  
|
|||
|
Google to $326, Gasoline to $3Rick Ackerman
Yesterday morning's Q&A session produced some eye-openers, including a new, $326 target for Google. The stock is trading just below $300 right now, having recorded an all-time high at $309 two weeks ago. Back in late May, with GOOG trading around $287, I projected a potentially shortable high at $315. Now, though, it looks as though the stock wants to go even higher. Because GOOG is a good proxy for the short-squeezy bullishness that has been driving stocks higher, the implication is that bears who continue to fight the tape are in for still more pain. We needn't risk much to play the long side of this opportunity, though, and I've concocted a nifty calendar-spread strategy that should suit all of you penny-pinchers just fine, so check it out in today's Touts. We fielded another query from a subscriber looking to take a position in Unleaded Gas futures. The good news - for all of us - is that there's a possible trade in the offing from the short side. The bad news - again, for all of us - is that the price at which we would look to go short is significantly above current levels. Specifically, there's a rally-killing pivot at 199.09, basis August - nearly 12.5% above yesterday's 177.54 close. If the futures are indeed on their way to that target, then we are likely to see $3 at the pump by summer's end. Miners Topping? Other inquirers asked me to take a look at three miners - Novagold, Gold Fields Ltd. and Goldcorp. All have been moving higher for at least the last two weeks, but their uptrends look nearly spent. Goldcorp has been the strongest of the three, but its rally since early June has generated a falling stochastic that suggests a price downturn is imminent. If so, that would imply August Gold is about to breach a 422.30 pivot that has so far prevented a fall to the next, 414.50. (Click to enlarge...as if it were necessary)
I received some interesting responses to yesterday's comments about anesthesia and the arrogance of modern medical science. There was this note, from a practicing anesthesiologist, Michael B.: "Your commentary on anesthesia deserves some additional comment. I am an anesthesiologist and these studies are indeed provocative. The final answers are not yet in. Anesthesia Question "I would like to see the research expanded to stratify age groups and pre-existing health problems. I suspect that when this is done the patients would layer out such that longer procedures, requiring deeper levels of sedation and anesthesia would be linked to death more frequently in older, sicker patients or patients who are involved in multiple trauma. "Compare for example a person who is 42 years old needing a complex shoulder repair which takes 2.5 hours with an 82-year-old who receives open heart surgery also taking 2.5 hours. Surely, the 82-year-old will have a higher rate of death two years out. What is the rate of death two years out for the 42 year old post shoulder repair vs. a 42 year old who didn't have surgery? That is the real question." My reply: Thanks for sharing your expertise, Michael. Your questions concerning a patient's age and general health remain to be answered, but fortunately data are plentiful and need only be harvested. Incidentally, I opted for general anesthesia despite my misgivings because the procedure involved the use of a tourniquet, and therefore potentially high levels of discomfort after about 45 minutes. As a child, I was not even allowed Novocain at the dentist's because my father, a pathologist, insisted that anesthetics be administered to his children only by an anesthesiologist. State of Flux It would appear that the profession has been in a state of flux during the last 15 or so years. In the early 1990s, when HMOs started to come into vogue, the sudden swing by cost-conscious insurers toward outpatient treatment took a heavy toll on your specialty. I was working as a headhunter at the time, specializing in recruiting anesthesiologists and physiatrists. I'd had trouble finding an anesthesiologist to fill a position in Battle Creek, even though the job started at $250k with a partnership interest after a mere two years. Not long after, though, due to penny-pinching on inpatient procedures, anesthesiologists became a glut on the market. They've evidently bounced back since, and I was surprised to read just a couple of weeks ago that their insurance premiums had declined dramatically -- the result of working closely with insurers to reduce risk. And from an Australian subscriber, Roger H., there was the following note: "I could sympathise with you on your dilemma with the medical profession. Their ability to ignore objective evidence for an alternative treatment, other than the pharmaceutically or surgically dominated thread of their profession is legendary. A very close relative of mine was a doctor, and as much as I respected his integrity, my engineering based objectivity could not concur with his ability to brand as rubbish the chiropractor who literally fixed the chronic back problem of my aunt, after a host of orthopedic surgeons and physiotherapists had failed. Surely if one was not brainwashed, one could at least say that they were thrilled that the back pain was now gone, and the method of the chiropractor warranted further investigation to see if anything could be learned for the betterment of mankind. Why does one need such high scores in high school to get into medicine?" Cynic Scores Medicine And here's one from a subscriber who signed himself "Eric, cynical hall-of-famer": "I'm a part-time trader as I remain employed in the booming business of cancer treatment. And the cliché of 'follow the money' couldn't be any truer than in this business. I'd gladly lose my salary and perks for a cure, but it ain't gonna happen. "Rick, there's no money to be made by the establishment for basic cures. Who hears anything from the media in regards to big pharma pursuing patent and marketing rights on botanicals, for God's sake? Cancer rates haven't improved one bit since the 'war' on it was declared. 'Curing' cancer is about the prevention of it. No treatments, no money to be made. I'm just a Caucasian Southern boy, but do favor the general philosophy on health care of traditional Chinese medicine. And don't forget that medical journals and the reports in them are akin to the fox watching the hen house. Recent news topics: '95% of Americans have Teflon in their blood' / 'Walking on cobble-stones lowers blood pressure'. One story involves making money, one doesn't. "It's funny how hope, fear and greed are labeled the enemies to success for a trader, yet they are the golden goose for the Western medicine establishment." [The author included a link to 'The Cynic's Sanctuary' that may be of further interest. To access the site, click here.] *** Penny Pinching Grappling with the trend? Check out Rick's Picks' archives to see how well Rick Ackerman has done with his forecasts and trading strategies. Rick Ackerman 321gold Inc |
