Rick's Picks
Reader's Guide To Housing
Bust
Rick Ackerman
Thursday Jun 1, 2006
Excerpt from
Rick's Picks (website).
You can subscribe here.
The Rick's Picks switchboard
lit up like a string of Black Cats yesterday as alarmed readers
responded to my wake-up call ahead of America's impending real
estate crash. The sole skeptic has been Frank P, a useful idiot
whose thoughts served as counterpoint to the discussion we had
on the topic yesterday. Turns out I'm not the only one Frank
has been pestering with his odd ideas, including the surreal
notion that there is no housing bubble. Louis Hill, author of
what looks to be an excellent primer on the gathering bust, has
been stalked by Frank, and so, evidently, have others of the
bearish persuasion. I won't dwell any longer on his crackpot
ideas, but I shouldn't pass up this opportunity to refer you
to Hill's fascinating
website , where you can order up an instant eCopy of his
book. It contains some useful chapters on surviving the crash,
as well as a lucid and compelling explanation of how we got into
this mess. I would also recommend visiting the wonderfully eclectic
blog of Charles
Hugh Smith, a Steve McQueen lookalike and apparent Sinophile
who thought Hill's book was terrific.
I mentioned that Frank had
sent me some head-in-the-sand dispatches from Bloomberg et al.
implying that talk of a housing bust is just alarmism. What I
did not realize until yesterday was that for every word of such
nonsense that comes out of Bloomberg, there are fifty lucid words
from other sources to serve as a reality check. Below is a short
list of links sent to me by a reader, in case you'd like to get
up to speed. The topics cover housing-bust news for only about
the last week or so, but it's a pretty good sampling of the genre.
It would be unusual, I must admit, for something so well anticipated
and well documented to precipitate out exactly as expected. Even
so, the collection of news stories below will leave you with
little doubt that homeowners are teetering on the edge of a deflationary
crisis:
Pick Your Topic...
Wed May 31 2006 Fort
Lauderdale: Houses for sale reach 11.4-month supply
Wed May 31 2006 Napa
house sales slow (napavalleyregister.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Speculators
say adiÛs to Tucson house market (tucsoncitizen.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Housing
permits lose steam (floridatoday.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Facing
Foreclosure in Wisconsin (wkowtv.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Sacramento
Region built 10 percent of new California housing
Wed May 31 2006 Housing
Bubble Fact or Fiction? (foxnews.com
Tue May 30 2006 How to
Buy a $450K House for $750K (Charles Hugh Smith)
Tue May 30 2006 Buyers
hope for still lower prices as sellers wait for return of boom
Tue May 30 2006 No
one comes knocking, despite lowered price (heraldtribune.com)
Tue May 30 2006 The
Big Glut (barrons.com)
Tue May 30 2006 It's
a renter's market (palmbeachpost.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Real
estate agents may have to throw in the kitchen sink
Tue May 30 2006 California
foreclosure activity is rising (dailynews.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Cape
leads foreclosure surge in MA (capecodonline.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Mortgage
defaults on rise in Chicago (chicagotribune.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Twin
Cities foreclosures climb at record pace (twincities.com)
Tue May 30 2006 The
Growing Financial Risks of the Housing Bubble (Charles Hugh
Smith)
Tue May 30 2006 As
housing market slips, consider new tactics (sunherald.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Easy-to-get
loans cause thousands to lose homes (palmbeachpost.com
Tue May 30 2006 Housing:
More Inventory (Calculated Risk)
Tue May 30 2006 Sales
fall, prices level off as market turns in S. Florida
Tue May 30 2006 Greenspan
Predicts Housing Bust (Mish)
Tue May 30 2006 Hot
ideas for a cooling housing market (miami.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Leading
Realtor sounds warning (orlandosentinel.com)
Tue May 30 2006 To
succeed in a tough market, you've got to change your strategy
Tue May 30 2006 Don't
bet your house on it (economist.com)
Tue May 30 2006 S.
Florida house sales fall in April (miami.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Sales
of used houses plunge (palmbeachpost.com)
Tue May 30 2006 New
houses a hard sell in changing market (sptimes.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Foreclosure
Rates Soar in Metropolitan Chicago (yahoo.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing
prices in S. Fla. remain in a rut (sun-sentinel.com)
Fri May 26 2006 House,
condo sales fall sharply in April (naplesnews.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing
market hangs in Fed's balancing act (usatoday.com)
Fri May 26 2006 New
signs of cooling housing market (Associated Press)
Fri May 26 2006 In
ARMs way: Taking a chance (philly.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Home
Not So Sweet Home (journals.aol.com)
Fri May 26 2006 As rates rise,
foreclosures surge (msnbc.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Fannie
Mae's disgraceful bonuses (sptimes.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Fannie
Mae -- Arrogant, Chastised and Not Reformed (bloomberg.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing
Prices and Use Value (Mike Alexander)
Thu May 25 2006 Mass.
house, condo sales plunge (bostonherald.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Boston
house sales plunge 16.5% in April (lowellsun.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Foreclosure
fear grows in Sacramento region (sacbee.com)
Thu May 25 2006 April
New House Sales: 1,198,000 (Calculated Risk)
Thu May 25 2006 Foreclosures
in Las Vegas Are on The Rise (klastv.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Lower
mortgage rates don't spur loan demand (usatoday.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Is the housing bubble
bursting? (msn.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Study
Finds 'Extensive' Fraud at Fannie Mae (washingtonpost.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Endangered
Species: The Real Estate Agent (freakonomics.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Inflation
and Housing: Calculating the Bust (Charles Hugh Smith)
Thu May 25 2006 Sales
of New Houses Jump Unexpectedly, But Prices Fall
Thu May 25 2006 A
record glut of houses for sale in Mass. should send prices tumbling
Thu May 25 2006 Colorado
Foreclosure Rate #1 Again (krdotv.com)
Wed May 24 2006 US
hard landing starts now (moneyweek.com)
Wed May 24 2006 AZ
real-estate agents optimistic, at least for buyers (newszap.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Fannie
Mae Manipulated Accounting (yahoo.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Fannie
Mae Regulator Says Growth Should Be `Limited'
Wed May 24 2006 Real
estate cool-down has many shifting gears (recordnet.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Housing Prices
vs. "Use Value" (safehaven.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing
futures debut as bubble deflates (reuters.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing
worries continue to cloud economic picture
Tue May 23 2006 Fed's
Fisher says inflation running too high (reuters.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing
disconnect (marketwatch.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Foreclosures up 39
percent in 1Q (msn.com)
Tue May 23 2006 The
high price of land-use planning (sfgate.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Seller
Hires Actors To Pretend Neighborhood Occupied (Steve Bartin)
Tue May 23 2006 Has
the Bubble Finally Burst? (princetoninfo.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Lennar
leaving CO market (coloradoan.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Hawaii
rents turning in tenants' favor (honoluluadvertiser.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Feds
close house appraisal scheme (suntimes.com)
Mon May 22 2006 A
Landing Yes, but Soft?
Mon May 22 2006 The
Growl of a Housing Bear
Mon May 22 2006 California
has the top 11 least-affordable markets
Mon May 22 2006 Right
now, buyers can be choosers
Mon May 22 2006 House
flippers' investments flop
Mon May 22 2006 Housing:
10% Decline May Trigger Financial Ruin
Mon May 22 2006 Buyers
control market
Mon May 22 2006 Home
sellers beware
***
Hidden-Pivot Seminar
Quite a few of you have indicated
you are likely to attend the hidden-pivot seminar in New York
this October. I've also heard from about a half-dozen Australian
readers and subscribers who said they're interested but that
it would be too far to travel. However, I'm willing to come to
Sydney or Melbourne if I can fill a class, so let me please hear
from you if that would work.
The New York session will be
a no-frills version of the course that I gave in Denver, offered
at a significant saving over the original price. After that there
will probably be just one more session offered - in San Francisco,
late in 2006 or early 2007 -- but that would be the last for
a long while.
The course includes post-grad
mentoring via a chat group that some of my former students have
set up. If you've been impressed with the accuracy of my forecasts,
this is an opportunity you should not pass up. Please let
me know via e-mail if you are serious about coming.
***
Rick Ackerman
email: publisher1@rickackerman.com
Information
and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to
be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance
should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so
let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide
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nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security
or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions
in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment
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