we were even told the exact price of the explosion
which for four years has been "any day now."
"Gold
will, IMO, streak first to $354 (that number produced via derivative
extrapolation), where all hedged mines will bankrupt, & central
banks will sell gold"
Well, gold
went past $354 to $355 based on nothing more than a short squeeze
in Japan before correcting lower without the assistance of any
central banks. The gold derivatives didn't blow up, no bullion
banks collapsed and in fact, JPM went up 6.6% on the day.
If Anon had
actually been interested in balance which he is seeking of the
National Post, he would have pointed out that the same company
seeking redress from Barrick and JPM was advising their clients
to sell gold when it was $260 based on there being no future
in investments in gold.
Blanchard &
Company was wrong then and they are wrong now. The suit is no
more than a cheap publicity stunt aimed at two companies with
unpopular (with gold bugs) policies.
We maintain that Barrick's hedging is Barrick's problem. The
market has done a wonderful job of punishing Barrick when it
disagrees with their business decisions as it has punished JPM.
Making a profit for your shareholders didn't used to be a legal
problem.
I wouldn't
own Barrick on a bet but Blanchard refuses to answer any questions
as to what proof they have of wrongdoing on Barrick and JPM's
part and as such, I can only concede this is one more attempt
to hijack the American legal system ala suing McDonald's for
selling hamburgers.
There is no
gold derivatives problem at the bullion bank level and $354 gold
is as meaningless to the system as was $252 gold. Supposed gold
sites peddling nothing more than disinformation and illogical
rumors would do better convincing their readers of the true story
of gold.
Gold isn't
the problem, it's the solution.
-Bob Moriarty
December 23, 2002
321gold Inc Miami USA
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