|
|||
|
Black Box
Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time" Mining shares are off to the races...TRADING NOTES: For anyone holding gold shares, the Thanksgiving cornucopia was filled to overflowing yesterday. Especially impressive was the performance of Pacific Rim Mining (PMU), a stock that is not tracked in MarketWise Black Box but which I revisit regularly during my 9 a.m. Wise-Ex segment. (For a free trial, please follow links to Wise-Ex from www.marketwise.com). PMU had been hugging the 80-cent level for the last month or so, like Sea Biscuit lazily covering the back stretch. On Wednesday, however, it broke from the chute at 85 cents, then took off halfway into the session as if possessed by demons. Shortly thereafter, in two long, graceful strides on the 15-minute chart, it blew past the $1.00 mark and streaked to $1.25 before settling back a mere three cents at the close. Although I don't own PMU or any other stocks personally, this one's been in my kids' portfolios from 48 cents. It's an investment I won't even tell them about until they've sweated out a summer or two working in some minimum-wage job. But it illustrates a point I've emphasized here time and again -- that it's not rocket science to pick winners in the mining sector. An especially appealing aspect of gold investments right now is that they remain drastically under-covered by the likes of CNBC and most other mainstream touts. The broad share-averages that the networks and news media continue to obsess over may have risen 25-30% since March, but there are probably two dozen gold stocks that have lapped the field with gains of 100% or more during that same period. Someday, I predict, CNBC will offer us a stable of experts who can quote gold-mineralization levels per hectare in Ghana. Meanwhile, as long as they continue to serve up their version of the Hammacher Schlemmer catalogue and reviews of luxury sedans and kitchen appliances, we can confidently infer that bullion's bull market is still in its early adolescence. Learn How to Trade the E-Mini S&P "Pivot-Trading the E-mini S&P 500 Contract" is the topic of a two-day course to be presented online next week by MarketWise Trading School. The instructor, CBOT veteran John Seckinger, will explain in detail how to recognize which support/resistance levels are stronger than others, as well as how to develop a trading plan that finds high-probability entries with clearly defined risk not easily seen by the naked eye. The course will be held on December 3-4, from 4 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. EST. To register or obtain further information, please click on the following link: http://www.marketwise.com/mw_ecommerce/proddetail.asp?prod=OLCJS *** [The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.] DEC DJIA (9767): No change. The futures would still need to close above 9801 to generate an unambiguously bullish signal for the near-term. DEC E-MINI S&Ps (1057.50): Wednesday's timid action toyed with the supply zone I'd reckoned near 1060, but the futures will still need to close today -- above 1054.25 to suggest they are ready to chew through all of that supply. If so occurs, my minimum upside target would be 1078.00. DEC BONDS (110.07): Despite the indecisiveness of the last week-and-a-half, my outlook remains bullish, calling for a rally to as high as 113.31 over the next 4-6 weeks. A pullback of as much as two points may be needed to set the stage, however. OEX (521.21): No change. Any rally over the near-term would be impeded by a band of resistance from 522 to 526 that was created over a four-week period ended in mid-November. No action is warranted. QQQ (35.34): My immediate upside target is 36.42, but I expect the rally to be too labored to yield easy profits. Remain on the sidelines. DEC GOLD (396.80): Yesterday's lunge carried the futures to within $1 of our rally target at $403. This has served as an intermediate-term objective, but if it is surpassed by more than 0.60 0.70 cents we should expect the surge to continue to at least $415.30. That's an important enough hidden pivot to produce a pause of at least 2-3 weeks. DEC NASDAQ E-MINI (1421.00): My immediate rally target is still 1467.50, a hidden pivot that may take as long as three more days to achieve. *** INTC (33.35): Short-term stochastic influences have buoyancy to spare, but Intel would still need to close for two consecutive days above 33.74 (a hidden-pivot resistance) to clinch a rally to the next pivot, 35.81. FNM (70.40): Nothing to suggest. Fannie continues to oscillate within a tight range, making it impossible for me to predict exactly when it will break out. C (46.95): Stochastic lift could turn into drag within 2-3 days, but if Citi can muster a close above a Fibonacci-related obstacle at 47.43, I'd be inclined to give it the bullish benefit of the doubt for the near term. $ + GG (17.52): We hold 300 shares with a cost basis of 5.17. Let's offer a round lot to close at 18.14, two cents beneath the closest hidden-pivot resistance. If the offer is filled, enter a 16.53 bid for 200 shares, g-t-c. + HL (7.30): We hold five December 7.50 calls effectively for free after closing out five of them profitably last week. Do nothing further for now. + RANGY (16.29): We hold 400 shares with a cost basis of 9. We're in no rush to take profits, although I'll want to add to our position if the stock dips below 15.50. RGLD (21.04): We hold 300 shares with a cost basis of $8.84 per. This is a buy-and-hold proposition, one in which we'll persevere until $30 has been surpassed before we do any profit-taking. IBM (89.43): Zzzzzzz. EBAY (55.60): eBay is closing fast on a 56.55 peak made on November 13, but it'll need to surpass a second at 58.57 to create the kind of "impulse leg" with the potential to generate a strong second-wind rally. Rick Ackerman ***
Past profits are not indicative of future profits. Copyright
© 2001-2003 Market Wise |
Market
Wise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. ©Copyright
2001-2003 by Market Wise. It's now a FREE email newsletter. To
sign up please go 